The parents didn't raise Millenials and Zoomers to switch and change jobs at the drop of a hat. The boomers running American companies did that. Not sure if you're aware, but American companies don't reward loyalty at all.
Chinese Economics Thread
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The parents didn't raise Millenials and Zoomers to switch and change jobs at the drop of a hat. The boomers running American companies did that. Not sure if you're aware, but American companies don't reward loyalty at all.
Excellent. The moral hazard generated by central government bailouts needs to be removed.
Something worthwhile to think about as we head into a new year.
Russia accumulated about $150 billion in forex reserves from 2015 to 2021, so it added about $25 billion a year. Let's say the Russians buys 60% of its new reserves in RMB over the next couple of years from the trade surplus it runs with China, then it can very quickly get to $200 billion of reserves in RMB if we count the Yuan reserves it already has (17.1% of over $600 billion of currency/gold reserves in start of 2021-> $100 billion) and maybe even more if they are somehow able to move the USD/EUR reserves to Yuan/Gold
That would be a large portion of the $336 billion global forex reserve currently held in RMB.
It would also be a good move in increasing the value of RMB. And if the GCC countries make good on the agreement to accept oil payments in Yuan, then that will be even more possible areas of forex increase.
At the same time, they really need to start dumping more treasuries and eurobond in light of the current geopolitical tensions.
They are importing record amount of electricity from Russia. Makes total sense for Russia to export the excessive electricity from its natural gas plants.
At the same time, we know they are buying record amount of oil from Russia now that Europeans are no longer getting it.
In my mind, they should work with the Russians to blend it with Chinese oil and market it on Shanghai exchanges as Chinese product for resale. That would allow Shanghai exchange to do even more business. At the end of day, getting cheap energy is good, but getting cheap energy while forcing more countries to use RMB is even better for the Chinese economy.
If you want to be optimistic, feel free to read Zoltan's piece again on this
Russia accumulated about $150 billion in forex reserves from 2015 to 2021, so it added about $25 billion a year. Let's say the Russians buys 60% of its new reserves in RMB over the next couple of years from the trade surplus it runs with China, then it can very quickly get to $200 billion of reserves in RMB if we count the Yuan reserves it already has (17.1% of over $600 billion of currency/gold reserves in start of 2021-> $100 billion) and maybe even more if they are somehow able to move the USD/EUR reserves to Yuan/Gold
That would be a large portion of the $336 billion global forex reserve currently held in RMB.
It would also be a good move in increasing the value of RMB. And if the GCC countries make good on the agreement to accept oil payments in Yuan, then that will be even more possible areas of forex increase.
At the same time, they really need to start dumping more treasuries and eurobond in light of the current geopolitical tensions.
They are importing record amount of electricity from Russia. Makes total sense for Russia to export the excessive electricity from its natural gas plants.
At the same time, we know they are buying record amount of oil from Russia now that Europeans are no longer getting it.
In my mind, they should work with the Russians to blend it with Chinese oil and market it on Shanghai exchanges as Chinese product for resale. That would allow Shanghai exchange to do even more business. At the end of day, getting cheap energy is good, but getting cheap energy while forcing more countries to use RMB is even better for the Chinese economy.
If you want to be optimistic, feel free to read Zoltan's piece again on this
D
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Pretty much. On that front China is already a global power, even if wealth and living standards wise its still not up to par with Japan or Germany. Same as how India despite having more poor than Subsaharan Africa, just on its sheer size alone, can exert more global influence than relatively better off states like Thailand or Malaysia.
Anyways getting up to industrialized status and a good standard of living for all Chinese is within reach. It'll probably only take a decade or so for China's HDI to reach Very High and per capita gdp nominally to reach $25,000, which is kind of the IMF's unofficial designation for a fully developed country. I don't know if China can ever get to America's per capita gdp level, but I'm not sure it has to either. Getting to industrialized status is already a monumental achievement for a country of that scale and size. And if I'll be brutally honest, I think China may be one of the last global south countries to be able to attain it, since everyone else thanks to automation and climate change may not be so lucky.
China at $25K per capita is roughly one-third of the US figure.
Given that China is on the cusp of becoming a high tech nation in every field, China being stuck at this low figure doesn't make sense.
It should easily reach twice this figure of $25K
By making the old richer and making a huge and sustainable grey economy.
what is more likely is that their GDP declines. China, despite being a high tech nation in every field, generally has companies which charge lower prices and accepts lower profit margins to gain market share. As Chinese products get even more competitive while keeping prices low, it puts pressure on everyone else to decrease prices too, or go out of business. This phenomena is well known as cabbagization and is one reason why certain countries are going apeshit - they're losing their monopoly pricing power. China winning means they'll lose their privileged positions and to a person of privilege, equality is oppression.
Just look at Hisense and TCL TVs almost driving Sony, Panasonic, etc out of business with their low prices while expanding the LCD TV market to even the poorest countries.
Yes, but what it means is that the "exchange rate and prices" equalise between China and the US/Europe/Japan/etc
a few interesting items.
Currency swap with Argentina would help more trade settlement with Argentina in RMB and this helps with lithium purchases and such.
some general strength in USD/CNH trade so far this year. Mostly due to USD dropping from its highs of last year, but probably also due partly to increasing confidence in Chinese economy from outside investors.
$3 billion in 4 days into Chinese stock markets through HK doesn't sound like a lot, but it's a good start for China trying to make its market a place where foreign investors can hold their money. USD is normally the currency of choice for central banks due to its liquidity and its reputation as safe haven and ease of investment in USD bdenominated assets
More on Petroyuan discussion. Again, don't expect it to happen overnight. It's going to be a slow movement where they get more and more energy exporters to trade on Shanghai exchanges and then encouraging other countries to buy from Shanghai.
For example, if Venezuelans want to find customers, they can list their oil on Shanghai exchanges or get it blended/refined in China and then sold.
Currency swap with Argentina would help more trade settlement with Argentina in RMB and this helps with lithium purchases and such.
some general strength in USD/CNH trade so far this year. Mostly due to USD dropping from its highs of last year, but probably also due partly to increasing confidence in Chinese economy from outside investors.
$3 billion in 4 days into Chinese stock markets through HK doesn't sound like a lot, but it's a good start for China trying to make its market a place where foreign investors can hold their money. USD is normally the currency of choice for central banks due to its liquidity and its reputation as safe haven and ease of investment in USD bdenominated assets
More on Petroyuan discussion. Again, don't expect it to happen overnight. It's going to be a slow movement where they get more and more energy exporters to trade on Shanghai exchanges and then encouraging other countries to buy from Shanghai.
For example, if Venezuelans want to find customers, they can list their oil on Shanghai exchanges or get it blended/refined in China and then sold.