Chinese Economics Thread

Jiang ZeminFanboy

Senior Member
Registered Member
Point taken on the rest of your post. Lets move to this then to make sone predictions.


Q2 consists of April, May, June.
So let's see what we have for April:

>50 is expansion, <50 is contraction.
View attachment 88346

I personally think May will be better but still a contraction though. IMO it will be a miracle if composite PMI for May is >47 and <50

So the last one is June. A bit too far away to speculate but I still think that overall, Q2 will be a contraction or (at best) neutral gdp growth.

Let's mark this as a prediction then. Between contraction and neutral gdp growth I think it will be contraction.
They can increase gdp by increasing investment in infrastructure bigly just what is happening now, but that's short term solution, with crashing services and consumption and weak industry.
 

SanWenYu

Captain
Registered Member
They are asking business owners

Its like asking a normal businessman on what to do about his business, seems pretty normal to me.

Guess how many of them will increase or decrease investment.



In any case, its pretty normal to make surveys even when they are on lockdown. Its a survey, that's what they supposed to do, to get responses and then release the results. Now if they are going to change their minds later on (I assume that's your argument) is irrelevant because they can simply take another survey next month/weeks and then release more results.

90% is a huge number though. Of course, this is an exaggerated response by the business owners but it still provides a valuable metric to grasp Shanghai's SMEs in the service industry.

Given the recently released Caixin PMI services number, I would trust the survey results more if I were you (not saying that they are 100% correct though)
No doubt the small mediu businesses are hard hit. But it would be more fair and objective if the pollster had split those "wait and see" respondents from the "about to close" ones. Combining these two groups into one can exerggerate the situation.

Looks like this was what the author wants to present. It is sentimental at the best.
但是这些人,现在居然有九成准备或者已经躺平了。
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
please, you clearly post it to show how devastated China is
I post whatever the economic news are. This past month was economically devastating, so naturally I post the news that are, shocking I know, devestasting.

Stop being disingenuous
You should contact the State Council and the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBSC) and request that they stop posting "negative" news then. Dont point your finger at me, instead call at the relevant department and complain if you wish to do so

A number taken without context is meaningless.
All economic numbers released are within context and describe their methodology. Again, I am asking you to send a complaint letter if you are so offended by "negative" news and numbers. I can even send you an official address if you wish to do. Every state agency can then process your letter take appropriate measures to take into account your concerns

A lab says that my blood sugar is 150. What does it mean? What should I do?
It doesn't mean jackshit and I will do nothing.
You should contact your doctor. I don't offer medical advice


A survey is a survey. The link was provided, so you can easily read the article if you want. One survey shows one thing in April, and another survey shows another thing in May. Your attacks and arguments are akin to screaming to the clouds. You could also contact the survey team and ask them to conduct the same survey for this month as well
 

KYli

Brigadier
With the new round of infrastructure spending I hope they reform rural planning while they're at it.

Currently rural China is extremely inefficient. There are way too many "village outposts" aka random villages with 10-20 households scattered all over the map. This makes it very expensive to provide electricity/sewage/road coverage and is a huge cockblock for industrial farming, compared to a road/grid based system

Low hopes though because the problem is way too widespread
Unlikely, many elderly refused to move. In addition, the Chinese government could only provide subsided housing for these people. Even though it would cost only 100,000 to 200,000 yuan. But for many rural people, it is still too much. I think the last attempt to do so got backfire and many negative press that the central government decided to postpone any aggressive actions to dismantle these rural outposts for now.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
That's one interpretation of his intentions, there are others. I don't care much what his intentions are (the road to Hell is paved with good intentions), I care about what effects his participation in these threads has on the quality of discussion. His industrial cherry-picking of negative news and spamming it here is getting tiresome.
Not even mentioning that you still haven't refuted any of these "bad news". Go and check your own "sources".

The news I post, I also quote straight from official figures.

Tell me if you think this is good or bad news? Also tell me if you think that April was good or sht for the economy? Finally, tell me if you consider these kinds of news "contributing" to the forum or not?
IMG_20220505_211658.jpg

Yes, PMI data are fake as well. Tell me @ZeEa5KPul , is this data fake or real? How about Your Excellency goes to Caixin and the National Bureau of Statistics and educate them on how to release "positive" PMI news?

I think what you are here is not for real news but about spreading lies and fake news. Otherwise, why would someone take offence because "negative" economic news are posted in a forum?
 

Chish

Junior Member
Registered Member
Has anyone watched this program
"Chinas Economic Rise..... The End of the Road":


Although I have read some aspects of the discussion on this forum, much is rather new to me and leaves me wondering how relevant is their opinion?
My takeway from this, is that Pres Xi has and is making a lot of mistakes.
I didn't watch the program and I assume that you had and based your opinion on their opinions. If you and their assumptions are honestly genuine, then China will never will be a threat or a worthy competitor. So US and like-minded partners should be happily vouching for Xi instead of poo pooing China's strategy. So why do you think they are so zealous in constraining China even at the
consequences of seriously harming themselves instead of progressing together? Something doesn't compute.
 

Coalescence

Senior Member
Registered Member
Damn, the thread got heated when I was gone. But anyways, this negative news should be expected because of lockdowns and external pressure, but it doesn't mean its the end of China nor that they can't do anything to fix it.
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With the easing of the epidemic situation in Shanghai, local authorities have rushed to roll out a package of measures to reduce the burdens on businesses and guarantee disruption-free supply chains to bolster agricultural and industrial recovery.
A meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee on April 29 said that the established policies will be swiftly implemented, including tax refunds and reductions, fee cuts and a range of monetary policy tools. Moreover, additional goal-oriented policies will be designed and carried out in a timely manner and given some leeway.
In addition to targeted consumption coupons granted to low-income groups, the central government could issue general consumption coupons worth a total of some 1.4 trillion yuan to residents, "the sooner, the better," Li noted.

Multiple localities in China have already issued coupons and digital "red envelops" among a variety of benefits. Tech hub Shenzhen in South China's Guangdong Province which has just emerged from recent COVID-19 outbreaks has issued a total of 500 million yuan coupons starting from Thursday, one of the largest sums announced by a Chinese city so far.
So they're doing similar actions to what the finance policies the West did during their pandemic to stimulate the economy during "lockdown", and I think they could get away with it without suffering similar fiscal problems the former has if they execute it correctly. This would help revitalized those SME business that were battered by the lockdowns.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Posting a wide range of news is of course productive for generating discussion, but much of the "news" posted about it in relation to zero covid is now so well treaded, that it is beginning to clog up this thread and using economic news and statistics as a way of trying to promote their own, already well established views of zero covid in isolation.

By incessantly posting those articles either implicitly or explicitly in relation to zero covid, the news is no longer about Chinese economics but about Chinese covid policy.

This isn't a formal warning or anything, but as an observation of the way the direction this thread has headed.


we get it.jpg
 

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
Regarding the news from the usual Western sources about the Chinese economy, one propaganda line the evil Western media will always use.

In China, as we know, there are three holiday periods in the year, where everyone gets a week off or something like that.

Those periods are obviously, New Years, May Day for the workers, and October 1 the establishment of the PRC.

Factory production, and those PMI for all sectors, always go down. There is a week long holiday coming. Of course no one in business will stock up in factory inventory.

Yet, that is what we tend to read all the time in the West press. The two weeks before the big holidays in China, the Western media is all over this economy slow down, and bad PMI.

Disinformation.

:oops::rolleyes::p
 
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