Very reliable. Just like the survey of Americans after Trump won. I am still waiting for them to move to Canada.
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
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They are asking people who are in lockdown what their "sentiments." It's like asking a person who just finishes a crappy 18 hour shift. Guess how many of them will say they'll quit vs who actually quit.
They are asking business owners
Its like asking a normal businessman on what to do about his business, seems pretty normal to me.
Guess how many of them will increase or decrease investment.
In any case, its pretty normal to make surveys even when they are on lockdown. Its a survey, that's what they supposed to do, to get responses and then release the results. Now if they are going to change their minds later on (I assume that's your argument) is irrelevant because they can simply take another survey next month/weeks and then release more results.
90% is a huge number though. Of course, this is an exaggerated response by the business owners but it still provides a valuable metric to grasp Shanghai's SMEs in the service industry.
Given the recently released Caixin PMI services number, I would trust the survey results more if I were you (not saying that they are 100% correct though)
What are you expecting from these people to say otherwise? Considering the current trend, mood, and financial distress not to mention health distress people who participated on the survey are undergoing. Of course all of their negative outlook will reflect on the poll.
It's hard to imagine asking someone from any country feeling rather optimistic when you're under severe stress. It would have been shocking and dubious to see any polls that would reflect a rather rosy outlook because that would be just pure propaganda.
Any economic news coming from these regions will simply reflect the current mood of the people what am curious to find out and look for is what's the numbers going to look like in the 2nd quarter and if the trend is a continuation of a downward economic trend. I would rather have the government and policy officials look at thus snapshot of data or business sentiment so that they can make policy adjustments looking from a macro set of information. But having said that, I feel for the people who have lost anything financially, and loved ones from this virus. I can't however approve or support the notion that China should have or ought to mandate vaccinations and all will be well. None of us can seriously say that with a straight face without considering the context of China that's wholly different from countries being peddled here as an example worth emulating.
Take that with a truck of salt, what they are going to do when the demand comes back?
With the new round of infrastructure spending I hope they reform rural planning while they're at it.
Currently rural China is extremely inefficient. There are way too many "village outposts" aka random villages with 10-20 households scattered all over the map. This makes it very expensive to provide electricity/sewage/road coverage and is a huge cockblock for industrial farming, compared to a road/grid based system
Low hopes though because the problem is way too widespread
Currently rural China is extremely inefficient. There are way too many "village outposts" aka random villages with 10-20 households scattered all over the map. This makes it very expensive to provide electricity/sewage/road coverage and is a huge cockblock for industrial farming, compared to a road/grid based system
Low hopes though because the problem is way too widespread
please, you clearly post it to show how devastated China is. Stop being disingenuous. A number taken without context is meaningless.
A lab says that my blood sugar is 150. What does it mean? What should I do?
It doesn't mean jackshit and I will do nothing. And any doctor telling you otherwise is a hack.
Point taken on the rest of your post. Lets move to this then to make sone predictions.
Q2 consists of April, May, June.
So let's see what we have for April:
>50 is expansion, <50 is contraction.
I personally think May will be better but still a contraction though. IMO it will be a miracle if composite PMI for May is >47 and <50
So the last one is June. A bit too far away to speculate but I still think that overall, Q2 will be a contraction or (at best) neutral gdp growth.
Let's mark this as a prediction then. Between contraction and neutral gdp growth I think it will be contraction.
Q2 consists of April, May, June.
So let's see what we have for April:
>50 is expansion, <50 is contraction.
I personally think May will be better but still a contraction though. IMO it will be a miracle if composite PMI for May is >47 and <50
So the last one is June. A bit too far away to speculate but I still think that overall, Q2 will be a contraction or (at best) neutral gdp growth.
Let's mark this as a prediction then. Between contraction and neutral gdp growth I think it will be contraction.
I am starting to believe that zero covid is about power, and in that case we are witnessing attempts to overthrow Xi with such movements intended to incite people internally. If Xi will wade into this policy, and lockdowns will be constantly appearing in different cities like Hu Xijin said in recent commentary, then that's a last year of his standing as a general secretary of CPC, or if he manage to take 3rd term he will be a paper president with no real power.