Chinese Economics Thread

[weig2000]

Regarding the news from the usual Western sources about the Chinese economy, one propaganda line the evil Western media will always use.

In China, as we know, there are three holiday periods in the year, where everyone gets a week off or something like that.

Those periods are obviously, New Years, May Day for the workers, and October 1 the establishment of the PRC.

Factory production, and those PMI for all sectors, always go down. There is a week long holiday coming. Of course no one in business will stock up in factory inventory.

Do you understand what PMI stands for?

Yet, that is what we tend to read all the time in the West press. The two weeks before the big holidays in China, the Western media is all over this economy slow down, and bad PMI.

Disinformation.

Do you have any evidence for this? Doesn't need all the time, just some. I'm very familiar with western media and all their tricks, but your assertion would be something new to me.

 

[Overbom]

More focus on the platform economy. I assume that means that the regulatory action against Big Tech will ease

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[Overbom]

that it is beginning to clog up this thread and using economic news and statistics as a way of trying to promote their own, already well established views of zero covid in isolation.

PMI data is impartial. It doesn't matter if its because of zero covid or not. Data is data

And the Composite PMI is at 37. For anyone who understands even a little of economics, this is nothing short of a disaster-class. No other words to describe about this.

Anyway, I will stop this here. I said my piece, other have done the same. Agree to disagree and lets move on

 

[Blitzo]

PMI data is impartial. It doesn't matter if its because of zero covid or not. Data is data

And the Composite PMI is at 37. For anyone who understands even a little of economics, this is a disaster-class. No other words to describe about this.

Anyway, I will stop this here. I said my piece, other have done the same. Agree to disagree and lets move on

Yes, the data is impartial.

But the way you are presenting the information implicitly and explicitly in relation to zero covid is not very subtle at all. We all understand the effects that zero covid has had, and there have been devastating effects on the economy recently.
However, at this point, do we need posts every other day about zero covid's effects on the economy? The disapproval that yourself and others have conveyed towards zero covid has already been well established.

Posting about the economic effects is fine.
But using it as a basis to complain about zero covid is now getting very tedious for the readers of this thread.


China's covid policy will be dependent on the government, and the economic sequelae will be dependent on the way that covid policy is adjusted going forwards, their economic policies and incentives, as well as other global factors.

People will have to accept that there will not be an immediate turn around in China's zero covid policy nation wide.

 

[B.I.B.]

I didn't watch the program and I assume that you had and based your opinion on their opinions. If you and their assumptions are honestly genuine, then China will never will be a threat or a worthy competitor. So US and like-minded partners should be happily vouching for Xi instead of poo pooing China's strategy. So why do you think they are so zealous in constraining China even at the
consequences of seriously harming themselves instead of progressing together? Something doesn't compute.

You are mistaken if you think I am in agreement with this organisation's guests' viewpoints. Because I have never heard of this organization is why I decided to watch the program.
I was surprised when one of the guests said China had a high school dropout rate of over 60% and over time it could go on to create social problems.

 

[PiSigma]

You are mistaken if you think I am in agreement with this organisation's guests' viewpoints. Because I have never heard of this organization is why I decided to watch the program.
I was surprised when one of the guests said China had a high school dropout rate of over 60% and over time it could go on to create social problems.

60% drop out rate? The Americans are projecting again.

They must have included all those seniors that never finished high school in the data!

 

[zgx09t]

Those ISM, Caixin/Markit, NBS indices in question are indicators for speed, not strength, for which one would need a different set of index.
The reason they come into play is mainly due to the timing of their release date. Their correlation to the actual strength of the economy is an interesting subject. Each has their own diffusion and weight. They are supposed to be used in conjunction with other data, not alone on their own. Saying alarming words like devastating and shitting all over just because speed indicator is showing a slowing down is just a sign of two halves not adding up to the whole. Look around. Connect the dots, figure things out. See the grand scheme of the things. All the major economies like G7, including China, are under at least 50 basis points revision in QII, based on knowing what we know today. Inflation is robbing everyone in Western bloc, while China is diligently fighting a public health issue, facing the liability up front and paying for it. The Western bloc, as usual, kicks the liability down the road and shows a slight gain, just like how they do in financial engineering. It didn't work out well for the society vs. the oil industry, or any industry vs. society - it is the society that's left holding the bags. Inflation is the big killer of service industry, as well as goods, but not as much as services. People would rather choose to eat than go to a spa, as most of the services are discretionary. In China case though, it's just a pent up demand, both goods and services will rebound. China's infrastructure and logistics, including the cold chain which is one major item in current government spending, along with her manufacturing prowess, would make it sure there's no bottlenecks that'd turn inflation up, unlike what's happening in the Western bloc.

 

[Overbom]

In China case though, it's just a pent up demand, both goods and services will rebound. China's infrastructure and logistics, including the cold chain which is one major item in current government spending, along with her manufacturing prowess, would make it sure there's no bottlenecks that'd turn inflation up, unlike what's happening in the Western bloc.

It is being said that the push on infrastructure spending at the start of the year will be reflected in June. So I expect very good economic figures for June , the only question would be the final Q2 GDP figures which I maintain my position that they will either be negative or neutral (imo negative)

 

[Red Moon]

60% drop out rate? The Americans are projecting again.

They must have included all those seniors that never finished high school in the data!

Actually, the guy said "not one day of high school".

 

[tokenanalyst]

PMI data is impartial. It doesn't matter if its because of zero covid or not. Data is data

And the Composite PMI is at 37. For anyone who understands even a little of economics, this is nothing short of a disaster-class. No other words to describe about this.

Anyway, I will stop this here. I said my piece, other have done the same. Agree to disagree and lets move on

Of course data is data, in 2020 the index was at 27% the lowest ever, because this is not a war and there is not real physical destruction, demands could pick up even higher than before (a some sort of spring effect). That is why is dangerous to stimulate in this circumstances because once the demand bounce back like a spring, if there a surplus of cash in the economy it could increase inflation. Of course that will depends when they will have the outbreak controlled the sooner the stronger will be the "spring effect".