Chinese Economics Thread

[OppositeDay]

I think China will see continued sequential growth in the 4th quarter. Zero Covid will prob ease somewhat as the government shifts focus to economic recovery after the Party Congress. External demand based on export growth will remain good. Prob see growth of 3-4% in the 4th quarter if covid policies can be relaxed. Overall annual growth can still be around 3%. Not too bad.

No chance China will ease restriction heading into winter. At this point Chinese public's level of immunity is significantly less than peer countries due to 1) less effective vaccines and 2) no natural immunity from infections. Chinese healthcare system is also overall less capable. It's going to be a public health disaster to ease restriction now.

The biggest hope is on new Chinese vaccines. Livzon is testing a nasal spray version of its bivalent fusion protein vaccine. CanSino is developing its second generation aerosolized adenovirus vector vaccine. China can end lockdown if one of them work out and there's production capacity available (doubtful for CanSino). At this point we're waiting for a technological miracle.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

No chance China will ease restriction heading into winter. At this point Chinese public's level of immunity is significantly less than peer countries due to 1) less effective vaccines and 2) no natural immunity from infections. Chinese healthcare system is also overall less capable. It's going to be a public health disaster to ease restriction now.

The biggest hope is on new Chinese vaccines. Livzon is testing a nasal spray version of its bivalent fusion protein vaccine. CanSino is developing its second generation aerosolized adenovirus vector vaccine. China can end lockdown if one of them work out and there's production capacity available (doubtful for CanSino). At this point we're waiting for a technological miracle.

can you explain for me, a simple person, in what world does effective vaccines allow 1+ million deaths in some certain country and inflicts ~1% population loss in most others? thanks.

 

[KYli]

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[Biscuits]

No chance China will ease restriction heading into winter. At this point Chinese public's level of immunity is significantly less than peer countries due to 1) less effective vaccines and 2) no natural immunity from infections. Chinese healthcare system is also overall less capable. It's going to be a public health disaster to ease restriction now.

The biggest hope is on new Chinese vaccines. Livzon is testing a nasal spray version of its bivalent fusion protein vaccine. CanSino is developing its second generation aerosolized adenovirus vector vaccine. China can end lockdown if one of them work out and there's production capacity available (doubtful for CanSino). At this point we're waiting for a technological miracle.

Lol what. Complete misinfo on "less effective vaccines". Good healthcare can be subjective but in terms of life expectancy, China is ahead of most of the western population.

Almost every country that managed to acquire inactivated vaccines from China has had minimal Covid hospitalizations, especially China itself. There's a reason inactivated is the gold standard for vaccines overall.

Meanwhile countries using certain rushed vaccines are having more deaths in a week than China had in the entire pandemic, with patients being hospitalized even after 4-5 shots.

 

[Minm]

The Chinese vaccination campaign is quite old. We know vaccine efficacy wanes quickly for all vaccines. By now, protection against infection is minimal, even if there's still protection against death. Before China can open up everybody needs to get at least one more dose, ideally two. And every autumn in the next few years should have another booster shot campaign, just like for flu. Maybe the new walvax mRNA vaccine should be used because by now many people erroneously assume that mRNA means better efficacy. The fact that they haven't even started a vaccination campaign yet means that there will be no reopening in the next couple of months


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It's going to be an interesting winter. Maybe China's zero covid policy is going to become suddenly popular again when a few hundred thousand people die from covid in Europe and America over the next few months

 

[xypher]

The Chinese vaccination campaign is quite old. We know vaccine efficacy wanes quickly for all vaccines. By now, protection against infection is minimal, even if there's still protection against death. Before China can open up everybody needs to get at least one more dose, ideally two. And every autumn in the next few years should have another booster shot campaign, just like for flu. Maybe the new walvax mRNA vaccine should be used because by now many people erroneously assume that mRNA means better efficacy. The fact that they haven't even started a vaccination campaign yet means that there will be no reopening in the next couple of months


Meanwhile in the West:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

It's going to be an interesting winter. Maybe China's zero covid policy is going to become suddenly popular again when a few hundred thousand people die from covid in Europe and America over the next few months

Yeah, they'll probably pass deaths from freezing as COVID deaths and lockdown to prevent dissent

 

[CMP]

Using only the data coming in from states that are still keeping track (very many are not), the US losses are still oscillating between 300-450 per day. Even if we pretend this willful lack of data collection isn't happening, it's still the equivalent of losing a small city every year. In contrast, I don't think China can withstand the human price of ending zero covid, and so I do not expect zero covid to end.

 

[56860]

Using only the data coming in from states that are still keeping track (very many are not), the US losses are still oscillating between 300-450 per day. Even if we pretend this willful lack of data collection isn't happening, it's still the equivalent of losing a small city every year. In contrast, I don't think China can withstand the human price of ending zero covid, and so I do not expect zero covid to end.

The deaths are not the main issue. Most of them are old people, although a few young do die too. The main issue is long covid. Every infection and reinfection increases the chance of a healthy worker being disabled.

 

[xlitter]

The deaths are not the main issue. Most of them are old people, although a few young do die too. The main issue is long covid. Every infection and reinfection increases the chance of a healthy worker being disabled.

Over time, the real sequelae of COVID-19 will slowly unravel, such as known effects on the brain, effects on reproductive function, psychological effects, shortage of healthy manpower and so on! What's more, it is still unknown how much damage the repeated infection will cause to human body. Time will tell. In such an unknown situation, recklessly letting go of COVID-19 control will cause irreversible disaster!

 

[Minm]

The deaths are not the main issue. Most of them are old people, although a few young do die too. The main issue is long covid. Every infection and reinfection increases the chance of a healthy worker being disabled.

There's also the high bill for expensive ICU treatment