Orangepox
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
- Start date
Bloomberg still at it. Are they trying to push a narrative or is this the reality on the ground?
They want any gullible folks to sell Chinese assets at bargain prices so Bloomberg and friends can buy them on the cheap.
Bloomberg is a well-known fake news press. Remember when they lied about "Supermicro"?
Indeed, the time is not yet. Even with a 90% vaccination rate China would still have 140 million vulnerable, which can lead to a million or more excess deaths. Does anyone know why China doesn't have a vaccine mandate? Do people really prefer lockdowns over a vaccine mandate? Half-assed lockdowns combined with over-stimulus plus the asinine Russia sanctions are certainly missteps by the west. China has chosen the better path, but could it be even better with a vaccine mandate and further relaxation of zero-COVID?
The thing is that China has very few people with real exposure, making them even more vulnerable.
You mean very few vulnerable people were killed by the virus so far, unlike other countries.
Why superstitious vaccine? The current vaccine can't catch up with covid-19 mutation. If there is no dynamic reset, what will happen? Some papers have done research on this.
Our simulated baseline scenario suggests that, in the absence of strict NPIs, the introduction of the Omicron variant in China in March 2022 could have the potential to generate a tsunami of COVID-19 cases. Over a 6-month simulation period, such an epidemic is projected to cause 112.2 million symptomatic cases (79.58 per 1,000 individuals), 5.1 million hospital (non-ICU) admissions (3.60 per 1,000 individuals), 2.7 million ICU admissions (1.89 per 1,000 individuals) and 1.6 million deaths (1.10 per 1,000 individuals), with a main wave occurring between May and July 2022 (Figs. and ).
Those numbers are in the absence of strict non-pharmaceutical interventions (vaccines, treatments, lockdowns) though, as stated in the paper. In fact, the paper suggests that vaccines and treatments can indeed make a big difference, 60.8% decrease in deaths with vaccine alone, 88.9% decrease in deaths with treatment alone. Combining the two presumably would reduce deaths further, but surprisingly (or unsurprisingly knowing how big pharma operates) there has been no study on the use of Paxlovid in the vaccinated. Would this be an acceptable disease burden for relaxing zero-COVID?
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We investigated separately the impact of three categories of strategies to mitigate COVID-19 burden: (1) vaccination, including heterologous booster doses and promoting vaccination coverage among unvaccinated individuals aged ≥60 years, (2) antiviral therapies and (3) NPIs. Regarding booster vaccination, if we consider the administration of a heterologous booster based on a subunit vaccine (subunit vaccines scenario) in the low immune escape scenario, little difference would be observed in terms of COVID-19 burden (Fig. ); on the other hand, in the high immune escape scenario, a larger decrease of COVID-19 burden (8.4% in the number of deaths and 17.7% in the number of hospital admissions) could be achieved by administrating a heterologous booster based on a subunit vaccine (Extended Data Fig. ). Filling the gap in the vaccination coverage among the elderly (that is, vaccinating all eligible individuals aged 60 years or more), including both primary and booster vaccination as in the baseline scenario (vaccinating elderly scenario) would lead to a 33.8%, 54.1% and 60.8% decrease in hospital admissions, ICU admissions and deaths, respectively (Fig. ).
In the absence of NPIs, assuming that 50% of symptomatic cases could be treated with the approved Chinese COVID-19 BRII-196/BRII-198 combination therapy, which has been reported to be 80% effective in preventing hospitalization and death, a 36.5%, 39.9% and 40.0% decrease in hospital admissions, ICU admissions and deaths is estimated (50% uptake and 80% efficacy scenario). In the best-case scenario in which all symptomatic cases are treated with the highly efficacious oral COVID-19 drug nirmatrelvir tablet/ritonavir tablet combination (which is 89% effective in preventing hospitalization and death and has already been used in China), the number of hospital admissions, ICU admissions and deaths could be reduced substantially by 81.2%, 88.8% and 88.9% (100% uptake and 89% efficacy scenario) (Fig. ).
Thats about right, my calculations were also around 1-2 million dead. ICU requirement would have imploded. So yes, the current Chinese strategy makes sense.