Chinese Economics Thread

tphuang

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From Mark Kruger
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He sees a deep contraction in December dragging 2022 growth to just 2.3%. But he says by next year Q4 the economy should fully recover and register 5.8% growth for the year, based on similar models dealing with the 2020-2021 pandemic period.
Yes, there was a huge reduction in economic activity in December.
But it hit China so fast, that it's going away fast too. See these photos from Hangzhou recently.

We've already seen pictures/charts of life coming back in Beijing to close to pre-COVID levels. By the time Chinese New Year is over, the entire country would be passed COVID. So expect a weak Q4 and Q1. Q2 to Q4 should see plenty of growth.
 

Overbom

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worst performer of the year..

Nasdaq and the NYSE both dropped out of the top 10.

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View attachment 104152
I assume that the US companies and their private shareholders don't want to take their companies public when the stock market is crushing. I assume they will resume the normal IPOs in Q42023 - 2024

For China, even though the stock market has declined as well, but competition is truly brutal. You can't afford to wait 1 year or more for your ideal IPO. You just pull the trigger, because if you don't, your competitors will crush you
 

4Runner

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Wish everyone has a happy 2023.

I was looking for a thread on jobs losing to automation. I think I may use this thread to start.

Automation is as old as human history. Today, with AI and advanced electro-mechanical capabilities (including semiconductor), automation is going to make many traditional careers fade away at the mercy of the velocity of this mega trend. Here is my starting list of jobs, with five-star (*****)(quickest) and one-start (*)(slowest), which are going to fade away.

Manufacturing assembly workers *****
Grocery store workers ****
Taxi drivers ***
Truck drivers ***
Customer service (call center) representatives ***
Construction workers **
Bank tellers **
Travel agents **
Insurance agents *
Real estate agents *
Lawyers *
Translators *
 

Overbom

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Wish everyone has a happy 2023.

I was looking for a thread on jobs losing to automation. I think I may use this thread to start.

Automation is as old as human history. Today, with AI and advanced electro-mechanical capabilities (including semiconductor), automation is going to make many traditional careers fade away at the mercy of the velocity of this mega trend. Here is my starting list of jobs, with five-star (*****)(quickest) and one-start (*)(slowest), which are going to fade away.

Manufacturing assembly workers *****
Grocery store workers ****
Taxi drivers ***
Truck drivers ***
Customer service (call center) representatives ***
Construction workers **
Bank tellers **
Travel agents **
Insurance agents *
Real estate agents *
Lawyers *
Translators *
Liberal Arts (art, music) are doomed lol

AI-generated art is crazily good and it even gets increasingly better every 6 months or so.
I am projecting a similar progression for AI-generated music (the music AI has lower capabilities than AI-art currenty)
 

luminary

Senior Member
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Wish everyone has a happy 2023.

I was looking for a thread on jobs losing to automation. I think I may use this thread to start.

Automation is as old as human history. Today, with AI and advanced electro-mechanical capabilities (including semiconductor), automation is going to make many traditional careers fade away at the mercy of the velocity of this mega trend. Here is my starting list of jobs, with five-star (*****)(quickest) and one-start (*)(slowest), which are going to fade away.

Manufacturing assembly workers *****
Grocery store workers ****
Taxi drivers ***
Truck drivers ***
Customer service (call center) representatives ***
Construction workers **
Bank tellers **
Travel agents **
Insurance agents *
Real estate agents *
Lawyers *
Translators *

I like the idea of a thread for this. Do you have a source/article for that list? We should also make a "% workforce replaced by" and "new roles that'll be supervisory/ generated by automation".
I'd put some nurse duties (cleaning surgical rooms, folding bedsheets) as automatable. Hospital scribes are big targets of voice assistants/ NLP. Just look at NYU Health for examples.

Liberal Arts (art, music) are doomed lol

AI-generated art is crazily good and it even gets increasingly better every 6 months or so.
I am projecting a similar progression for AI-generated music (the music AI has lower capabilities than AI-art currenty)
I checked out ChatGPT and it might eventually get good enough to completely replace content mills (rip freelancers and content writers in India) in a few years. Some companies already use bots to write their corporate newsletters (cause no one reads them except for HR I guess).
 

Strangelove

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Report: AI's role in driving growth bigger​


By FAN FEIFEI | CHINA DAILY | Updated: 2022-12-28 09:36

63ab9dc8a31057c4b4b24f9b.jpeg
An employee operates equipment at a smart production facility in Yantai, Shandong province, in November. TANG KE/FOR CHINA DAILY

Companies integrating cutting-edge tech show competitive advantages

Chinese enterprises are planning to increase investment in artificial intelligence as AI is increasingly perceived as one of the drivers in revenue growth and business transformation and integrated into the real economy, according to a new report from global consultancy Accenture.

The report said 34 percent of surveyed Chinese companies used more than 30 percent of their tech budgets for AI projects in 2021. By 2024, the percentage of companies investing over 30 percent of their tech budgets in AI is expected to increase to 64 percent.

AI has become an important competitive advantage for enterprises. Research has found that 13 percent of surveyed Chinese enterprises have used AI to outpace their competitors. This group is dubbed "AI Achievers", with a score of 64 on the maturity scale, almost double that of others and correlating with 50 percent higher revenue growth than their peers.

