Chinese Economics Thread

[Hadoren]

You depend on your new besty, Russia. Soyfarmers are making good roubles from China trade and Russia is ramping up agri industry support. Man, all of China's problems have Russia as an answer. Oil? Russia. Gas ? Russia. Beef? Russia. Caviar ? Russia. Salmon? Russia. Timber ? Russia. Iron ore and Copper ? Russia of course. List goes on and on.

On Beef:
In 2020, Russia supplied 9.4 thousand tons of beef to foreign markets worth $ 48 million, which is 2.9 times more than in 2019. The leader among buyers of Russian beef is China, whose market access was opened in mid-January. Russia is now the biggest exporter of beef to China, taking over from Australia, Argentina and Brazil, according to the Center for Industry Expertise (CIE) of Russia’s Rosselkhozbank.

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This means Chinese can eat lots of meat. No need to feel sad.

Russia plus Central Asia. According to Wikipedia, Central Asia is bigger than India and has 73 million people.

 

[ChongqingHotPot92]

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I heard my parents taking about this. Here is Guangdong is also doing the 25% cut. Anyone in China have more detailed news and reasons on this?

 

[xiabonan]

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They don't need to be humble. A great "pause" they say? Why not just say a great "collapse"?

 

[horse]

They don't need to be humble. A great "pause" they say? Why not just say a great "collapse"?

The article I did read, I thought it was not bad, but the idea of what comes next, is totally bogus.

China has a very diverse economy to put it mildly.

If one sector goes slow, the CPP has enough levers to pull to push the economy forward again. Such as,

• consumer spending
• capital spending
• technological innovation
• exports, etc ...

The CCP has a lot of policy choices at its disposal in areas of the economy it can target to push forward.

Not to mention the standard ones of fiscal spending and monetary policy.

China is too big for those analysts.

They just saw the RCEP come into effect.

Therefore, to balance out the view, China is collapsing yet again!

 

[mossen]

If you want balanced and thoughtful commentary on the Chinese economy, I recommend Marco Polo (think tank). Their chief economist Houze Song puts out a forecast a few times per year. It remains the best source IMO.

 

[Tyler]

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[Tyler]

The article I did read, I thought it was not bad, but the idea of what comes next, is totally bogus.

China has a very diverse economy to put it mildly.

If one sector goes slow, the CPP has enough levers to pull to push the economy forward again. Such as,

• consumer spending
• capital spending
• technological innovation
• exports, etc ...

The CCP has a lot of policy choices at its disposal in areas of the economy it can target to push forward.

Not to mention the standard ones of fiscal spending and monetary policy.

China is too big for those analysts.

They just saw the RCEP come into effect.

Therefore, to balance out the view, China is collapsing yet again!

Consumer spending is stagnating due to covid-19 lockdown, strict lending and crackdown on Ant financial, gaming and after school tutoring.
Capital spending is also limited due to crackdown on real estate, which is a big part of infrastructure.

Technological innovation, biotech and clean energy are the main investments areas right now.

 

[Tam]

Consumer spending is stagnating due to covid-19 lockdown, strict lending and crackdown on Ant financial, gaming and after school tutoring.
Capital spending is also limited due to crackdown on real estate, which is a big part of infrastructure.

Technological innovation, biotech and clean energy are the main investments areas right now.

They are certainly building semiconductor FABs, lithium ion battery factories, and NEV car plants all over the place.

The best development area should be the poverty alleviation efforts on the rural areas.

 

[manqiangrexue]

Key Quotes

"The crackdown is killing the innovation, creativity and entrepreneurial spirit that made China a tech power in the past decade. It is destroying companies, profits and jobs that used to attract China’s best and brightest."

"In the third quarter of last year, China’s biggest internet company, Tencent, posted its slowest revenue growth since its public listing in 2004. The e-commerce giant Alibaba’s profitability declined by 38% from a year earlier.
Didi, once the most valuable start-up in the country, reported an operating loss of $6.3 billion for the first nine months of 2021. In July, the authorities stopped Didi from signing up new users and ordered app stores to remove its services pending a cybersecurity investigation."

" The crackdowns are having a chilling effect on the job market. Many young Chinese are looking to the public sector for more stable positions, even though they pay less. There will be 10 million college graduates in China in 2022, according to the Education Ministry. About 4.5 million have applied to graduate schools, up by 800,000 from 2021. More than two million people have applied to take civil servant examinations, up by half a million, according to the Chinese state media."

None of those are key quotes, nor is the article worth the few minutes it takes to read. Those are what NY Times would like to spin to the US public to make them feel good about nothing because they know nothing about China. The truth is that Beijing's crackdown makes certain that innovation and tech take a vectored direction that serves the Chinese interest and does not become an unregulated profit grab for monopolies to form at the expense of those goals and fair competition.

 

[MortyandRick]

Consumer spending is stagnating due to covid-19 lockdown, strict lending and crackdown on Ant financial, gaming and after school tutoring.
Capital spending is also limited due to crackdown on real estate, which is a big part of infrastructure.

Technological innovation, biotech and clean energy are the main investments areas right now.

I don’t know know you but isn’t that the right areas to invest for the country? sounds to me like the govt is guiding investments in the right direction. I do agree that poverty alleviation in rural areas are key but they are working on that. Technological innovation, biotech and clean energy are the future and dominance in those areas will ensure the country generates wealth which can then be used to help with poverty alleviation. Why is the west so dominant? it’s because of their technology and military.