Chinese Economics Thread

Martian

Senior Member
Surprise! ZTE is world's fifth-largest phone manufacturer

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ZTE claims two million sales for the ZTE Blade / San Francisco. (Source:
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"ZTE now 5th largest mobile phone maker
China.org.cn, August 12, 2011

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ZTE has become the fifth largest phone maker in the world, its market share growing from 1.8 percent to 3.0 percent.

Overall sales of mobile devices to end users totalled 428.7 million units in the second quarter this year, up 16.5 percent from the same period in 2010, said Gartner, an industry research firm based in the U.S., in a report released Thursday, Sina.com reported Friday.

According the report, Nokia sold 97.87 million phones, compared to 111.5 million in the second quarter of 2010. Its market share dropped from 30.3 percent to 22.8 percent. Samsung's market share fell from 17.8 percent to 16.3 percent. LG's overall share slid from 8 percent to 5.7 percent. Apple came in fourth, going from 2.4 percent to 4.6 percent. ZTE has become the fifth largest phone maker in the world, its market share growing from 1.8 percent to 3.0 percent.

"We expect manufacturers and distributors to remain cautious about raising their stock levels in the second half of 2011, following the recent uncertainty on the world financial markets," said Gartner analyst Annette Zimmermann.

The industry research company also expects the overall market of mobile devices to grow by 12 percent in 2011."
 
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ABC78

Junior Member
Hey guys here's an interesting conversation on China's rare earths industry and info usually not include in the debate in western media. Like rare earths are not really rare it's just environmentally hazardous and expensive in terms of safety China's willing to pay the price everyone else not so much.

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Equation

Lieutenant General
Hey guys here's an interesting conversation on China's rare earths industry and info usually not include in the debate in western media. Like rare earths are not really rare it's just environmentally hazardous and expensive in terms of safety China's willing to pay the price everyone else not so much.

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This has been widely known in the industry that China is currently mined and produce nearly 97% of the world's rare earth metals. Although it is important to all kinds of high tech stuff, but it's pretty cheap to export compare to oil. I think China wanted to limit the supply to increase the prices for those rare earth metals. It's reasonable considering China has to take in so much pollution for processing it.
 

Red___Sword

Junior Member
In case no one dig the book and noticed the following: China held 30% of the world's total rare earth reserves, ONLY; yet she (have to) supply 97% (acutally is 90% these years) of the world's rare earth market, for the last 20 more years.

Sounds to me China just being exploited.

If my memory serves me right, our good digger Mr. Martian has post some figure (chart and text) showing How richly reserved the rest of the world's big countries (Russian, US, EU...) of rare earth, and how they enjoy that exploit over China, for the last 20 more years, before.

Even this "no body" (in a sense) called OPEC can give the world an "Energy Crysis" as early as 1970s', I don't think China should let that rare earth exploits over her body continues.

I bet ¥100 (that's Yuan, not yen) that the next whole set of industry that China itself is going to "set right", like what happened to China's steel industry, is rare earth industry.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
I'm not even an expert and I saw this was happening forever. If you read the comments section, you can still see some people just can't wrap it around their heads. "If it says 'Made In China' how can American companies make all the profits?"

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August 15, 2011, 4:09 pm
‘Made in China,’ but Still Profiting Americans

By CATHERINE RAMPELL


4:40 p.m. | Updated to correct the name of the organization that released the study.


Over the years I’ve heard many Americans fret about buying goods that are “Made in China,” since they want their cash to go to American companies instead of Chinese ones. A new study, however, finds that a majority of the price consumers pay for goods labeled “Made in China” actually does go to American businesses, not Chinese ones.

The study, from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Fransisco, estimates that of every dollar consumers spend on a product labeled “Made in China,” about 45 cents goes to China for the cost of the original import.

On the other hand, about 55 cents of that dollar pays for services produced in the United States, such as the transportation for the product, rent for the store where the product is sold, the salaries of the salespeople at the store, the cost of marketing the product, the profits for shareholders of the retailer selling the product and so on.

What’s more, the fraction of a retail product’s price going to American services is higher for Chinese-made products than for products made in other foreign countries. For retail prices on overall imported goods, only 36 percent — or 36 cents on the dollar, instead of 55 cents on the dollar for made-in-China goods only — goes to American companies and their workers.

