Chinese Economics Thread

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
Before the South Korean government made a concerted effort to encourage K -Pop in the 90s, it realized Jurassic Park the movie made more money than all the cars Hyundai sold that year.

The Beatles, Disney World, McDonald’s (for better or worse), etc..influenced entire generations of people. None of these have anything to do with Us strength in military or tech.

People that lack soft power down plays it’s importance. Both soft and hard power are important.

American soft power is kind of fake.

All American soft power tries to do is to enforce white supremacy.

China will not go for that.

If other people want to vassal themselves via soft power to American wishes like the Europeans just did, then American soft power is really their problem.

China should want to have nothing to do with that.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Before the South Korean government made a concerted effort to encourage K -Pop in the 90s, it realized Jurassic Park the movie made more money than all the cars Hyundai sold that year.

The Beatles, Disney World, McDonald’s (for better or worse), etc..influenced entire generations of people. None of these have anything to do with Us strength in military or tech.

People that lack soft power down plays it’s importance. Both soft and hard power are important.
Beatles are British. Didn't save the British Empire.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
No, both is important. Countless examples where China's growth and development was setback or impeded because their lack of soft power in certain areas that let the US sell a convincing China = bad narrative. Lets see here:

BRI projects put on hold or scaled back due to China not being able to counter the "debt trap" narrative.​
Huawei and ZTE"s international expansion plans and growth in new markets made harder due to "spying" claims that China couldn't effectively counter.​
Strikes and riots in Chinese owned mines in Africa due to false narratives that Chinese owners are exploiting and abusing workers.​
Uyghur genocide and slave labor accusations leading to various Xinjiang industries being set back due to product bans impacting global sales of Chinese and international companies using Xinjiang cotton.​

Softpower is efficient and effective because we're seeing it effectively being used against China in just those above examples alone. Each of those have a material yuan cost against China or Chinese companies.
None of these are soft power at all because soft power does not exist. They are an extension of American hard power. None of these would be possible if the US did not dominate over the narratives of the countries that follow it and none of them would follow the US were it not for its hard power. Basically, the US got them together and said to them that they need to work together under American leadership, accept sacrifices and feed lies to their people because desperate times call for desperate measures and if they let the US fall, Anglo power will recede and Chinese power will dominate and that will be bad for all of these countries. There is only hard power and non-violent extensions of hard power. There is no such thing as soft power because without hard power, there is no power, only begging and acting cute. The core of the concept of power is to achieve one's goals through conflict. There is no example of a country that can prevail through conflict with only soft "power" and those who think that is has happened are only confusing non-violent extenstions of hard power (such as bribes and threats) with soft "power."

Before the South Korean government made a concerted effort to encourage K -Pop in the 90s, it realized Jurassic Park the movie made more money than all the cars Hyundai sold that year.

The Beatles, Disney World, McDonald’s (for better or worse), etc..influenced entire generations of people. None of these have anything to do with Us strength in military or tech.
This is called entertainment for making money. Nobody is saying that China shouldn't have a strong entertainment industry but your entertainment industry has absolutely no power to help you when your country's goals conflict with a rivals. Nobody will throw anything of substance to you at thier own detriment because you entertain them and that is the point of power. Cooperation is easy when the goals align but power is needed when goals clash to ensure that you get your way no matter what. And when something doesn't help you during situations of conflicted interest, it is no power at all.
People that lack soft power down plays it’s importance. Both soft and hard power are important.
People that (sic) lack understanding of the concept of soft power (which is fraught in itself) see "soft power" everywhere grasping at straws. They continue to claim its importance because they are confused and think that making foods (which no country in the world can hold a flame to China as it is) and entertainment is soft power... they are indeed important because if you don't make them then your country will spend massive amounts of money importing them, but it is not soft or any kind of power except perhaps financial power when the profits roll in.

That I do not buy.

My guess is that what is going to happen to the USD is the same thing that happened to the British Pound. It slides into a lesser status depreciating along the way.

Maybe 50 years ago, the Pound was worth 5x times it is today. Forget. Imagine the dollar being a quarter of its value 20-30 years from now. That is very realistic, with the money printing.


The inflation picture is very interesting too.

It is the EV, where the government mandates the end to the internal combustion engine. There is not enough of those minerals required for this industrial transformation. That means built in inflation.

Going forward, seems like the dollar will buy less and less.


The dollar is going up today because the United States was successful in taking the opportunity of the Russia Ukraine war to turn most of Europe into obedient vassal states. The dollar has increased in value to most European currencies, but the dollar does not gain ground on the RMB, that is the other way around for that.

If China did not suppress the RMB value, the Chinese currency would go up a lot. They want to maintain exports, so the value of the RMB remains constant. Eventually they will have to anyways.


Right now, it is a twin threat to the value of the USD, in the long run. Increasing costs due to industrial changes requiring more minerals which the United States do not have, and the rise of China and the RMB.

As far as China is concern, the value of the dollar is not really their concern. They have enough to deal with with governance of the country as it is.
The value of American currency may go up and down; that is not enough to shake its dominance. And the Yuan can gain in usage, but there is a limit. American allies do control most of the world economy and as long as it can twist their arms to accept the dollar as the dominant currency, the dollar cannot fall. Furthermore, there is no currency that is suitable to be the new reserve currency because a reserve currency must be from an import-oriented mega-economy willing to put out massive amounts of it in the world. In short, there is no clear or close victory over the dollar, not yet.
 
