Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
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Passenger-km is a poor metric if you want to measure aircraft sales. And yes because China is on the other side of the world to most tourist or business destinations those figures will be inflated. China's economy is just larger than Russia overall but even here you can see that the number of passenger-km does not scale linearly with population. With Russia having more km per population than China.
Passenger-km is the best metric to use, because it does reflect the [number of aircraft] x [seats] x [distance required]
Hong Hao is known to be what folks call a "traffic-based influencer" in China.
Zero Covid now making this year's GDP growth only 2-3%. The CCP planned for 5% or more. The more the policy fails, the more its supporters approve of it. Pretty hilarious.
I no longer think ZC will be removed next year. I suspect it will be kept on due to popular support. Well, who am I to judge? If China wants this, let them have it. They will have to bear the consequences of much lower growth. The national security implication it carries are significant: convergence with the US will take much longer than we all thought a few years ago.
Not that blind ZC supporters in this forum seem to care.
The GS chart that he quotes is quite specific, in that it describes the number of cities with middle/high risk districts and calculates the presumed GDP that is locked down by summarizing those cities. Below I show a more robust description from Morgan Stanley that illustrates the picture more clearly (As of Sept 6). To be clear, things aren't good, but aren't as bad as in April.
To be more precise as to why GDP impact isn't as bad as April, companies have adapted in terms of operating in lockdowns - Meituan/Ele.me will have playbooks they can take off the shelf to operate in Chengdu from their hard taught lessons in Shanghai. Another indicator - intercity freight traffic, is not nearly as bad as it was in April.
None of this is good, but there is some nuance to the bad data.
I posted this before, but I will post it again since it is relevant to the discussion of rent as % of GDP regarding China vs US.
2019 data:
: ~13%.
: ~10.5%. (in fact, real estate, rental, leasing are smaller than 10.5% of China's GDP because this includes business services as well)
Construction is and 7.2% of China GDP, although construction obviously encompasses much more than just real estate construction and China has a higher percentage because it builds more highways, railways, ports, dams, grids, and other public infrastructure.
If we look at the non-service sector i.e. industrial production (mining + manufacturing + utilities + construction) + agriculture, then it would constitute about 45% of China's GDP but only around 19% of US' GDP.
2019 data:
: ~13%.
: ~10.5%. (in fact, real estate, rental, leasing are smaller than 10.5% of China's GDP because this includes business services as well)
Construction is and 7.2% of China GDP, although construction obviously encompasses much more than just real estate construction and China has a higher percentage because it builds more highways, railways, ports, dams, grids, and other public infrastructure.
If we look at the non-service sector i.e. industrial production (mining + manufacturing + utilities + construction) + agriculture, then it would constitute about 45% of China's GDP but only around 19% of US' GDP.
escobar
Brigadier
The so-called “shift of Chinese manufacturing industry to Southeast Asia” is actually a “spillover” of China’s economy to the region.Specifically, China is transferring some parts instead of the whole process to Vietnam, mainly those with high labor costs. In the manufacturing process, the intermediate goods are still provided by China, which means the core of the industrial chain is still in China.
The manufacturing that has spilled over to Vietnam and SEA is still being managed by Chinese companies, but now with cheaper Vietnamese workers.