That difference is largely caused by the types of products American import from China versus other countries.

“The fact that the U.S. content of Chinese goods is much higher than for imports as a whole is mainly due to higher retail and wholesale margins on consumer electronics and clothing than on most other goods and services,” write Galina Hale and Bart Hobijn, the authors of the study.

Bear in mind that there are other ways that American consumer spending gets channeled to China, among other countries. That is, many American-made products or services use imported goods as inputs. These types of imports, which are used as parts and not sold directly to consumers, are called “intermediate goods,” as opposed to “final goods.”

Given this, the San Francisco Fed’s study also looked into what share of total personal consumption expenditures in the United States goes to imported final goods (again, consumer products) and intermediate goods (parts).


The authors found that about 13.9 percent of all United States consumer spending goes to imports, including both final and intermediate goods. Chinese imports alone — including both final goods and intermediate goods from China — accounts for just 1.9 percent of total consumer spending.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This post has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: August 15, 2011

An earlier version of this post incorrectly identified the Federal Reserve Bank that issued the paper. It was the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, not the New York Fed.


Copyright 2011 The New York Times Company
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NYTimes.com 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018
 

bladerunner

Banned Idiot
Deng Xiaoping, declared rare earths to be the oil of China, and encouraged the development of mines in the mid-1980s. Subsequently prices fell and many mines in America/or internationally became uneconomic due to China's lower costs and enviromental standards.

Meanwhile Australia is making moves to get into the rare earths business

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Martian

Senior Member
Chery to open Kenyan plant

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Chinese automotive workers check Chery QQ6 model cars as they come off the assembly line at their factory in Wuhu, Anhui Province in 2007.

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"Chery to open Kenyan plant
Updated: 2011-08-12 09:11
By Beatrice Gachenge (China Daily)

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Chery Automobile Co Ltd's booth at an auto show in Beijing. The company aims to sell 120,000 vehicles overseas this year, which would be an increase of more than 30 percent. [Photo / China Daily]

Automaker tries to secure $50m to fund its new East African facility

NAIROBI, Kenya - Chery Automobile Co Ltd is to become the second Chinese vehicle maker to build an assembly plant in Kenya. The move will see Chery Automobile join the truck manufacturer Beiqi Foton Motors Co Ltd as the companies attempt to tap East African demand and will further strengthen Chinese links with the continent.

"They (Chery) are discussing with the (Chinese) government so that they can get some $50 million to invest in Kenya through an assembly plant," said Justus Nguu, the director of Stantech Motors Ltd, Chery Automobile's franchise holder in Kenya.

China has made big inroads in Africa, where it is seeking to secure energy, minerals and food.

Chery Automobile, which started selling cars overseas in 2002, and is now China's biggest auto exporter, aims to set up its plant next year. In 2010, the company tested the market by venturing into Kenya through a franchise.

The automaker sold a modest 120 cars last year, but aims to produce 1,000 units in 2013 at its plant which will serve Kenya, East Africa's biggest economy, and other countries in the region.

Chery Automobile, China's largest indigenous automaker, aims to increase exports by more than 30 percent this year to 120,000 vehicles. The firm is targeting developing nations in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, South America and Africa.

Chery operates 16 assembly plants overseas.


The Chinese will have to battle Japanese vehicles, which have saturated the Kenyan car market.

Toyota Motor Corp controls about 65 percent of the market, mainly through the second-hand segment.

The truck business is dominated by established players CMC Holdings Ltd and the Kenyan unit of General Motors Co.

General Motors East Africa Ltd, Associated Vehicle Assemblers Ltd and Kenya Vehicle Manufacturers Ltd are the established players in Kenya's motor vehicle assembly sector.

Analysts said proximity to growing markets was the key driver for the companies planning to set up in Kenya.

"(The delay in) lead time for orders ... has made it strategically important for auto manufacturers targeting Africa to want a serious presence in Africa," said Hanningtone Gaya, an independent regional vehicle analyst based in Nairobi.

China's truck maker, Shanghai-listed Beiqi Foton Motors, a unit of Beijing Automotive Industry Holdings Co (BAIC), plans to begin construction of an assembly plant in Kenya this year, to help it nudge up sales on the continent.