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Lethe

Captain
The IMF has just released the April 2022 edition of its World Economic Outlook publication, which extends the horizon of its economic projections to 2027.

In 2027, the IMF projects China's GDP to be $29.13tn against USA projected GDP of $30.97tn. That is to say, the projection is for China's GDP in 2027 to be 94% of USA's GDP, up from 76% in 2021.

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siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
On one hand, China's manufacturing power keeps attracting FDI as expected. On the other hand, is it becoming a new kind of imported inflation driven by the paper money printed in the US/EU/etc.?

Imported inflation is better than nothing. Paper money can still be traded for food/raw material/fuel the last time I’ve checked.
 

weig2000

Captain
The IMF has just released the April 2022 edition of its World Economic Outlook publication, which extends the horizon of its economic projections to 2027.

In 2027, the IMF projects China's GDP to be $29.13tn against USA projected GDP of $30.97tn. That is to say, the projection is for China's GDP in 2027 to be 94% of USA's GDP, up from 76% in 2021.

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Chinese GDP in 2021 is 114.4 trillion rmb, translating into 17.73 trillion USD at the average exchange rate of 6.45 yuan/dollar last year. Or roughly 77% of US GDP in 2021 in nominal term.

Before COVID, it was widely expected that China would surpass the US in nominal GDP around 2028, give or take a few years. It was getting more depressing for many US pundits at the peak of COVID in 2020. But the US economy bounced back strongly in 2021 by printing tons of money, to the point that the mood in the US was much more upbeat, so much so that many believed the US grew faster than China last year (see Joe Biden and US government twitter post). In reality, China grew much faster both in relative term (8.1% vs 5.6%) and absolute term ($3 trillion vs $2.1 trillion) due to rmb appreciation.

Much of the US elites are getting nervous about the GDP competition between the US and China. They're paying so much attention to the numbers like some kind of scorecard. Something never happened before. It's a bit amusing that this symbolic number carries such weight now.

Going forward, there is still quite a bit of uncertainties in the next five years when it comes to this scorecard. The US bounced back strongly and still has some momentum, at the cost of high inflation and longer-term debt increase. A recession is looming too. For China, if it continues with the current slow-motion suicidal zero COVID policy without changes, then it will gradually lose steam and a lot of momentum, causing long-lasting damages. The leadership starts to realize that, but it remains to see what they actually do.

To me, 2027 is still the median year China surpasses the US in nominal GDP, but we will have to continuously watch since it's a very dynamic situation.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Chinese GDP in 2021 is 114.4 trillion rmb, translating into 17.73 trillion USD at the average exchange rate of 6.45 yuan/dollar last year. Or roughly 77% of US GDP in 2021 in nominal term.

Before COVID, it was widely expected that China would surpass the US in nominal GDP around 2028, give or take a few years. It was getting more depressing for many US pundits at the peak of COVID in 2020. But the US economy bounced back strongly in 2021 by printing tons of money, to the point that the mood in the US was much more upbeat, so much so that many believed the US grew faster than China last year (see Joe Biden and US government twitter post). In reality, China grew much faster both in relative term (8.1% vs 5.6%) and absolute term ($3 trillion vs $2.1 trillion) due to rmb appreciation.

Much of the US elites are getting nervous about the GDP competition between the US and China. They're paying so much attention to the numbers like some kind of scorecard. Something never happened before. It's a bit amusing that this symbolic number carries such weight now.

Going forward, there is still quite a bit of uncertainties in the next five years when it comes to this scorecard. The US bounced back strongly and still has some momentum, at the cost of high inflation and longer-term debt increase. A recession is looming too. For China, if it continues with the current slow-motion suicidal zero COVID policy without changes, then it will gradually lose steam and a lot of momentum, causing long-lasting damages. The leadership starts to realize that, but it remains to see what they actually do.

To me, 2027 is still the median year China surpasses the US in nominal GDP, but we will have to continuously watch since it's a very dynamic situation.
Zero COVID is the cornerstone of Chinese services growth. People are demanding it. If government doesn't impose zero COVID expect self quarantine, taking vacation to self lockdown, and for those who can't, riots and mob violence targeting those seen as disease spreaders.

It will be 100x more harmful to drop zero COVID. It isn't a choice between lockdown or free commerce, it is between orderly lockdown with everyone obeying the law or disorderly lockdown due to mass quitting, riots, burning, looting, mob violence, etc.

This has multiple cases of historical precedence including during early COVID where cars with Hubei plates were blocked from Jiangxi by angry mobs.

You have to understand the mentality difference between Chinese and muricans. For all their tough talk muricans have "normalcy bias". They would rather pretend everything was normal and not solve the problem if solving the problem demands long periods or repeated non normalcy. Chinese have "crisis bias" 居安思危。 Chinese just act in a crisis until the problem is solved.

Whether the action is coordinated by the government or uncoordinated mob... Is up to how society responds.
 
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