Chinese Economics Thread
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In4ser
Junior Member
Everything is relative, China doesn’t need high growth at 8% or more indefinitely to surpass the US, it just needs outgrow the US which is probably going into recession this year and continues to have limited economic prospects in the future with its high debt, low savings, persistent inflation, incompetent government and divided society. That said, China’s power probably would have peaked in the next 10ish years due to demographics like Japan in the 80s and 90s, and S. Korea 2010s-2020s but it thankfully has the West’s own arrogance and stupidity, its growth and power have likely been buoyed for years to come.
Given China’s own structural flaws, its naturally decline would have emerged like it did with corruption in early 2000s and soon with one child policy like every dynastic cycle of regression but America’s and the EU’s reckless actions has solidified the fastest growing regions of Global South’s reliance on BRI, weakened the USD’s reserve status and given cheap energy to hyper charge China’s economy much further into the future. Similar to the “Chinese finger trap,” the harder you try and fight it the more stuck you become, the US and it’s adversity from unilateral sanctions and tech bans have been spurring innovation, unity and purpose within the nation and people instead allowing complacency, weakness and corruption to take hold by acting as a motivating threat.
China’s rise is not indefinite but today is now and tomorrow is the near future, meaning it’s China’s moment and it’s rise with be a gift to the Global South liberating it and much of the world from Western dominion and unshackling their potential through the Eurasian Reformation of the World Order as well as restoring international respect for nation sovereignty and peaceful co-global development.
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China is not even close to industrialized yet. Some provinces are, but China's a big country consisting of more than just a few provinces. Chinese productivity growth rate is high and will remain high for the foreseeable future. The USA is basically flat here.
Even if Chinese internal consumptive demand drops due to elderly folk consuming less, China is investing in the Global South to create new engines of demand that are uncoupled from the West. There's many more favorable things China is doing that more than offset its ageing population. Furthermore, it's not like the US is in a good spot. It has multiple serious problems that I strongly doubt the government has any ability to resolve. Those problems will only get more and more acute as time passes.
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
Younger people are more likely to spend money they don't have or could afford. That's the only reason why the young get that kind of attention. Corporations only care about profits not what's good for the whole. Look at how the West wants to make India and China prize who has more people. Why? Because it's about about those young people and their spending habits. The West likes to claim India has the advantage. They have to have well paying jobs in order to have money. The average age of millionaires in China is younger than in the US. The West fears China growing economic power and influence so does anyone actually believe who ever pays more attention to young people over everyone else is in the better position when the West ignores completely China's superior economic numbers...?
They don't really need high growth. High growth might not even be possible because the economy is too large to grow without essentially being global growth.
Economically, to keep their lead, China just needs to hold better or equally as good as US holds.
Rest is down to geopolitical plays now. Minmaxing allied performance while systematically weakening American controlled countries at the same time.
Together, EU and America economies surpass China. Naturally, China should aim at destroying the EU, both their cohesion as a political entity, as well as their hard economical strength.
That doesn't change how average Chinese productivity and wage levels still have a long way to go to reach the productivity frontier.
It will still be another 15 years for this to double, and this will still not reach current US or European levels.
China is nowhere near a decline stage yet
well, the entire narrative is just overblown because Apple claims that it is decoupling from China when in fact it is actually relying on mainland Chinese suppliers even more by switching to Luxshare and also using more BOE screens.
We will see what happens to Dell. I think it's a political messaging to get government orders.
If you are talking about per capita, I don't think China will ever surpass the U.S. However, high per capita is not a required ingredient to make you become a superpower. The best China can achieve is average to above average income level or top 25%. There are many countries with super high per capita income yet they are not a strong country.
U.S per capita income is going up quite fast and so are the prices of good and service.
Total factor productivity cannot increase if most people are retired. That’s the demographic threat, which has materialized already in Japan and is on the way to doing so in South Korea.
You can read the study on how demographics have fundamentally strangled Japanese TFP growth (with contributions from other reasons, like the Plaza Accords and the rise of competitors).
Average productivity is certain to increase in China. But can it overcome the gravity of a declining work force?