The company plans to double sales in Africa to 20,000 units by 2013 from last year by ramping up sales to economies that require heavy commercial vehicles for use in the construction of their infrastructure projects, including roads, rails and ports.


"When you look at the international markets, we are still young. Africa is a good market for us," Calvin Guo managing director of the Kenyan subsidiary of Beiqi Foton Motors.

Reuters"

[Note: Thank you to Grey Boy 2 for the post.]
 

bladerunner

Banned Idiot
Chinese Protest $5B Losses Tied to Reverse Mergers

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Four wrinkled pieces of paper are all that remain of Xiong Renzhi’s Nasdaq-fueled dream of a comfortable retirement in the southern Chinese city of Nanchang.

The certificates gripped in the former electrician’s sinewy hands represent 46,000 shares of Xi’an Xilan Natural Gas Co., which he bought in 2006 for 166,000 yuan ($25,990) by selling his apartment and moving in with his sick mother-in-law. Xiong, 62, said he expected returns many times his outlay when the natural-gas distributor listed on New York’s Nasdaq Stock Market, which it did on June 5, 2009.

Like thousands of Chinese who bet their life savings on companies aiming for U.S. listings -- some of them among firms that later cost U.S. investors billions of dollars -- Xiong and his wife are still waiting for a payout.

“We put all our eggs in this one basket,” said Xiong, who writes articles online to support protests in the financial capital of Shanghai by others who claim they’ve been cheated. “Is the company going to exploit us for nothing?”

Xiong and as many as half a million Chinese who spent an estimated 35 billion yuan ($5.48 billion) on similar investments want authorities to ensure they get their money back. They bought into companies touted by local officials, investors said, only to have their share purchases later deemed illegal by the central government.
Public Protests

Hundreds have vented their anger in four protests since May led by a wheelchair-bound retiree, Lu Yafang. One desperate man last year publicly attempted suicide. All are victims of a failed Chinese experiment with capital markets, said Xiong.

Xiong’s experience shows how little oversight there is in the burgeoning Chinese securities market. Local and foreign investors have been burned by companies that skirted regulations on fundraising while cloaking themselves in government authority. Now that investors have lost money, they’re finding the government is offering them little protection.

“The Chinese government hasn’t bothered to create real financial markets, where you have the infrastructure that rewards good behavior and punishes bad behavior,” said Arthur Kroeber, managing director of Beijing-based GaveKal Dragonomics Research, a financial advisory firm. “In a country where legal institutions are weak, there are lots of opportunities for retail investors to get ripped off.”
Reverse Mergers

At least 16 firms based in Xi’an, the capital of Shaanxi province in China’s northwest, joined more than 400 Chinese businesses that gained stock-market listings in North America by buying public shell companies -- a strategy known as a reverse merger that avoids the scrutiny of an initial public offering.

Investors in U.S.-listed Chinese companies, including former American International Group Chief Executive Officer Maurice “Hank” Greenberg’s C.V. Starr & Co., have lost more than $7 billion this year in plummeting share values as at least two dozen firms revealed accounting flaws or auditor resignations. U.S. securities regulators are investigating.

For many firms that couldn’t meet requirements to list on China’s two domestic exchanges, selling shares to Chinese investors on provincial platforms enabled them to raise funds needed to venture to overseas markets, said Wang Weimin, a former exchange official who helped promote trading in Shaanxi.

Most of Xilan Natural Gas’s 200 to 300 domestic investors have sold their certificates back to the company for 1 yuan a share, according to Xiao Peng, a Xilan executive who handles the issue. That’s about one-fourth what most of them paid. The company hasn’t made a conversion into U.S. shares because of a dispute with an adviser on its public listing, he said.
Capitalist Foray

Xilan raised more than $75 million from U.S. stock sales and attracted buyers including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The U.S. shares, which trade under the name China Natural Gas Inc. (CHNG), rose to as high as $28.80 in 2007 before the financial crisis. Last year the firm had to revise more than a year of U.S. financial statements related to the disclosure and impact of a bank loan. The shares closed yesterday at $2.44.

A decade ago, Xi’an, an ancient capital of China and the eastern end of the Silk Road trading route, began a foray into capitalism led by local officials seeking to build a high-tech economy. City and provincial governments approved, and in some cases established and funded, five markets to help private companies sell shares, investors said.

