Chinese Economics Thread

[NiuBiDaRen]

Oh we have a few armchair PhD epidemiologists here

 

[escobar]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1548446910276546560

 

[KYli]

For the last few decades, the labor force participation of youth has dropped from over 70% to under 50%. As more youngsters pursue higher education, there creates a mismatch of allocation of employment. As there is extreme scarcity of blue collar workers but at the same time high paying white collar jobs dry up with intense competition.

Parents refuse to recognize this trend and relentlessly push their children to get into higher education regardless if their children have the capability to do so or not. That is why tutoring has become such a big business.

It is typical to have an increase of youth unemployment after June as graduates or undergraduates start looking for jobs. In a normal year, youth unemployment would increase from 10% to 14%. Due to a slow down in economy and covid, a crackdown on property developers, internet giants and tutoring companies, the youth unemployment has jumped from 14% to 19%.

The solution to such problem isn't easy. But there are still plenty of jobs out there in China. It is just newly graduates might need to lower their asking prices or taking jobs that might have nothing to do with their majors.

 

[eprash]

For the last few decades, the labor force participation of youth has dropped from over 70% to under 50%. As more youngsters pursue higher education, there creates a mismatch of allocation of employment. As there is extreme scarcity of blue collar workers but at the same time high paying white collar jobs dry up with intense competition.

Parents refuse to recognize this trend and relentlessly push their children to get into higher education regardless if their children have the capability to do so or not. That is why tutoring has become such a big business.

It is typical to have an increase of youth unemployment after June as graduates or undergraduates start looking for jobs. In a normal year, youth unemployment would increase from 10% to 14%. Due to a slow down in economy and covid, a crackdown on property developers, internet giants and tutoring companies, the youth unemployment has jumped from 14% to 19%.

The solution to such problem isn't easy. But there are still plenty of jobs out there in China. It is just newly graduates might need to lower their asking prices or taking jobs that might have nothing to do with their majors.

Maybe a Universal basic income scheme?

 

[Bob Smith]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1548446910276546560

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World Bank value for China is 11.4% in 2021. Did it nearly double in 1 year or is this random twitter account simply inaccurate?

 

[Overbom]

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World Bank value for China is 11.4% in 2021. Did it nearly double in 1 year or is this random twitter account simply inaccurate?

The figure given in the tweet about youth unemployment in China is correct

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Nearly one out of five young jobseekers were unemployed last month as China’s youth unemployment rate hit an all-time high of 19.3 per cent in June, official figures show. It was a sharp rise from 18.4 per cent in May, and marked a year-on-year increase of 25 per cent.

This was largely the result of Beijing’s zero-Covid strategy, which forced large-scale lockdowns in Shanghai and other major cities – far from ideal conditions in which China’s latest army of fresh college graduates were plunged into.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has previously noted that new graduates generally push the unemployment rate upward come June and July each year, but the youth unemployment rate has seen a steady rise since October. And it has been breaking records since hitting 18.2 per cent in April – which had marked the highest point since China first started publishing the monthly data in 2018.

Adding a record 10.76 million college graduates into an already tightening job market simply kept pushing the rate farther skyward. And data shows that young Chinese are faring worse in their job market than their peers in other major economies.

In June, the youth unemployment rate for the same age group in the United States was 8.1 per cent. In May, the European Union’s youth unemployment rate was 13.3 per cent. And Japan’s rate in May was 3.8 per cent.

NBS spokesman Fu Linghui said on Friday that Chinese youth indeed face accented employment pressure, which he said must be stabilised.

“Affected by the pandemic, companies’ ability to absorb employment has declined, and young people’s job-search channels have also been hampered under the constrained conditions,” Fu said

Fiercer competition and mass lay-offs at private firms have further added to the job-market woes. And industries that traditionally absorb a large number of new graduates – including internet firms, the finance industry, the real estate sector and the private-tutoring industry – have all suffered amid wide-ranging regulatory crackdowns.

Even after its two months of lockdowns ended as June began, Shanghai’s urban unemployment rate of 7 per cent for the month remained significantly higher than the national average of 5.5 per cent. And the city’s second-quarter unemployment rate of 12.5 per cent was vastly worse than the national average of 5.8 per cent.

Looking to the year’s second half, weak domestic consumption and service-sector activity amid zero-Covid will remain strong headwinds in China’s labour market, according to Louis Kuijs, APAC chief economist at S&P Global Ratings.

“High-frequency data suggests that newly imposed restrictions in several cities are again weighing on momentum,” he said. “Thus, it remains to be seen how much unemployment can fall in the coming months.”

Basically, zero-covid is a wrecking ball on employment

 

[JewPizza]

For the last few decades, the labor force participation of youth has dropped from over 70% to under 50%. As more youngsters pursue higher education, there creates a mismatch of allocation of employment. As there is extreme scarcity of blue collar workers but at the same time high paying white collar jobs dry up with intense competition.

Parents refuse to recognize this trend and relentlessly push their children to get into higher education regardless if their children have the capability to do so or not. That is why tutoring has become such a big business.

It is typical to have an increase of youth unemployment after June as graduates or undergraduates start looking for jobs. In a normal year, youth unemployment would increase from 10% to 14%. Due to a slow down in economy and covid, a crackdown on property developers, internet giants and tutoring companies, the youth unemployment has jumped from 14% to 19%.

The solution to such problem isn't easy. But there are still plenty of jobs out there in China. It is just newly graduates might need to lower their asking prices or taking jobs that might have nothing to do with their majors.

Has the CPC started an initiative to encourage more people to do trade jobs?

 

[Bob Smith]

The figure given in the tweet about youth unemployment in China is correct

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Basically, zero-covid is a wrecking ball on employment

Well then it's self inflicted rather than some underlying structural problem and therefore, temporary. We will see after the 20th party congress whether this zero covid policy is for political reasons or that the CPC just really cares about all their old people dying off.

 

[Overbom]

Has the CPC started an initiative to encourage more people to do trade jobs?

Yes

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[Chish]

I agree with @Bltizo that

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is a little over the top, but it does say some truths.





And much more bitter truth that makes Westerners squirm. Plus some hope for the exploited and abused countries:

That article is not from Egypt. It is from Daily Express news from Sabah, a state in East Malaysia. Mainly read by the people of Sabah, has little national readers and practical no international readers.