Chinese Economics Thread

[Godzilla]

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HSR is only 60% done. Rail much more efficient than planes especially with such restricted civilian airspace. Metros and Inter-City lines will also take more than another decade to get into good shapes. Also there is the objective to have four highly-integrated mega-city clusters. All are short-haul traffic. Not much financial return left but plenty of economic/environmental returns remain (e.g. poverty reduction). China probably spends more money on metros than HSR.

Demographics also important. 2020 - 60 = 1960. The current average school years for all workers in China is only 7 (I read about this recently somewhere). The least educated have reached retirement age. China still must provide sufficient number of unskilled jobs for the next 20 years after which infrastructure will get much more expensive and transition to replacement/upgrade phase necessary. By then, all the steel and concrete factories will also be fully depreciated and time to let go of these polluting industries.

High speed (600 km or more) maglev is super expensive but I doubt China will let Japan to have the bragging rights. Non-stop point-to-point within 300 km (Chengdu - Chongqing, Shanghai - Nanjing) seems more practical.

I see the C919/CJ-1000 more as deterrence and bargaining chip than an attempt to compete with Airbus or Boeing. Reputation and trust take decades to build even within China. I don't see COMAC being a serious challenger in the next two decades. Where and how do you expect local mechanics to learn how to repair a CJ-1000? No accident that the first airline to use the C919 is based in Shanghai. It also takes 20+ years to erase the shoddy product image of a country.

Definitely agree! HS rail relying on electricity will be much more secure than depending on kerosene fueled planes.
They probably still need it to for a soft landing of the real estate market in making a few more small cities/surburbs in semi rural areas along the HS rail routes and let the local government's coffers recover a bit from the land sales.

Having COMAC around will make the likes of Boeing and Airbus lobby against similar sanctions placed on Russia as it would mean not only kissing goodbye to one of the largest markets, but also breeding a massive competitor in COMAC.

 

[tphuang]

for all the headline talks of Apple decoupling from China, I guess it's not so easy

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now that Luxshare has a greater share of Apple final assembly, they can eventually move their assembly to other Asian countries and still control Apple device manufacturing. In my mind, China is moving up supply chain. So while it's nice to continue to keep Apple manufacturing contracts, it's not a huge deal if they replace that with more auto exports.

In Apple's case, it helps them to be able to source from multiple manufacturers. There is no reason Foxconn would be better at taking advantage of Chinese laborer than Luxshare.

 

[Moonscape]

I see the C919/CJ-1000 more as deterrence and bargaining chip than an attempt to compete with Airbus or Boeing. Reputation and trust take decades to build even within China. I don't see COMAC being a serious challenger in the next two decades. Where and how do you expect local mechanics to learn how to repair a CJ-1000? No accident that the first airline to use the C919 is based in Shanghai. It also takes 20+ years to erase the shoddy product image of a country.

Boeing and the FAA have utterly destroyed the reputation of the US aerospace industry in the last few years with the 737 MAX debacle, which makes COMAC's job a little easier.

 

[vincent]

I don't see COMAC being a serious challenger in the next two decades. Where and how do you expect local mechanics to learn how to repair a CJ-1000? No accident that the first airline to use the C919 is based in Shanghai. It also takes 20+ years to erase the shoddy product image of a country.

Ask around in China to find out how many people are willing to ride in a 737Max

 

[supercat]

China's CRCC not only builds HSR in China, they also build subway in Moscow.

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[sunnymaxi]

I see the C919/CJ-1000 more as deterrence and bargaining chip than an attempt to compete with Airbus or Boeing. Reputation and trust take decades to build even within China. I don't see COMAC being a serious challenger in the next two decades. Where and how do you expect local mechanics to learn how to repair a CJ-1000? No accident that the first airline to use the C919 is based in Shanghai. It also takes 20+ years to erase the shoddy product image of a country.

you are clueless about COMAC and Mainland aviation industry.

Where and how do you expect local mechanics to learn how to repair a CJ-1000?

this is the most hilarious statement i have ever read on social media. insane copium

now i tell you about Chinese maintenance, repair and overhaul aero engine industry.



this shop is a 50/50 joint venture of MTU Aero Engines and China Southern Air Holding Company currently located in Zhuhai. It comes equipped with a high tech machine pool and a highly modern test cell accommodating engines up to 150,000 pounds of thrust. The shop specializes in the maintenance, repair and overhaul of IAE V2500-A5 and CFMI CFM56, -5B and -7 and LEAP and PW1100G-JM engines to its portfolio.

this is Asia's biggest and most advance maintenance, repair and overhaul engine facility.

In line with this approach, MTU Maintenance Zhuhai plans to establish a second facility in neighboring Jinwan. The shop will specialize in Pratt & Whitney narrowbody engines, accommodate a test cell with a 65,000 pound thrust capacity and, according to current estimates, have a workforce of around 600 qualified employees. A clear plan is in place: the shop will initially offer capacity for 250 shop visits a year and is expected to start operations in 2024..

and for your information. all mechanics , technicians and engineers are local ethnic Chinese.

now according to your question, from where and how did Chinese mechanics learned repairing those Western made engines? LMAOOO

Training workshops held regularly. every year MTU hire fresh graduates from top Chinese polytechnical institutes . this is how firms trained their labor force.

another news

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RR and and Air China join hands to establish a new maintenance, repair and overhaul facility in Beijing.