Shaanxi officials attended promotional tours in Shanghai. Agents sought investors nationwide through television ads. Some hawked the investments from desks at Xi’an’s representative office in Shanghai, according to accounts by investors, leaving the impression that the shares had official endorsement.
‘Ready to Die’

No fewer than 60 Shaanxi firms sold shares to Chinese investors, according to protest organizer Lu’s count. The inflow of money supported the development of a high-tech district in Xi’an that boasts a five-star Shangri-La hotel, high-rise apartment buildings and a shopping center where Mont Blanc pens and Coach bags are for sale.

About 1,200 kilometers (746 miles) to the southeast, in Shanghai, Lu is trying to get compensation for investors in firms that didn’t keep their promises. A former factory worker, Lu, 55, became an organizer for more than 1,000 investors as she fought for the 100,000 yuan she put into a Shaanxi drugmaker, including money her sister had given her for emergencies.

At a June demonstration in Shanghai, scores of protesters gathered outside a government compound, some holding signs with the single Chinese character for injustice. Lu sat under an umbrella in a drizzle, handing out leaflets that read: “Made our money with toil and ready to die to get it back.”

Two men unfurled a banner before plainclothes police moved in to grab it, sparking a skirmish. Lu responded by playing a pre-recorded speech through a loudspeaker.
Electric Wheelchair

Crippled by a childhood bout of polio, Lu started investing after receiving compensation for being evicted from her home and an early retirement payout from her employer, a state-owned manufacturer of air conditioning systems.

She said she bought shares of Chongyang Biotechnology Co., a Xi’an-based developer of liver drugs, from a stock-promotion company in September 2005 that dangled the prospect of an overseas listing. An agent urged her not to tell her family until she could wow them with her gains, she said. In anticipation, she spent 3,000 yuan on an electric wheelchair.

At the time, Lu said, she had no idea Chongyang Biotechnology’s CEO and his son had been arrested two months earlier for illegal fundraising. The men were sentenced to at least two years, and the manager of the stock-promotion company got 13 years, according to copies of court files provided by victims. Lu said she hasn’t received any compensation.
‘Organized Scheme’

“We weren’t cheated by an individual, it was an organized scheme,” said Lu, who has twice been to Beijing to petition authorities. “If 95 percent of the companies promoted by Shaanxi are bad, isn’t that the government’s responsibility?”

Securities regulators in Beijing, Shaanxi and Shanghai declined to comment or didn’t respond to telephone calls and faxed questions. An official at Shaanxi’s financial office declined to comment when reached by phone.

A committee composed of former Shaanxi officials published a report in 2007 saying that 230,000 investors had bought shares in 160 companies in sales later deemed illegal. The report called the share sales to retirees “fraudulent” and “a huge social risk.”
Pushing Exchanges

“Every city government wants to become a financial center, so you have the continued pushing up of these exchanges,” said Stephen Green, head of Greater China research for Standard Chartered Plc in Hong Kong. “The regulator comes in because they’re often badly managed and people lose money. Then there are social protests.”

Beijing securities lawyer Yang Zhaoquan estimated the number of victims at about 500,000, most of them from low-income groups. Only a small percentage is likely to get compensation for lost investments of as much as 35 billion yuan, Yang said on a webcast last year organized by Securities Times, a government- owned newspaper. He declined to comment for this article.

Xiong and his wife, the Xilan Natural Gas investors, met Lu online after they began communicating with others trying to recoup money invested in Shaanxi company shares. The wife, who asked not to be named for fear of reprisals, gets on the Internet nightly, sometimes posting Xiong’s articles under the name Two Trees.

“I wanted to let off some steam and demand justice be done,” said Xiong, a thin man with a hoarse voice.
Cartoon Pandas

Xiong said he first heard about Xilan after his wife responded to a television ad offering free investment consulting. They had bought stocks listed on China’s main bourses in Shanghai and Shenzhen and were disappointed by the returns, according to Xiong. She said agents convinced her to consider buying so-called internal shares issued by companies that hadn’t yet listed on Chinese exchanges and suggested Xilan.

