Chinese Economics Thread

[Minm]

Trend growth in China likely to be 4-5% for the next decade

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1579633982375100416

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1582167065229606912

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1581766963088400385

China has outperformed nearly every other middle-income economy in the recent few years

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1576867332533559296

They must have listened to a different speech than I did. He clearly stated that China aims for a per capita GDP similar to a mid level developed country, ie around 20,000 USD, which was previously declared a target. Pretty sure countries like Lithuania and Portugal count as mid level developed and they're a bit above 20k USD. Of course this number is going to change with very high inflation in "advanced" economies, so it's better not to target a specific number, but a specific peer group

To build a modern socialist country in all respects, we must, first and foremost, pursue high-quality development. Development is our Party's top priority in governing and rejuvenating China, for without solid material and technological foundations, we cannot hope to build a great modern socialist country in all respects. We must fully and faithfully apply the new development philosophy on all fronts, continue reforms to develop the socialist market economy, promote high-standard opening up, and accelerate efforts to foster a new pattern of development that is focused on the domestic economy and features positive interplay between domestic and international economic flows.

He literally called development the top priority of the party. Of course development should include more than simple GDP per capita, it includes technological development as well.

During an economic war with a great power that is suffering from many insecurities and is obsessed with gaining face it's dangerous to proclaim openly that you're going to displace them as the largest economy. It's better to be polite and not point out that China will soon be larger in nominal terms

 

[BoraTas]

Trend growth in China likely to be 4-5% for the next decade

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1579633982375100416

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1582167065229606912

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1581766963088400385

China has outperformed nearly every other middle-income economy in the recent few years

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1576867332533559296

I don't know how these think-tankers still talk about zero-covid when everyone is getting disastrous results by ignoring covid.

 

[siegecrossbow]

I don't know how these think-tankers still talk about zero-covid when everyone is getting disastrous results by ignoring covid.

At least they don’t need to burn 100 euro logs to keep warm because their ally decided to bomb the gas pipeline.

 

[SanWenYu]

China found a large shale gas field in Sichuan. It is the result of a breakthrough in shale gas exploration. This field has the gas reserve of 387.8 billion cubic meters.

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成都10月18日电(杜成 袁鹏)中国石化西南石油局18日透露，该局在四川盆地部署的金石103HF探井获高产稳产工业气流，日产天然气25.86万立方米，评价落实地质资源量3878亿立方米。据悉，这是我国首次在寒武系筇竹寺组地层取得页岩气勘探的重大突破，开辟了页岩气规模增储新阵地，对推动四川盆地页岩气勘探开发具有重要意义。

 

[j17wang]

China found a large shale gas field in Sichuan. It is the result of a breakthrough in shale gas exploration. This field has the gas reserve of 387.8 billion cubic meters.

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FYI this is equivalent to 2.3 billion barrels of oil. Not the biggest, but not bad.

 

[Andy1974]

China found a large shale gas field in Sichuan. It is the result of a breakthrough in shale gas exploration. This field has the gas reserve of 387.8 billion cubic meters.

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Sorry, it’s 38.7 billion.

 

[j17wang]

2.3 billion barrels of oil is ~2 years of global oil consumption

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No its not. World production and consumption is 100 million barrels a day. 2.3 billion barrels is 23 days of oil consumption for the world.

 

[Biscuits]

They must have listened to a different speech than I did. He clearly stated that China aims for a per capita GDP similar to a mid level developed country, ie around 20,000 USD, which was previously declared a target. Pretty sure countries like Lithuania and Portugal count as mid level developed and they're a bit above 20k USD. Of course this number is going to change with very high inflation in "advanced" economies, so it's better not to target a specific number, but a specific peer group



He literally called development the top priority of the party. Of course development should include more than simple GDP per capita, it includes technological development as well.

During an economic war with a great power that is suffering from many insecurities and is obsessed with gaining face it's dangerous to proclaim openly that you're going to displace them as the largest economy. It's better to be polite and not point out that China will soon be larger in nominal terms

That boat about not being the largest economy kinda sailed a long time ago, like in 2016 (?). Hence America has committed the trade war aggression which however was a complete rout.

Frankly if most major countries are limping at recession rates, nothing short of a miracle can give China more than 5% growth. Even 5% would be insane.

There is not enough growth in the global economy to sustain China's own growth. Rather than creating empty economy, China should turn more towards kneecapping its competitors while building high living standards at home by redistributing wealth from the ultra wealthy to the low and middle classes.

EU's ability to reinforce America economically is already being actively neutralised. If EU is knocked out of the equation, China will for the first time in recent history have not just the largest gdp among single countries, but larger economy than what the entire West can bring to bear in a conflict. This in turn is vital to out bidding the west when it comes to neutrals like OPEC which are traditionally bribed by the west but can easily turn sides.

 

[gelgoog]

I think for at least the next 3 years if not 5 years there will still be a lot of investment into transportation infrastructure like rail and metro systems in China. Closer to the end of the decade China could try getting into larger projects like the maglev connecting the major cities. The rate of urbanization will also likely continue after a brief period of consolidation of the housing sector over the next couple of years.

China's semiconductor and aviation industries are still growing and I expect their major growth to come nearer the end of the decade once China assimilates the whole manufacturing chain and controls the technologies top to bottom. I also expect China to become a major car exporter this decade with the move to electric.

 

[Minm]

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Let's see when the year is over. The third quarter was probably quite good and fourth quarter might be very good unless there's a major lockdown, which would be a disaster.

I remember a certain president of a silly country predict that the US would grow faster than China this year. How did that work out?