The West supplies chain has been crippled. All Western nations have hyperinflation. A few Western countries are going into reccession soon. If this is so called winning, then I don't know what is losing.
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
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1. You don't get cold in the summer. Cold is seasonal. Covid is all year around.
2. You don't get long cold but you do get long covid.
3. Cold rarely causes pneumonia but covid does cause pneumonia in many patients.
4. Covid is many times more contagious than cold.
5. Covid kills ten times more in elderly than cold does.
Covid isn't cold and can't be treated as such. Living with covid means that you need to accept a 15% rise in mortality. If you are willing to accept the excess deaths, you still need to deal with constantly pressure from overwhelmed hospitals and a major rise in absentees due to covid that result in supplies chain breakdown. In the end of the day, you are not sure that you would come out ahead by living with covid but you are sure to have many more deaths. It is not an easy choice but don't try to claim living with covid would solve all the problems and help the economy.
The date says otherwise. Many Western nations are already in recession. Australia needs to restart payment to sick leaves due to so many people have gotten covid. Japan is trying to contain a covid outbreak soon would overwhelm its hospitals. Taiwan is unable to stamp out covid and even lower the infections after months. The truth is living with covid just make you feel better but covid is still rattled and disrupted the economy and causing mayhem.
2. You don't get long cold but you do get long covid.
3. Cold rarely causes pneumonia but covid does cause pneumonia in many patients.
4. Covid is many times more contagious than cold.
5. Covid kills ten times more in elderly than cold does.
Covid isn't cold and can't be treated as such. Living with covid means that you need to accept a 15% rise in mortality. If you are willing to accept the excess deaths, you still need to deal with constantly pressure from overwhelmed hospitals and a major rise in absentees due to covid that result in supplies chain breakdown. In the end of the day, you are not sure that you would come out ahead by living with covid but you are sure to have many more deaths. It is not an easy choice but don't try to claim living with covid would solve all the problems and help the economy.
The date says otherwise. Many Western nations are already in recession. Australia needs to restart payment to sick leaves due to so many people have gotten covid. Japan is trying to contain a covid outbreak soon would overwhelm its hospitals. Taiwan is unable to stamp out covid and even lower the infections after months. The truth is living with covid just make you feel better but covid is still rattled and disrupted the economy and causing mayhem.
1. You do get the cold in the summer. Maybe you're thinking of the flu? There's some seasonality to it, but clearly COVID also has its biggest spike in winters so it also has some seasonality to it.
2. That's probably true, though I'm still a bit skeptical about long COVID due to the very imprecise way it's defined and investigated. The reported prevalence seems rather high, but I've yet to seen one in all my patients and colleagues or friends, and the vast majority of them have had COVID.
3. COVID also rarely cause pneumonia in the vaccinated, and I'm seeing it less and less.
4. It does appear that COVID is more contagious than almost any respiratory illness I know of, but perhaps that's because it's a novel illness.
5. That's probably ballpark true, as the elderly don't have a less response to the vaccine as well. With that said, given how contagious COVID has gotten, there's no way you can get around this. Vaccines, while less effective in the elderly, will reduce risk to an extent that the risk of lockdowns on mortality may be higher.
What I'm trying to say is that the answer is not so clear. I do favor living with COVID, not because the risk/benefit ratio for mortality/economy benefits is definitively better, but because life is more predictable that way. A relatively constant stream of COVID infections, the far bigger majority of which are now mild due to vaccines, makes life a bit more predictable than alternating full openings and strict lockdowns.
You dismiss it as "living with covid just make you feel better", but I wouldn't underestimate the benefit of feeling better, even if objectively nothing really is better. People are more comfortable with a more predictable life, they feel more secure when they can plan ahead. A less anxious population can be a great positive, even if the overall mortality rate or GDP growth doesn't change.
Who are you to second-guess people who have forgotten more about economics and epidemiology than you will ever know?
I am making one simple point that is covid is very active even in the summer. Seasonal or not, many countries within a few weeks would have a major surge of covid that would overwhelm their hospitals. Flu or cold doesn't usually overwhelm the hospitals in the summer.
Doesn't matter. You have people spending tens of thousands to treat long covid and you have people who quit their jobs due to the long covid. It is enough to cause mayhem.
Date says otherwise.
pneumonia was present in 78% of unvaccinated patients, but only 41% of fully vaccinated patients
The amount of excess deaths in each country says otherwise. A few countries doing lockdown actually don't have any excess deaths or even less deaths than expected.
It is your choice. Not my choice or other people's choice. In the end of the day, I am here to argue that living with covid doesn't quarantee a better economy. And I don't agree with your argument that overall mortality would be the same. It is clearly not true.
That radiology study is done on people who are admitted to the hospital for COVID, so obviously the rate of having radiographic evidence of pneumonia is gonna be similar. It's actually surprising that there's a difference.
As for mortality, strict lockdowns protect all, vaccination only protect the vaccinated, so of course a strict lockdown would result in less mortality. Mortality in the US for example is primarily driven by the unvaccinated. I wouldn't advocate for abandoning zero-COVID without a vaccine mandate with free vaccinations. Even at 90% vaccination rate, China would have 140 million vulnerables.
The BA.1 subvariant started the omicron wave this year. Then BA.2 quickly took over by April. By May it was BA.2.12.1. A month later it is BA.5 and spreading fast. The virus is not going to stop mutating unless you develop a silver bullet to completely eradicate it.
The Spanish Flu of 1918 is still with us. But life mostly returned to normal by 1920/21 because people developed immunity to it. Death rates in the US was highest among Native Americans who had the lowest rates of past exposure.
Rapidly mutating virus likely evolved over time into less lethal strains (in most cases). This is predicted by models of natural selection.
So in the end, it doesn’t matter what the Chinese government want or doesn’t want, we are going to have infections, reinfections, and have to learn to live with Covid.
The Spanish Flu of 1918 is still with us. But life mostly returned to normal by 1920/21 because people developed immunity to it. Death rates in the US was highest among Native Americans who had the lowest rates of past exposure.
Rapidly mutating virus likely evolved over time into less lethal strains (in most cases). This is predicted by models of natural selection.
So in the end, it doesn’t matter what the Chinese government want or doesn’t want, we are going to have infections, reinfections, and have to learn to live with Covid.
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No, now the vaccine can't catch up with the mutation. Since it is mutation, there must be unpredictable situations. Who dares to bet on whether there will be highly fatal mutation. In view of the original intention of the Chinese government to protect people's lives, the dynamic zeroing will continue until the central epidemic prevention expert group believes that it can be liberalized! Now the ninth edition of the guidelines for epidemic prevention has relaxed the entry quarantine to 7+3, which has aroused objections in China. The call for the restoration of 14+7 is not low, and epidemic prevention experts specially came out to explain this matter!
I dare to bet against highly fatal mutation. It's counter to natural selection. Besides, you can always reinstitute dynamic zeroing if such a mutation occurs.