Xilan had big plans for profiting from China’s skyrocketing energy needs. By December 2005, it supplied gas to about 50,000 homes in the Xi’an area, sold compressed natural gas to fueling stations for use by taxis and buses and expected to open three of its own stations, according to U.S. filings. That month, the company went public in the U.S. in a reverse merger with Coventure International Inc., a financially strapped consulting firm, gaining a listing on the over-the-counter market as China Natural Gas.

China Natural Gas’s website features two cartoon pandas dancing in American flag vests and unfurling a banner that reads “Innovation of Energy Industry.”
20-Hour Trip

Xiong and his wife took an almost 20-hour train trip from Nanchang to Xi’an in January 2006 to check out the company. In freezing weather, Xiong talked to taxi drivers whose vehicles ran on natural gas and who told him of queues at fuel stations.

“I saw good prospects in that industry,” Xiong said.

After buying shares in the company from a freelance agent, the couple went to Xilan’s office. There a woman handling the domestic share program told them that their certificates, stamped with the firm’s official seal, were authentic and could be converted into tradable shares in the U.S. once the company moved to Nasdaq, according to Xiong.

Seats were sold out for the return trip home, and Xiong stood between compartments next to the bathroom. Still, he was feeling happy, he said.

“Finally we seized an opportunity,” Xiong said. “The train was crowded and noisy, but I was relieved.”
‘Primary School’

Xiong said he and his wife were reassured their investment would pay off because Xilan had already listed on the over-the- counter market in the U.S. and its shares were gaining. The month the couple visited Xi’an, China Natural Gas raised more than $10 million in private placements to large investors, including Amaranth Advisors LLC before the hedge fund’s collapse, and its stock jumped 55 percent.

In China, Xilan’s domestic shares were listed on the Xi’an Technology Property Trading Center, one of the province’s five exchanges, according to Xiong and two other Xilan investors.

Such platforms were “like a primary school for capital markets,” according to Wang Weimin, former deputy manager of another exchange, the Shaanxi Technology Property Exchange.

That exchange was founded by the Shaanxi Science and Technology Department in 2001, according to Sun Haiying, who headed the department at the time. Then-governor Cheng Andong approved the platform and authorized 7 million yuan in support, he said. Cheng could not be reached for comment.

Telephone calls to the Shaanxi province information office weren’t returned. Li Yingjun, manager of the Xi’an Technology Property Trading Center, said the share selling had stopped. He declined to comment further.
Shaanxi Exchange

The Shaanxi Technology Property Exchange posted company share prices on an electronic screen near a Buddhist pagoda in central Xi’an and on the exchange’s website. Shares typically were set at about 4 yuan and sold in blocks of 1,000, known as TPs for technology properties, according to Wang. The term was an improvisation to circumvent restrictions on selling securities outside China’s two formal exchanges, he said. Rather than sell shares, the exchange trained brokers to do so.

In August 2003, Shaanxi officials accompanied local executives to Shanghai to meet potential investors from China’s wealthier east coast, Wang said. Among them was Ji Qin’an, who later became chairman and chief executive officer of Xilan. The company wouldn’t make Ji, who owns about 14 percent of China Natural Gas’s shares through direct and indirect stakes, available for comment.
‘Absorbing Money’

“This was a means to an end that some local governments tolerated and supported to grow local economies, absorbing money from more developed areas,” said Song Yixin, a lawyer with Shanghai New Hope Law Firm who represents people claiming they lost money investing in such domestic shares.

The companies promoted on the platforms initially targeted listings on a planned enterprise market in Shenzhen intended to cater to firms that didn’t meet the requirements of China’s main stock exchanges. When the new market was delayed -- it didn’t open until 2009 -- executives turned their attention to the U.S.

Shaanxi officials announced in 2007 that the province would reward companies that raised money on domestic or overseas markets. A firm with an initial listing that brought in as much as 100 million yuan would be eligible for an award of 200,000 yuan, according to a policy issued in June 2007.

Cases like that of Chongyang Biotechnology, the company that protest leader Lu invested in, led to regulatory scrutiny by the central government. In December 2006, China’s State Council, the nation’s cabinet, declared it illegal for companies not listed in China to sell shares to the general public or to more than 200 people.
Crackdown on Fraud

At least four executives and dozens of sales agents were jailed for fraud in a crackdown after firms collapsed or didn’t pay investors back, according to documents from securities regulators reviewed by Bloomberg News.

