They are underestimating.
However.. if China has a another covid lockdown mess Shanghai-style, then 4.4% would be about right.
So the question should be:
Do you think that China will have more such Covid lockdowns from now till the end of the year?
It's often misleading to frame the issue as economic growth vs people's lives. That might be true for a short time, say the first few months at the beginning of the covid breakout.
Now, after two and half years, the headline numbers are no longer just numbers; they also condense a lot of what's going on in the wider economy and society: rising unemployment, bankruptcies, increasing debts, missed mortgage payments, falling behind in kid's tuition, hunger, deteriorating health if not worse, divorce and suicides.
It is also not right to frame it as rich vs poor. It's actually the poor and middle class that have borne the most burden and hardship resulting from lockdowns and are most affected. At least in the US, the government printed tons of money to handover to the relatively poor. In addition, the crackdowns on tech sector and real estate sector have further contributed to the worsening prospect of middle-class and economy at large. I suppose nobody still indulges in the so-called "revenging bounce-back" after you've been through in the last few years.
