Chinese Economics Thread
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antiterror13
Brigadier
There was something I read out of Bloomberg website a few years ago, that some big boss, a CEO of some major American corporation, said that the future that every big company will be a data company.
His reasoning was that all big companies have huge amounts of data. He gave an example of Boeing and a jet engine. In testing, or in operations, the engine would have sensors around it, and those sensors are basically collecting data. That data will be analyzed later by a powerful computer.
Essentially we can understand where he was going with this. All major companies will have great amount of data collected from their operations or R&D, then they will analyze that using AI soon.
We more or less getting there with China, and probably America too.
The data collection, then taking that through the AI, will make these companies more efficient, and more competitive.
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That was why this US government war against Huawei 5G was that important.
What did Huawei really do? They built the networks that transported this data. Huawei also built world leading data center products, the entire server racks full of top performing servers. Servers that can run AI.
Well, since the Americans could not really win and stop Huawei, they resorted to the chip war. That is basically trying to sabotage the computer in China.
It's kind of silly.
The tech war is kind of like weird, because there are no cards left to play for the Americans. All they can do is hope China collapses.
Gee, wonder where they got that idea from?
The idea came from the greatest negotiator ever lived in the history of humankind, well, at least what he claimed .. whether you agree or not doesn't really matter
China now has FTA agreements with all South American countries with Pacific coastlines, apart from Colombia.
Chile, Peru, and now Ecuador.
Pretty soon China will start winding down investment into high speed rail. We are getting close to diminishing returns here. Maybe in 5 years.
There is a possibility the Maglev technology will become mature enough to use to link the higher density corridors like Beijing-Shanghai. But way more likely than that, I think, the major part of growth in Chinese transportation sector will be in aerospace. As CJ-1000/2000 engines become available and C919/929 production ramps up. It will be time to focus resources on aircraft construction in the second part of this decade.
There is a possibility the Maglev technology will become mature enough to use to link the higher density corridors like Beijing-Shanghai. But way more likely than that, I think, the major part of growth in Chinese transportation sector will be in aerospace. As CJ-1000/2000 engines become available and C919/929 production ramps up. It will be time to focus resources on aircraft construction in the second part of this decade.
Need to build regular rails that link to industrial parks for heavy items.
HSR is only 60% done. Rail much more efficient than planes especially with such restricted civilian airspace. Metros and Inter-City lines will also take more than another decade to get into good shapes. Also there is the objective to have four highly-integrated mega-city clusters. All are short-haul traffic. Not much financial return left but plenty of economic/environmental returns remain (e.g. poverty reduction). China probably spends more money on metros than HSR.
Demographics also important. 2020 - 60 = 1960. The current average school years for all workers in China is only 7 (I read about this recently somewhere). The least educated have reached retirement age. China still must provide sufficient number of unskilled jobs for the next 20 years after which infrastructure will get much more expensive and transition to replacement/upgrade phase necessary. By then, all the steel and concrete factories will also be fully depreciated and time to let go of these polluting industries.
High speed (600 km or more) maglev is super expensive but I doubt China will let Japan to have the bragging rights. Non-stop point-to-point within 300 km (Chengdu - Chongqing, Shanghai - Nanjing) seems more practical.
I see the C919/CJ-1000 more as deterrence and bargaining chip than an attempt to compete with Airbus or Boeing. Reputation and trust take decades to build even within China. I don't see COMAC being a serious challenger in the next two decades. Where and how do you expect local mechanics to learn how to repair a CJ-1000? No accident that the first airline to use the C919 is based in Shanghai. It also takes 20+ years to erase the shoddy product image of a country.
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