Xilan and other Nasdaq-listed companies based in Xi’an have suffered few repercussions. Among those accused by domestic investors of reneging on promises include SkyPeople Fruit Juice Inc. (SPU), Sino Clean Energy Inc. (SCEI) and Skystar Bio-Pharmaceutical Co. All listed in reverse mergers and continue to trade.

Sino Clean, a maker of coal-slurry fuel, said it is freeing domestic shareholders from restrictions on trading. SkyPeople, a beverage company, and Skystar, a veterinary drugmaker, didn’t respond to telephone calls and e-mails seeking comment.

Wayne Lee, a spokesman for Nasdaq OMX Group Inc., declined to comment.
‘Law Was Incomplete’

Sun, the former Shaanxi official, said investors and most of the companies were innocent and that the fundamental issue was a lack of a market like the OTC, where the fundraising demands by small private companies could be regulated.

“The law was incomplete, and there was no way to control the middlemen,” said Sun, whose wife lost money on similar investments. “Had the exchange evolved into an OTC market, there would have been no problem today.”

Xiong and his wife first became alarmed in 2007 after Xilan’s website took down a speech by Chairman Ji promising a share conversion, Xiong said. In June 2009, when Xilan celebrated its Nasdaq listing, nobody contacted him. When he called, the company told him he would have to wait to get the U.S. shares, according to Xiong.

Two years and many phone calls later, the company has offered Xiong only 46,000 yuan, 1 yuan for each share, less than one-third of his investment, he said.
Ownership Dispute

Xiao Peng, the Xilan executive, said the company hasn’t allowed a conversion because of an ownership dispute with Benjamin Wey, who advised the firm on its U.S. listing.

Wey, president of corporate advisory firm New York Global Group, said in an e-mail that he hasn’t communicated with China Natural Gas for at least 5 years and has “never been aware of any dispute” with the company.

“The share transfer was done in an ill-formed way in a non-standard market,” Xiao said in a telephone interview.

Xiong said the government should help victims recover the full amount they paid since Xilan’s share sale was illegal. A court in Shanghai ruled last year that one company, Shanghai Perfection Nanometre New Material Co., is responsible along with sales agents for compensating shareholders.

“The issue is like a container that will sooner or later explode,” Xiong said, hitting his palm with a plastic water bottle during an interview in Nanchang in June.
Rat Poison

It already did for 70-year-old Luo Yisheng, a retired grocery store worker who plays the flute. Luo said he walked into the courtyard of a Shanghai government office in March 2010 and emptied five packets of powdered rat poison into his mouth. In his pocket was a suicide note in which he asked for compensation for soured investments in two Xi’an-based companies he had been told would earn him a small fortune on Nasdaq.

“I haven’t got a penny back,” Luo wrote, asking to be cremated with his flutes. “It’s all fake. They’re all scams. How can I face my wife and son? I can do nothing but say goodbye to this world.”

Luo survived after security guards rushed him to a nearby hospital, where his stomach was pumped, he said.

“I can die at home, but nobody would know how suffocated I was,” he said in an interview at his apartment in a suburb of Shanghai in July, his face turning red as he patted the certificates he bought. “Those companies and agents pushed me to suicide.”
Buyback Offer

As for Xilan, its U.S. foray may soon be over. Shares of China Natural Gas have fallen 59 percent in the year since it announced the restatement. Roth Capital Partners and Rodman & Renshaw LLC have suspended coverage. A class-action suit accusing the firm of misleading investors by withholding information is proceeding in federal court in Delaware.

Evidence of Xilan’s dispute with domestic shareholders and a high turnover of chief financial officers pushed Polaris Capital Management LLC, a $4.2 billion investment manager, to sell all of its shares in China Natural Gas this year, according to Bin Xiao, an analyst at Boston-based Polaris.

“Our big concern was on the corporate-governance issues,” said Xiao, who visited the company in April 2010.

On June 30, Ji, Xilan’s chairman, announced a plan to buy out China Natural Gas shareholders for $4.25 a share in a take- private deal backed by Themes Investment Partners, a China- focused private-equity fund. Robert Moses Jr., a Houston-based investor with long experience in the energy business who owns about 3.5 percent of the company’s shares, said at that price he’ll break even or make “a little” on his investment.

