Chinese Economics Thread

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
I remember when I went to Japan for vacation, convenience store would gave heavy discount in the evening and I ate that mostly. Taste still good and very affordable.
@caudaceus bro, when I buy food in 7/11 convenience store near a hotel in Osaka Namba Area, the store clerk always gave me a coupon free of beverages drinks. I was baffled cause I was the only one given. It turns out that the store clerks are Chinese, one a student from the Mainland while the other is a Taiwanese who lives there for the last 15 years (she thought I'm Taiwanese cause I speak fookienese)...lol
 

KenC

Junior Member
Registered Member
The problem for China is that there are too many stiff domestic competitors that would start the race to the bottom as soon as the production bottleneck is resolved. An extremely cutthroat environment has helped China to remain competitive but at the same time preventing many companies from moving up the value chain. Many Chinese companies miss many good opportunities to make decent money due to the fear of raising price would cost them business clients. In the end, these companies got struck in being the low end factories. Chinese government has always put employment as its top agenda but the thinking has changed so a stronger yuan and exporting inflation are tolerated.
First, this is just atypical of the SCMP. Much ado about nothing really as it depends on who you really ask. On the other end of the spectrum, Indians are complaining that Chinese are raising prices to make lots of money. And some businessmen are always complaining even if they make tons of money, The typical businessman / entrepreneur is not stupid. In order to survive in the business for a long time, they have accumulated lots of business know-how and wisdom along the way.
 
First, this is just atypical of the SCMP. Much ado about nothing really as it depends on who you really ask. On the other end of the spectrum, Indians are complaining that Chinese are raising prices to make lots of money. And some businessmen are always complaining even if they make tons of money, The typical businessman / entrepreneur is not stupid. In order to survive in the business for a long time, they have accumulated lots of business know-how and wisdom along the way.
Most of the contracts have already been signed. So even if Yuan appreciated rapidly, in the short term factories would still need to honor their deals. In the end, Chinese manufacturers would end up with bearing most of the cost of appreciation.

On the contrary, a slow and steady appreciation would give manufacturers the time to adjust. Anticipating a further appreciation would lead to the manufacturers to increase their prices and reject low ball contracts. I would argue 5-10% increase annually for a few years is more beneficiary.

Bottom line really is for the Chinese manufacturer to raise prices to mitigate against currency appreciation and increasing cost of raw material. They do not want to work for free or at a lost and there is nothing wrong with that.

Indians can complain all they want as no one as forcing them to buy. They are free to go beg their QUAD buddy USA for export-sanctioned supplies or they can just simply cover themselves with dung. Their choice.
 

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
First, this is just atypical of the SCMP. Much ado about nothing really as it depends on who you really ask. On the other end of the spectrum, Indians are complaining that Chinese are raising prices to make lots of money. And some businessmen are always complaining even if they make tons of money, The typical businessman / entrepreneur is not stupid. In order to survive in the business for a long time, they have accumulated lots of business know-how and wisdom along the way.

Agree. Too often SCMP has nothing more than celebrity gossip columns type of articles.

Seems to me they do not know anything about the topic they are reporting on, therefore they use these cheap rhetorical tricks to generate some interest in their articles.

It's odd. The SCMP really is a window to that part of the world, China, and those Hong Kong people at SCMP know the least about China.

:oops:
 

voyager1

Captain
Registered Member
Finally
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China’s banking regulator has asked lenders to stop selling investment products linked to commodities futures to mom-and-pop buyers, three people with knowledge of the matter told Reuters, to curb investment losses amid volatile commodity prices.
I said it before, any retail investor should be banned from buying any commodities.
They just speculate and drive up prices for legitimate clients

Next step if the high prices continue to be high is to bank investment/mutual funds from buying commodities (nuclear option)

We dont want high prices because these gamblers are playing with physical goods, factories and high prices which damage the economy
 

Gatekeeper

Brigadier
Registered Member
don't worry about Australia. It is currently swimming on that sweet sweet Chinese cash from iron ore sales

They are actually so rich now that they created a program to give money to businesses who were affected by the Chinese sanctions Lol!!

Australia will always be fine, I dont understand why people think that the country would get poor because they got sanctioned.

Australia and Brazil control the market for high-grade iron ore so they can rest assured that they will always have cash

At least CCP recognizes this problem and attemps is made to drive down iron ore prices

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They used to talk about the Australian economy as a two-speed economy. The areas based on mining went on one speed, while the other areas went on a lower speed. Do not know what it is like now, as that country is far far away. The China market would been good for the lower speed economy, but that is cut off now.

In Canada, we call it the have and have-not provinces. The difference is that USA is Canada most important trading partner.

What happens in Canada, is that the have provinces, give welfare types of payments to the have-not provinces, to try to balance the provincial budgets (which they never do anyways).

How it works in Australia, could be the same, but who knows. What seems certain is an unbalance distribution of income, which creates inequality.

The streets of America tells us that inequality is a real problem in the world today.

Every time I heard them talking about "justice," I git a little nervous ...

:p

Guys. China is not trying to make Australia poor. That is certain to be a failure. The idea is too put pressure on their government to act less hostile to China.

And the only tool in China's procession at the moment is to hurt it's electorate, and therefore feeding back to government fear of loosing at the next election.

You dont need to make the whole country poor for that. You just need to make enough people unemployed, or see their living standards erode to tip the balance.

Morrison is fully aware of that, and it's trying to talk up the economy or blame covid or something, in fact anything but China.

Yes, it's true that China couldn't quickly diversify away from Australia's iron ore. They have started to but not completed with Brazilian and Congo. This is not new, I remember when Australia trying to tied down China with 5-year committiment etc. And china was having none if ut abd had to keep buying on the spot-market at at higher price. This was, from memory over a decade ago under Rudd. So China should've learnt a lesson on this. Still it is hurting Australia's other industries. But these are tiny compares to iron ore.

Finally
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I said it before, any retail investor should be banned from buying any commodities.
They just speculate and drive up prices for legitimate clients

Next step if the high prices continue to be high is to bank investment/mutual funds from buying commodities (nuclear option)

We dont want high prices because these gamblers are playing with physical goods, factories and high prices which damage the economy

I agreed, stock market is no place for retailers. But in the grand scheme of things, retailers are very very small part of the market. This is why it makes me laugh, these retailers are in effort, market followers, not makers. So basically they just put up the funds and HOPE the market goes their way, whereas institutional funds are more akin to market makers. They can affect the price by their actions.

When I used to go to London to talk with institution fund managers. They have saying:

When the retailers get in, (as in putting their money in) we get out. When they get out, we get in. Lol
 

voyager1

Captain
Registered Member
Wow this is wild
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China’s yuan advanced to a three-year high in onshore markets as the central bank signaled that it’s comfortable with a recent rally by setting a strong daily reference rate.
The currency gained as much as 0.3% to 6.3913 per dollar in onshore markets, the highest since June 2018
The Shanghai Securities News reported that the yuan could rally to as high as 6.2, citing Citic Securities Co., the country’s biggest brokerage.
Yuan to the moon!

Btw if China gdp reaches 110 trillion RMB by end of 2021, then if the rate of 6.39 remains (unlikely, Yuan will be strengthened even more!) then that means its gdp in dollars will be 17.2 trillion dollars

With 6.30 : $17.46 trillions

With 6.20 : $17.74 trillions

With 6.10 : $18.03 trillions

With 6.00 : $18.33 trillions


Ofc thats a big appreciation which would be too sudden and would harm the economy.

IMO 6.30 is ok, anything below that would be harmful
 
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