Chinese Economics Thread

[Bellum_Romanum]

Dr.Eric Li's recent take on George Soros and the west's pinned obsession with China's recent regulatory changes in Chinese economy. An informative must watch video.

"SO WHAT DOES CHINA WANT?

High quality development that's sustainable, real profit of social benefit not just capital gains. We don't want a financialized economy. We want to build an olive shaped society rather than M shaped society; and we want to become still the manufacturing based super power, not a financialized one."

 

[Hendrik_2000]

Here is further elaboration of how they find oil in bohai bay It took them 4 decades! to do the ground work. The experience gain in prospection oil in Shallow water will be applied to similar basin. The new oil field will start production in 2025 once they built the production platform as I said 3 to 4 years

The discovery well, Kenli 10-2-4, was drilled and completed at a depth of 1,520 meters, and encountered oil pay zones with a total thickness of approximately 27 meters. The well was tested to have an average daily output of 81.55 tons of crude oil. "The successful discovery of the Kenli 10-2 oilfield marked a breakthrough in discovering lithological oilfield with reserve of 100 million tons in the shallow depression zone of the Bohai oilfields.

It demonstrated the broad prospect for the exploration of lithological structures in the Bohai, and has great significance as a guide for exploration in similar basins," said Xu Changgui, who heads the exploration department of CNOOC. The story behind the discovery of lithological oilfield in Laizhou Bay Sag in Bohai Bay was many rounds of exploration over a course of four decades. The engineers also adopted the multiple-hole drilling method to reduce the duration of project by 90 days, helping to save 15 percent of the total input. "For miles around the Kenli 10-2 oilfield, there are multiple oilfields including Kenli 10-1 and Kenli 10-4 that are already in production. So the area is fully equipped for construction.

We expect the new oilfield to begin full production in 2025, which will help to increase 40 million tons of oil production in Bohai's oilfields," said Xu. The achievement marked another milestone in Bohai Bay following the discovery of more than 100 billion cubic meters of natural gas reserves at the Bozhong 19-6 oilfield, over 100 million tons of oil and gas reserves at the Bozhong 13-2 oilfield, as well as more than 100 million tons of crude oil reserve at the Kenli 6-1 oilfield. As China's major offshore oil production site, engineers have discovered nearly 800 million tons of oil and gas reserves at Bohai Bay since 2018.

 

[Sincho]

Energy crisis highlights weaknesses in China's power plans.

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[Dolcevita]

The power shortage in China has many reasons and the emissions targets is the lease of them. Its a combination of a booming economy and drier weather that is hampering hydro-electricity generation and not allowing electricity to be sold at market prices. Its the last one that is the most damaging. Coal prices went up more than 100% from a year earlier and China hasn't allowed the power companies to rais prices. Therefor power companies are rationing production to reduce losses. Whenever you sell something below market prices there will be shortages. Then there is the trade war with Australia which also has help to worsen the situation. Australian coal wouldn't prevent the power shortages but it would have helped.

As long as China doesn't allow electricity prices to reflect market conditions there will be shortages.

If true, China will be using the same market force to resolve the power shortage.

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South China's manufacturing powerhouse Guangdong Province said it will widen the peak-to-valley price difference and hike peak electricity prices by 25 percent for industrial users, as multiple industry associations voiced concerns over a power shortage that threatens to weigh down industrial production in the coming months.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Once China surpasses US GDP nominally, these YouTubers will then start making video as to how China can never surpass US GDP Per Capita and that its still a poor country. The goalposts will keep shifting and the copium will keep on flowing.

China cannot surpass the US gdp per capita unless the dollar loses reserve status or the Chinese population goes down by 50%.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

China cannot surpass the US gdp per capita unless the dollar loses reserve status or the Chinese population goes down by 50%.

I find your lack of faith disturbing.

 

[Totoro]

China cannot surpass the US gdp per capita unless the dollar loses reserve status or the Chinese population goes down by 50%.

Well, the latter is on course to happen anyway in 80 or so years.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

Well, the latter is on course to happen anyway in 80 or so years.

LMAO at the idea of making 80 year predictions about anything.

 

[horse]

China cannot surpass the US gdp per capita unless the dollar loses reserve status or the Chinese population goes down by 50%.

American GDP per capita is about 5 or 6 times greater than China GDP per capita with the current exchange rate.

American GDP per capita is about 3 or 4 times greater than China GDP per capita with PPP.

American GDP per capita realistically is about 4 times greater than China GDP per capita.

In 20 years, China's economy will double, which will also push up the RMB value. If the US Dollar falls 50% relative to the RMB (they got their problems and are printing money), then GDP per capita will be close to par.

 

[sinophilia]

American GDP per capita is about 5 or 6 times greater than China GDP per capita with the current exchange rate.

American GDP per capita is about 3 or 4 times greater than China GDP per capita with PPP.

American GDP per capita realistically is about 4 times greater than China GDP per capita.

In 20 years, China's economy will double, which will also push up the RMB value. If the US Dollar falls 50% relative to the RMB (they got their problems and are printing money), then GDP per capita will be close to par.

If that happens then that would mean even today China at market exchange rates would be 50% larger than America. If 1 USD = 3.25 RMB then China would probably be close to 4x the size of the US in 20-25 years assuming the growth differential stays the same till then.