Beijing Aero Engine Services Company will service the Trent 700, Trent XWB-84 and Trent 1000 engines. they will follow the same pattern as MTU.

now back to your original question.

Where and how do you expect local mechanics to learn how to repair a CJ-1000?

AECC established complete ecosystem of civil engines in China. EIGHT domestic repair/maintenance firms affiliated with AECC for CJ series engines. once this engine will enter in service, AECC will open 3 major facilities across China in collaboration with those firms for overhauling/repair/maintenance.

I don't see COMAC being a serious challenger in the next two decades

by 2030, Chinese aviation companies will buy Airbus/COMAC planes.

 

[tphuang]

for all the headline talks of Apple decoupling from China, I guess it's not so easy

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now that Luxshare has a greater share of Apple final assembly, they can eventually move their assembly to other Asian countries and still control Apple device manufacturing. In my mind, China is moving up supply chain. So while it's nice to continue to keep Apple manufacturing contracts, it's not a huge deal if they replace that with more auto exports.

In Apple's case, it helps them to be able to source from multiple manufacturers. There is no reason Foxconn would be better at taking advantage of Chinese laborer than Luxshare.

More on this topic.

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BOE now taking most of OLED display contract from Apple. This would be one of the higher value components on iPhones. Huge boost for BOE and their massive 149.8B RMB investment into OLED production lines.

 

[sunnymaxi]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1611191125079109632

Foreign capital flows into Chinese equities have gotten off to a strong start in 2023. As of Thursday's market close, net capital inflows through the northbound trading system into A-shares listed on major bourses on the Chinese mainland exceeded 12.7 billion yuan($1.85 billion)..

told you. 2023 year is going to be huge for Chinese economy.

 

[KYli]

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[kentchang]

you are clueless about COMAC and Mainland aviation industry.


this is the most hilarious statement i have ever read on social media. insane copium

now i tell you about Chinese maintenance, repair and overhaul aero engine industry.

View attachment 104462View attachment 104463View attachment 104464View attachment 104465

this shop is a 50/50 joint venture of MTU Aero Engines and China Southern Air Holding Company currently located in Zhuhai. It comes equipped with a high tech machine pool and a highly modern test cell accommodating engines up to 150,000 pounds of thrust. The shop specializes in the maintenance, repair and overhaul of IAE V2500-A5 and CFMI CFM56, -5B and -7 and LEAP and PW1100G-JM engines to its portfolio.

this is Asia's biggest and most advance maintenance, repair and overhaul engine facility.

In line with this approach, MTU Maintenance Zhuhai plans to establish a second facility in neighboring Jinwan. The shop will specialize in Pratt & Whitney narrowbody engines, accommodate a test cell with a 65,000 pound thrust capacity and, according to current estimates, have a workforce of around 600 qualified employees. A clear plan is in place: the shop will initially offer capacity for 250 shop visits a year and is expected to start operations in 2024..

and for your information. all mechanics , technicians and engineers are local ethnic Chinese.

now according to your question, from where and how did Chinese mechanics learned repairing those Western made engines? LMAOOO

Training workshops held regularly. every year MTU hire fresh graduates from top Chinese polytechnical institutes . this is how firms trained their labor force.

another news

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

RR and and Air China join hands to establish a new maintenance, repair and overhaul facility in Beijing.

Beijing Aero Engine Services Company will service the Trent 700, Trent XWB-84 and Trent 1000 engines. they will follow the same pattern as MTU.

now back to your original question.

Where and how do you expect local mechanics to learn how to repair a CJ-1000?

AECC established complete ecosystem of civil engines in China. EIGHT domestic repair/maintenance firms affiliated with AECC for CJ series engines. once this engine will enter in service, AECC will open 3 major facilities across China in collaboration with those firms for overhauling/repair/maintenance.


by 2030, Chinese aviation companies will buy Airbus/COMAC planes.

When I said 'local', I meant 'local' mechanics in a foreign country as a reason why selling the CJ-1000 abroad would be a real challenge. Of course COMAC has expertise to fix its own AECC engines. Duh! LOL! You wasted so much time cut'n'pasting on wrong interpretation of a single word.

John Leahy explained in a lengthy article in Aviation Week before he retired why maintaining the balance of a duopoly is critical. Any significant tilt is unhealthy for all in the long run. His reasoning still stands and China is well aware of the benefit of maintaining the balance. BOC Aviation ordered 40 737MAX a couple weeks ago. Just ramping up to a low production rate will take a few years. Given the quantity of single-aisle planes needed, there will just be a sprinkle of C919s by 2030. C919 has less seats and has shorter range than its peers. As a commercial product, it is noncompetitive except on price and we found out it is close to $100M so not cheap either.

Like any product, to be able to break onto retail or hanger shelves is a very tough job. Where do you expect them to find the extra space? Build a new shop? Do you really want to know the plane you are flying on is maintained by first generation student mechanics? Maintenance like everything else is an art form and best practices are developed over time. In the beginning, all are just students. By definition, an 'experienced'/'senior' CJ-1000 mechanic takes years, if not a decade or more to qualify.

C919 is a great starting point. Hardest is to go from zero to one but it is just a learning step. Decades of work still ahead to produce aircrafts that airlines want to buy willingly, not shoved down their throats. Until that time, you don't have a viable industry, you just have government subsidies. COMAC stated at the very beginning when it split from AVIC that the goal is to make money, not be another SOE.