Xiong isn’t likely to be so lucky. He and his wife moved into an unfurnished home in a Nanchang suburb last month after her mother died and her brother bought out her share of the apartment. Xiong has put his electrical expertise to work wiring his new abode.

“Ji will have his ‘Escape to Victory’ with money in hand,” said Xiong’s wife, referring to a 1981 Sylvester Stallone movie that was popular in China. “It’s not fair. How could the U.S. too let him get away with this?”

--Wenxin Fan, Dune Lawrence. With assistance from Stephanie Wong in Shanghai and Nikolaj Gammeltoft in New York. Editors: Neil Western, Robert Friedman.

To contact Bloomberg News staff responsible for this story: Fan Wenxin in Shanghai at +86-21-6104-3045 or [email protected]; Dune Lawrence in New York at +1-212-617-4510 or [email protected].

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Melissa Pozsgay at [email protected]; Gary Putka at [email protected].
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
So first there was this article:

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Jeremy Warner

China's economic miracle may be about to come off the rails
Largely invisible to a radar screen dominated by concerns over the US and eurozone debt crises, the Chinese economic miracle, one of the few apparent bright spots that remains in a world beset by trouble, has in recent weeks also been showing unnerving signs of strain. Indeed, it may even be about to come off the rails entirely – quite literally.

Last weekend, one of China's new bullet trains, a showcase of the country's growing economic prowess, rammed into the back of another, killing 39 passengers and injuring nearly 200 more.

The accident has raised questions, not just about the safety of China's vaunting ambition in high-speed rail, but about the sustainability of the country's break-neck pace of economic development in the round.

As Shen Minggao, chief China economist at Citi, has observed: "High-speed rail in some sense represents China's fast growth. When you care so much about speed, you sometimes pay less attention to the quality of the growth."

China's political leadership has long dreamt of an entirely new rail network, from the prosperous eastern seaboard to remotest inland China, and over the past four years they've set about building it with a determination which no other country would seem remotely capable of.

But in so doing, they appear to have put speed before safety, and economic ambition before commercial viability. It is not just the quality of the bastardised foreign designs, copied and botched together to feed China's insatiable appetite for growth, which is now being questioned.

The funding of this grand ambition is beginning to look increasingly shaky too. Financially, the project has already effectively broken the Ministry of Railways. At the last count, the ministry was nearly 2 trillion yuan (£200bn) in debt and clocking up losses at the rate of about £400m a quarter. On any Western definition, the ministry is completely bust. To meet the plan, another 2.8 trillion yuan has to be found in the next three and half years. Where's the money going to come from?

In recent debt issues, the railway has had to pay way above the going rate of interest, despite the fact that its bonds are implicitly and in some cases explicitly underwritten by the state. Of equal concern is that the newly opened links have failed to achieve anywhere near expected traffic levels. In the West, they would be dubbed a massive white elephant.

Concern over the new network's safety has created an even bigger hill to climb in terms of driving the necessary demand. Many of the trains are as empty as the ghost towns that sprout randomly upon China's vast open plains. For many Chinese, both are too expensive to contemplate.

The Chinese approach to development is to build the infrastructure in the expectation that the demand and economic activity will naturally follow in its wake. Yet in its impatience for economic advancement, China has ignored the dangers and cut corners. Last weekend's rail crash can be seen as a harbinger of wider economic catastrophe to come.

As everyone knows, progress never proceeds in a straight line, yet when it comes to China, many have managed to deceive themselves that it can and will. No one is more guilty of this delusion than the Chinese themselves. The swagger and arrogance of Chinese officialdom has all the hallmarks of pride before the fall.

Nowhere is the unsustainability of Chinese growth more apparent than in its spectacular real estate bubble. Prices have been growing like topsy, despite a growing overhang of vacant new development. Conscious of the dangers, the Chinese authorities have taken a number of steps to cool the overheated housing market. Early evidence is that it seems to be working. Prices have risen by "only" 7pc over the last year and transaction volumes are lower.

Unfortunately, it is not as simple as that. China is on a treadmill of unsustainable development which it knows not how to get off without damaging growth and thereby provoking political and social instability. Residential and commercial property development in China is such a big component of overall growth that anything that damages the property market threatens to upset the entire apple cart.

