Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
- Start date
Forget about GDP growth for now, put that 5% to the military buildup would be much better idea....
Better take NYT with a gram of salt
antiterror13
Brigadier
well, only ~2%, doesn't matter at all
A bit of details about the economical growth targets:
The main targets for year 2022 are overall lowers than what were archieved in 2021. China is setting a low expectation for the year. This is in line with the tone set by central economic work conference (中央经济工作会议) in December last year.
国内生产总值增长5.5%左右 - "GDP growth at 5.5%, take or give"
[In 2021, GDP growth YOY is 8.1%, and 5.1% over two years.]
城镇新增就业1100万人以上，城镇调查失业率全年控制在5.5%以内 - "add at least 11 millions new jobs, keep unemployment rate under 5.5%"
[In comparison, 12.69 millions new jobs added in 2021. Rate of unemployment if 5.1%. Perhaps the small and medium businesses in service sectors are not expected to recover still due to pandemic. Added by lower expectation on goods export.]
居民消费价格涨幅3%左右 - "CPI increase at about 3%"
[CPI increased by 0.9% in 2021. Buckling up for much higher inflation.]
居民收入增长与经济增长基本同步 - "disposable personal income growth at same pace as GDP growth"
[In 2021, the average DPI growth was 8.1% and 9.1%, with and without factoring CPI. In other words, average Chinese are expected to see less income increase this year. If the pandemic is not over this year, the service sectors are not going to recover. Perhaps the government will have to do more tax cuts for the lower income groups.]
进出口保稳提质，国际收支基本平衡 - "maintain quantity of trade and improve quality of it, expect much less trade surplus"
[In 2021, trade on goods resulted in surplus of 4.37 trillion yuan, service trade in deficit of 211.3 billion yuan. The government is expecting a tough year for trade. I don't think China will increase import of service dramatically in 2022. So the government must be predicting much softer foreign demands on goods made in China.]
粮食产量保持在1.3万亿斤以上 - "food production at least 650 million tonnes"
[Total food production was 682 million tonnes in 2021, a 2% growth over 2020. IIRC it is a historic high. This year, fertilizer and fuel prices are higher. Maybe cattle feed are going to be more expensive, too. It can disincentivize some farmers. Perhaps Li Keqiang has also received unfavorable long term weather forecasting? Should still be enough for food security.]
生态环境质量持续改善，主要污染物排放量继续下降 - "keep improving environment and reducing pollution"
[No details for comparison.]
能耗强度目标在“十四五”规划期内统筹考核，并留有适当弹性，新增可再生能源和原料用能不纳入能源消费总量控制 - "more flexible and lenient control on intensity of energy use, no total consumption cap on renewable energy growth and energy use by raw materials (the translation is probably incorrect)"
[Seems to be relaxing a bit on carbon emission to avoid the power crunch in 2021.]
The main targets for year 2022 are overall lowers than what were archieved in 2021. China is setting a low expectation for the year. This is in line with the tone set by central economic work conference (中央经济工作会议) in December last year.
国内生产总值增长5.5%左右 - "GDP growth at 5.5%, take or give"
[In 2021, GDP growth YOY is 8.1%, and 5.1% over two years.]
城镇新增就业1100万人以上，城镇调查失业率全年控制在5.5%以内 - "add at least 11 millions new jobs, keep unemployment rate under 5.5%"
[In comparison, 12.69 millions new jobs added in 2021. Rate of unemployment if 5.1%. Perhaps the small and medium businesses in service sectors are not expected to recover still due to pandemic. Added by lower expectation on goods export.]
居民消费价格涨幅3%左右 - "CPI increase at about 3%"
[CPI increased by 0.9% in 2021. Buckling up for much higher inflation.]
居民收入增长与经济增长基本同步 - "disposable personal income growth at same pace as GDP growth"
[In 2021, the average DPI growth was 8.1% and 9.1%, with and without factoring CPI. In other words, average Chinese are expected to see less income increase this year. If the pandemic is not over this year, the service sectors are not going to recover. Perhaps the government will have to do more tax cuts for the lower income groups.]
进出口保稳提质，国际收支基本平衡 - "maintain quantity of trade and improve quality of it, expect much less trade surplus"
[In 2021, trade on goods resulted in surplus of 4.37 trillion yuan, service trade in deficit of 211.3 billion yuan. The government is expecting a tough year for trade. I don't think China will increase import of service dramatically in 2022. So the government must be predicting much softer foreign demands on goods made in China.]
粮食产量保持在1.3万亿斤以上 - "food production at least 650 million tonnes"
[Total food production was 682 million tonnes in 2021, a 2% growth over 2020. IIRC it is a historic high. This year, fertilizer and fuel prices are higher. Maybe cattle feed are going to be more expensive, too. It can disincentivize some farmers. Perhaps Li Keqiang has also received unfavorable long term weather forecasting? Should still be enough for food security.]
生态环境质量持续改善，主要污染物排放量继续下降 - "keep improving environment and reducing pollution"
[No details for comparison.]
能耗强度目标在“十四五”规划期内统筹考核，并留有适当弹性，新增可再生能源和原料用能不纳入能源消费总量控制 - "more flexible and lenient control on intensity of energy use, no total consumption cap on renewable energy growth and energy use by raw materials (the translation is probably incorrect)"
[Seems to be relaxing a bit on carbon emission to avoid the power crunch in 2021.]
With HK and MO that is over $20 trillion. Pretty crazy if true. Did you include an estimate on the average exchange rate? If you didn't then your estimate would be even higher.
They might depreciate the yuan to preserve exports, it is at a 5 year high right now. Massive win for fragile Anglo egos tbh
Exports seem to be skyrocketing to all time highs though, and so far we haven't seen any massive depreciation 3 months into the year.