Chinese Economics Thread

[dfrtyhgj]

China is almost ready to handle the real virus.

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You don't really need to tax the people when you can print money to fund jobs, and recover that money for cancellation through State Owned Corporations. The advantage of the Chinese system of meritocracy all the way to the top will soon become undeniable.

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[weig2000]

Zero COVID is the cornerstone of Chinese services growth. People are demanding it. If government doesn't impose zero COVID expect self quarantine, taking vacation to self lockdown, and for those who can't, riots and mob violence targeting those seen as disease spreaders.

I disagree strongly. It's actually killing Chinese service growth, to the point the government has to rely almost entirely export for growth, and more recently reverting again to heavy infrastructure spending and relaxing on real estate sector to compensate. Chinese consumption had almost caught up with the US one two years ago, but is now 20% behind.

It will be 100x more harmful to drop zero COVID. It isn't a choice between lockdown or free commerce, it is between orderly lockdown with everyone obeying the law or disorderly lockdown due to mass quitting, riots, burning, looting, mob violence, etc.

This sounds more like scaring tactics, like characterizing the approaches other countries adopt as "lying flat" strategy (and those countries are not just western ones by the way). Agreeing with you that there is a wide spectrum between lockdown and free commerce, but the way it is characterized in China now is binary: zero COVID vs lying-flat (清零与躺平).

This has multiple cases of historical precedence including during early COVID where cars with Hubei plates were blocked from Jiangxi by angry mobs.

It's actually getting worse than just Hubei/Wuhan lockdown - it's everywhere and who knows where next, and it's not just blocking Hubei/Wuhan but between each province, city, district and community. The supposed organization and execution efficiency of Chinese system can also amplify and backfire in other direction or worse (“层层加码”). If you shift your eyes away from COVID cases and any presumed potential or projected deaths, you will find looming crisis building up. The signs are everywhere.

This would be my last post in this thread about Chinese COVID policy. This is very controversial now and can cause a lot of emotional and even political debates, something that I'm not willing to engage too much here. But feel free to express your opinion.

 

[dfrtyhgj]

"the impact on the local GDP is only half of the impact of the non-dynamic zero-COVID strategy on the economy, Wu added, citing the preliminary mathematical analysis."

Dynamic zero-cases is the only way to survive and win the upcoming total biological war. This is the central thesis of total Chinese victory.

Practice makes perfect, the real virus has the same incubation time, same infectivity, but with 25-99.99% lethality instead of 0.0% with the practice virus. Every country that is not following China's lead in practicing containment is going to be absolutely devastated and may cease to exist afterwards.

 

[escobar]

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[dfrtyhgj]

China's GDP PPP is 27,206.27 billions international dollars vs US 22,9997.50 billions making it 118% of the US GDP Nominal. In 2020 it was 115% of US GDP PPP.

China's GDP nominal is 17,458.04 billions USD vs US GDP nominal at 22,9997.50 billions making it 75.9% of USD GDP nominal. In 2020 it was 70.3% of US GDP nominal.

China's GDP nominal is now larger than the entire European Union which stands at 17,094.17 billion USD, so China surpasses the EU by a bit more than $360 billion USD. On another note, China's GDP nominal is now more than 3 and a half times Japan's GDP nominal.

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Meanwhile the Yen is no longer accepted by the non Western world, where all the resources are from. Putin Xi cooperation will slay the Beast.

 

[KYli]

I disagree strongly. It's actually killing Chinese service growth, to the point the government has to rely almost entirely export for growth, and more recently reverting again to heavy infrastructure spending and relaxing on real estate sector to compensate. Chinese consumption had almost caught up with the US one two years ago, but is now 20% behind.

Chinese service sector growth has been slow down due to more than one reason. One of them is the government cracking down on lavish spending of party officials especially in the catering and hospitality industry. Another reason is the recent crackdown on borrowing especially those college kids and just enter the work forces youngsters. Covid is just one of the reasons of slow down in consumer spending.

This sounds more like scaring tactics, like characterizing the approaches other countries adopt as "lying flat" strategy (and those countries are not just western ones by the way). Agreeing with you that there is a wide spectrum between lockdown and free commerce, but the way it is characterized in China now is binary: zero COVID vs lying-flat (清零与躺平).

Of course it is lying flat, you give up on containing the virus and let the virus goes rampant and infects everyone. If it isn't lying flat, then what is. For any countries that decided to live with covid, they would eventually give up fighting covid and just pretend covid doesn't exist. Do you not hear that everyone claiming that covid is just a cold through MSM or average joes?

It's actually getting worse than just Hubei/Wuhan lockdown - it's everywhere and who knows where next, and it's not just blocking Hubei/Wuhan but between each province, city, district and community. The supposed organization and execution efficiency of Chinese system can also amplify and backfire in other direction or worse (“层层加码”). If you shift your eyes away from COVID cases and any presumed potential or projected deaths, you will find looming crisis building up. The signs are everywhere.

Another doomsayers, haven't you guys said that China can't contain covid in Wuhan. Aren't you guys say that China can't beat Alpha? Aren't you guys say China can't contain Delta? Maybe China would eventually lose the fight but at least China has done what it can to contain the virus and bring a relative good and safe two years of covid free or very little cases.

 

[Rettam Stacf]

coal output increased 14.8 percent year-on-year to 396 million tons last month

coal imports stood at 16.42 million tons in March, plunging 39.9 percent year-on-year

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EU is banning coal import from Russia. If Russia can reallocate some of those coal to China, it will be beneficial to both countries.

Russia export about 69M tons of coal annually to EU. 70% of which are thermal coal (for power plants) and the remainder (approximately 20M ton) are metallurgical or coking coal (for steel production).

China imports about 55M ton of coal from Australia, mostly metallurgical coal. Reallocating to China the amount of Russia export to EU will cut down Australia's coal export to China by more than 1/3. Putin's revenge is the feather on the cap.

References (where I got the numbers from) :

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[SanWenYu]

EU is banning coal import from Russia. If Russia can reallocate some of those coal to China, it will be beneficial to both countries.

Russia export about 69M tons of coal annually to EU. 70% of which are thermal coal (for power plants) and the remainder (approximately 20M ton) are metallurgical or coking coal (for steel production).

China imports about 55M ton of coal from Australia, mostly metallurgical coal. Reallocating to China the amount of Russia export to EU will cut down Australia's coal export to China by more than 1/3. Putin's revenge is the feather on the cap.

References (where I got the numbers from) :

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Indeed. China's northeast would be a perfect market for the Russian coal. They need to import tens of millions tonnes of coal from south every year. They even import coal from Indonesia because shipment by sea is cheap.

 

[B.I.B.]

Does anyone know if China is actively reducing its US bond holdings, and how much would China loose if the US was to sanction China's Central Bank?

 

[Overbom]