Chinese Economics Thread

56860

Senior Member
Registered Member
Exports seem to be skyrocketing to all time highs though, and so far we haven't seen any massive depreciation 3 months into the year.
That's mostly because of China's zero COVID. While other nations had massive supply chain issues and had to shut down their ports, China kept theirs running. Now most of the world is treating COVID as endemic, so barring a deadly new variant, we won't see the same thing happen in 2020 and 2021. That is, China's exports will continue growing, but we will not see the crazy amount of growth in past 2 years.
 

OppositeDay

Senior Member
Registered Member
They might depreciate the yuan to preserve exports, it is at a 5 year high right now. Massive win for fragile Anglo egos tbh

No, Li Keqiang's government work report explicitly states the goal is balanced trade. The government is simply brain dead if it still wants to run huge surpluses given what has just happened to Russian central bank's forex reserves.

Chinese standard of living will also be much better if more people work in services rather than producing cheap, low-margin stuff for export.
 

hkbc

Junior Member
You can evaluate officials on a range of metrics, such as anonymous surveys on corruption, air pollution, even fertility rates if you want to go for that. GDP targets are silly. Sometimes you have to do tough reforms which will lower GDP growth rates in the short-term to boost it in the long term. For example, China's bloated housing sector. By putting out elevated GDP targets you're undercutting such efforts and local officials are encouraged to forget longer-term issues in favor of short-term GDP targets.

You evidently have no idea how modern China is governed, so please stop with the pointless conjecture and distortions, what next shall we go back to harping on about the great leap forward, the cultural revolution and how everyone in China is starving and oppressed!

I mean that 40 year 'short term' boost which lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty is just silly, we need to think 'long term' let the peasants grind a couple of centuries more, because my dogma says so, or is it just more communist propaganda, those cities are just photoshopped and the numbers are fabricated!

You don't have a monopoly on silly ideas!

As a counter example, money politics, in the so called 'greatest democracy on earth', creates 'legalised' corruption so should we not bother with elections? or just ban money? Or is it OK because 'rule of law' says its fine! I mean a hereditary Monarchy would fix the corrupt election problem, right, let's do that.
 

KYli

Brigadier
I thought Bolsanaro hated Huawei? What happened there?
Brazilian parliament, politicians, his allies and even his cronies don't hate Huawei or China. Bolsanaro is just a white supremacist and follow the cue from Trump. However, unlike the US, Brazil or Brazilians are just indifference to the rise of China. China has very little to do with them. Bolsanaro isn't getting much extra votes for being anit-China. So monies prevailed in the end.
 

Tyler

Captain
Registered Member
That's mostly because of China's zero COVID. While other nations had massive supply chain issues and had to shut down their ports, China kept theirs running. Now most of the world is treating COVID as endemic, so barring a deadly new variant, we won't see the same thing happen in 2020 and 2021. That is, China's exports will continue growing, but we will not see the crazy amount of growth in past 2 years.
Chinese exports will continue to surge, as they move towards higher valued products. The rmb will continue to move up, as there are few countries that can compete. The US will have to import more inflation.
 
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