AI maturity is the degree to which companies outperform their peers in a combination of AI-related foundational and differentiating capabilities, which include cloud computing, data and AI algorithms, as well as AI strategy, talent and innovation culture, Accenture said.

The report estimated the proportion of "AI Achievers" will increase rapidly to 34 percent by 2024. In addition, more than half of the surveyed Chinese enterprises are "AI Experimenters", who have barely scratched the surface of AI's potential and lack mature AI strategies and related capabilities.

Although some industries like high-tech are currently far ahead in their AI maturity, the gap will likely narrow considerably by 2024.There is enormous room for growth in AI adoption across all industries and opportunities for those companies that choose to seize it, the report noted.

For instance, the automotive sector is betting on a big surge in sales of AI-powered self-driving vehicles, while aerospace firms anticipate continued demand for AI-enabled remote systems. The life sciences industry will expand its use of AI in efficient drug development.

The research surveyed 250 Chinese companies in 17 industries, including retail, telecommunications, chemicals, energy, financial services and healthcare between July and September, with their sales revenue surpassing $1 billion in 2021.

"We believe every part of every business must be transformed by technology, data and AI, in some cases resulting in total enterprise reinvention," said Sanjeev Vohra, global lead for applied intelligence at Accenture.

"Adopting AI at scale and embedding it deeper in all aspects of business is no longer a choice but a necessity and opportunity facing every industry, organization and leader," Vohra added.

AI, a key technology for driving digital transformation, is playing an increasingly important role in accelerating China's push for industrial upgrading and promoting the in-depth integration of the digital economy and the real economy.

China has issued a plan setting benchmarks for its AI sector, with the value of core AI industries predicted to exceed 1 trillion yuan ($143.6 billion), making China one of the global leaders in such innovation by 2030.

According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the value of China's core AI industries exceeds 400 billion yuan and the number of related enterprises stands at more than 3,000, with breakthroughs being made in key core technologies such as smart chips and open-source frameworks.

An increasing number of Chinese companies will achieve digital transformation with the help of data and AI, said Chan Tzeh Chyi, managing director of strategy and consulting, applied intelligence lead and chief data scientist at Accenture Greater China.

He added that business executives should accelerate steps to promote the large-scale use of AI, prioritize long and short-term AI investment and allow AI to better integrate into enterprises' overall strategies.

Xiang Ligang, director-general of the Information Consumption Alliance, a telecom industry association, underscored the significance of developing digital technologies represented by AI, which will inject fresh impetus into the country's economic growth and speed up digital and intelligent upgrades in enterprises.

The in-depth integration of digital technologies with the real economy will further reinforce China's advantages in global supply chains, he said.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Wish everyone has a happy 2023.

I was looking for a thread on jobs losing to automation. I think I may use this thread to start.

Automation is as old as human history. Today, with AI and advanced electro-mechanical capabilities (including semiconductor), automation is going to make many traditional careers fade away at the mercy of the velocity of this mega trend. Here is my starting list of jobs, with five-star (*****)(quickest) and one-start (*)(slowest), which are going to fade away.

Manufacturing assembly workers *****
Grocery store workers ****
Taxi drivers ***
Truck drivers ***
Customer service (call center) representatives ***
Construction workers **
Bank tellers **
Travel agents **
Insurance agents *
Real estate agents *
Lawyers *
Translators *
Journalists/Propagandists*****
Plumbers*
Handymen*
General laborers*
Car mechanics*
Electricians*
Waiters*
Cooks*
Janitors*

Tip for NYT/BBC/CNN journos: familiarize yourselves with the scrub and mop.
 

horse

Colonel
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Report: AI's role in driving growth bigger​


By FAN FEIFEI | CHINA DAILY | Updated: 2022-12-28 09:36


Xiang Ligang, director-general of the Information Consumption Alliance, a telecom industry association, underscored the significance of developing digital technologies represented by AI, which will inject fresh impetus into the country's economic growth and speed up digital and intelligent upgrades in enterprises.

The in-depth integration of digital technologies with the real economy will further reinforce China's advantages in global supply chains, he said.


There was something I read out of Bloomberg website a few years ago, that some big boss, a CEO of some major American corporation, said that the future that every big company will be a data company.

His reasoning was that all big companies have huge amounts of data. He gave an example of Boeing and a jet engine. In testing, or in operations, the engine would have sensors around it, and those sensors are basically collecting data. That data will be analyzed later by a powerful computer.

Essentially we can understand where he was going with this. All major companies will have great amount of data collected from their operations or R&D, then they will analyze that using AI soon.

We more or less getting there with China, and probably America too.

The data collection, then taking that through the AI, will make these companies more efficient, and more competitive.

=========== ============


That was why this US government war against Huawei 5G was that important.

What did Huawei really do? They built the networks that transported this data. Huawei also built world leading data center products, the entire server racks full of top performing servers. Servers that can run AI.

Well, since the Americans could not really win and stop Huawei, they resorted to the chip war. That is basically trying to sabotage the computer in China.

It's kind of silly.

The tech war is kind of like weird, because there are no cards left to play for the Americans. All they can do is hope China collapses.

Gee, wonder where they got that idea from?

:D
 
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