Chinese Economics Thread

[Derpy]

can you explain for me, a simple person, in what world does effective vaccines allow 1+ million deaths in some certain country and inflicts ~1% population loss in most others? thanks.

Most of the deaths were before vaccines and before omicron, the numbers can also be misleading since some countries reported deaths WITH not of COVID. Basically if someone died they cross ran the registry's and if they had tested positive in the last 30 days they were counted as COVID deaths even if they died in a car crash..
It is a stark difference in how the illness is perceived though between Countries, I live in Sweden and got COVID for the second time some weeks ago along with almost half the company i work for, no one really cared, the remainder of the people didn't even bother using masks. It is treated like any other cold or sniffles, you stay home and watch Netflix for 5 days then return if you got no fever.

 

[escobar]

A slowing global economy plus speeding manufacture capacity relocation to Vietnam and India is bad news for manufacturing sector.

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[KYli]

Most of the deaths were before vaccines and before omicron, the numbers can also be misleading since some countries reported deaths WITH not of COVID. Basically if someone died they cross ran the registry's and if they had tested positive in the last 30 days they were counted as COVID deaths even if they died in a car crash..
It is a stark difference in how the illness is perceived though between Countries, I live in Sweden and got COVID for the second time some weeks ago along with almost half the company i work for, no one really cared, the remainder of the people didn't even bother using masks. It is treated like any other cold or sniffles, you stay home and watch Netflix for 5 days then return if you got no fever.

No matter how much you try to spin it. Excess deaths doesn't lie. Both EU and the US have too much excess deaths in 2022 to claim that covid isn't a problem anymore.

 

[MortyandRick]

A slowing global economy plus speeding manufacture capacity relocation to Vietnam and India is bad news for manufacturing sector.

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Quote

"China’s export growth is finally retreating towards more normal pre-pandemic levels after two years of exceptional growth on a high base, (amid) a slowing global economy and a post-pandemic shift in the consumer preferences of developed economies towards services,” economists led by Lu Ting at Nomura Holdings Inc. said in a report in early September.

Still having growth in this type of environment is actually surprising. The western world going into recession.

 

[AndrewS]

A slowing global economy plus speeding manufacture capacity relocation to Vietnam and India is bad news for manufacturing sector.

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Note China is on track for a record $1 Trillion trade surplus this year.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-26/china-s-1-trillion-trade-boom-won-t-stop-yuan-slide-macquarie

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Most of the deaths were before vaccines and before omicron, the numbers can also be misleading since some countries reported deaths WITH not of COVID. Basically if someone died they cross ran the registry's and if they had tested positive in the last 30 days they were counted as COVID deaths even if they died in a car crash..
It is a stark difference in how the illness is perceived though between Countries, I live in Sweden and got COVID for the second time some weeks ago along with almost half the company i work for, no one really cared, the remainder of the people didn't even bother using masks. It is treated like any other cold or sniffles, you stay home and watch Netflix for 5 days then return if you got no fever.

Are you sure? Here's the statistics. Vaccines were released December 2020.

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350k deaths at vaccine release in December 15, 2020.

600k deaths in July 2021 (7 months later)

1 million deaths in March 2022 (7 months later)

Seems to me that you didn't do your research. Most of the deaths were after vaccine release.

 

[Biscuits]

A slowing global economy plus speeding manufacture capacity relocation to Vietnam and India is bad news for manufacturing sector.

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This period marks the start of "who loses less" contest rather than who can grow the fastest. At least China has a sizeable head start and isn't in recession right now.

More than 4% growth is impossible I think. Even 4 alone would be a miracle.

 

[Derpy]

Are you sure? Here's the statistics. Vaccines were released December 2020.

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350k deaths at vaccine release in December 15, 2020.

600k deaths in July 2021 (7 months later)

1 million deaths in March 2022 (7 months later)

Seems to me that you didn't do your research. Most of the deaths were after vaccine release.

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Vaccine roll out was very slow at start, by the 600k deaths in July 2021 only 50% of the U.S population had two shots. Today only 68% have it, doesn't matter how good a vaccine is if the people are to dumb to take it..

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

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Vaccine roll out was very slow at start, by the 600k deaths in July 2021 only 50% of the U.S population had two shots. Today only 68% have it, doesn't matter how good a vaccine is if the people are to dumb to take it..

Based on complete vaccination rate of 50% in July 2021 with claimed 95% efficacy, infection rate of 10% (35 million) in July 2021, it means 57.5% of the population is immune from prior infection or vaccination.

You can put this information into the SIR differential equations. We can just look at the recovered/infected+vaccinated as term R. Once R surpasses ~50% of population infection rates drop.

So if in July 2021 the vaccination + infection rate is indeed as claimed, with initial population 350, R should be at the the 201.5 point and daily infections declining.

That did not occur, there was instead a rise through August 2021 and then a huge spike in December 2021. That would suggest greater than 57.5% susceptibility.

The possible explanation, since I being undercounted means lower susceptibility S (higher R), not lower, is the vaccination efficacy being overestimated.

 

[Han Patriot]

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Vaccine roll out was very slow at start, by the 600k deaths in July 2021 only 50% of the U.S population had two shots. Today only 68% have it, doesn't matter how good a vaccine is if the people are to dumb to take it..

US still has a death rate of 500 ppl/day. Roughly 60k died since Chinese lockdown in Shanghai.