Chinese Economics Thread

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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
escobar said:
The so-called “shift of Chinese manufacturing industry to Southeast Asia” is actually a “spillover” of China’s economy to the region.Specifically, China is transferring some parts instead of the whole process to Vietnam, mainly those with high labor costs. In the manufacturing process, the intermediate goods are still provided by China, which means the core of the industrial chain is still in China.
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Vietnam suffers from lack of infrastructure. Their rail infrastructure is atrocious and the power generation capacity is severely constrained.
This means you mostly see low energy input factories with high amounts of hand assembly so there is little chance of Vietnam getting out of its hole without major changes to policy.

Vietnam has almost twice the population of South Korea so in theory it could have a pretty large economy but I see the government moving way too slowly on investment.
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
gelgoog said:
Vietnam suffers from lack of infrastructure. Their rail infrastructure is atrocious and the power generation capacity is severely constrained.
This means you mostly see low energy input factories with high amounts of hand assembly so there is little chance of Vietnam getting out of its hole without major changes to policy.

Vietnam has almost twice the population of South Korea so in theory it could have a pretty large economy but I see the government moving way too slowly on investment.
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Rail is really suited for distances over 500km, but there simply aren't that many journeys like this in Vietnam.
For journeys under 500km, cars and trucks are better suited as they can travel point-to-point within a day.

There's really only the Hanoi-Saigon route which is 1200km apart.
So Vietnam doesn't really need any rail infrastructure apart from a single line running from Hanoi down to Saigon.
 
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henrik

Senior Member
Registered Member
AndrewS said:
Rail is really suited for distances over 500km, but there simply aren't that many journeys like this in Vietnam.
For journeys under 500km, cars and trucks are better suited as they can travel point-to-point within a day.

There's really only the Hanoi-Saigon route which is 1200km apart.
So Vietnam doesn't really need any rail infrastructure apart from a single line running from Hanoi down to Saigon.
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Vietnam's long coast line makes it easy for exports. Most places in vietnam are close to the coast.
 
2handedswordsman

2handedswordsman

Junior Member
Registered Member
gelgoog said:
Vietnam suffers from lack of infrastructure. Their rail infrastructure is atrocious and the power generation capacity is severely constrained.
This means you mostly see low energy input factories with high amounts of hand assembly so there is little chance of Vietnam getting out of its hole without major changes to policy.

Vietnam has almost twice the population of South Korea so in theory it could have a pretty large economy but I see the government moving way too slowly on investment.
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Finally, the metro lines in Ho Chi Minh and Hanoi are gradually coming into operation. (God this insane traffic I want to ride a 125cc bike over there one day) The railway between the two capital cities needs to be upgraded and normalized so that there is no need to transfer goods to other trains during their interconnection with international networks. A standard gauge dual powered line would be ideal. in general, I imagine Vietnam to be something like China in the late 90s and early 2000s, with Vietnamese characteristics :) I believe that Vietnam which is also governed by a Leninist-style one-party democratic centralism, some say authoritarianism, would be the next pearl of Asia in the coming decades
 
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