According to the most recent International Monetary Fund staff report on China, the property market directly makes up some 12pc of the country's GDP. Indirectly, it is a lot more, as the property market is highly connected to the output of basic industries such as steel and cement, as well as downstream industries such domestic appliances and other consumer durables.

The banking sector is also highly exposed, having financed much of the recent development. Direct lending to real estate (developers and residential mortgages), accounts for nearly 20pc of all bank lending in China.

For a long time now, the Chinese leadership has been conscious of the economy's dangerously high reliance on investment and net trade to fuel growth. Economic and financial calamities in the West have convinced policy-makers of the need to move more swiftly than they would have liked to address these imbalances.

Yet despite the rhetoric, the country has failed appreciably to wean itself off the dependence. Domestic consumption still accounts for a woefully small proportion of the economy. In the round, public policy still overwhelmingly prioritises investment and exports over higher disposable incomes.

The longer China takes to make the switch, the more likely it is that China's present phase of investment-led growth will end badly. In high-speed rail along with much else, China is trying to run before she has properly learned to walk. Rampant corruption, cronyism and poor governance only add to concern over the sustainability of the present economic and social model.

So when China lectures the US on its absence of economic leadership and the suicidal tendencies the world's richest nation is displaying in putting political infighting before the interests of financial stability, it perhaps ought to look to the mote in its own eye. The imbalances China has deliberately created in its pursuit of economic advancement are a large part of the overall mischief that has taken place in the world economy this past decade.

By supporting its trade surplus through massive purchases of US Treasuries, China, one of the poorest countries in the world, has in effect been lending the US, the richest, the money with which to buy its goods. How stupid is that? Debasement of the vast dollar assets China has accumulated in the process is the least it can expect by way of payback for a flawed economic model.

And then amazingly the chinese embassy in the UK responded with this:

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The Chinese Embassy Refutes The Daily Telegraph's Article on the Chinese Economy"Coming off the Rails"


2011/08/08

On 29 July, The Daily Telegraph carried an article, asserting the 23 July rail crash in Wenzhou was a prelude to the derailment of China’s economic miracle. The Embassy spokesman wrote a letter to the newspaper to refute its comment. On 6 August, The Daily Telegraph published the main content of the letter and it was posted in full on the newspaper’s online edition. The entire letter is as follows:

“Sir:

I am writing in reference to China’s high-speed route to disaster by Mr Jeremy Warner, which was carried on the Daily Telegraph on 29th July. Mr Warner’s article cited the recent railway accident in China as a sign that China’s economy ‘may even be about to come off the rails entirely’. I regret to say that the views expressed in Mr Warner’s article are too sensational and far-fetched to hold water. If his line of argument was sound, then shall we conclude that heaven forbid any crash of a Boeing or Airbus jet should be seen as a harbinger of the decline of America or Europe?

All accidents may be preventable, but they do unfortunately occur from time to time in different countries. A derailed German bullet train killed 101 people in 1998. The 2002 Potters Bar crash claimed 7 lives, including two Chinese. Japan’s Amagasaki rail accident in 2005 left 107 dead. The recent train crash in China was similarly tragic and devastating. China confronted the disaster head on. Out of a sense of responsibility to the people, the relevant authorities in China are leading an investigation to get to the bottom of the disaster. This will be an open, transparent process leading to a clear and convincing account of what went wrong and the lessons that can be learnt.

However, it would be too early and arbitrary to prejudge the investigations, and use one accident to write off China’s success in railway development, and even blame China’s social system and path of development and conclude that the Chinese economy may derail.

True, China faces myriad challenges. No one knows the scale of these challenges better than the Chinese themselves. Premier Wen Jiabao frequently refers to the ‘unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable’ elements of the Chinese economy. All these are problems along the way that we must and will overcome. And we will achieve greater prosperity and success in this process.

This is precisely what China’s 12th Five Year Plan aims to achieve. Unveiled early this year, it is a roadmap toward what we call ‘scientific development’. Over the next five years, we are determined to restructure the economy, upgrade the growth model and put greater emphasis on quality and efficiency, instead of speed and quantity. It’s clear that the strategy to modernize China can only be successful with a people-centric approach. The benefits coming out of our development must be shared among all the Chinese. People have been predicting China’s collapse for many years. These predictions will be proven wrong yet again.

A brave man learns lessons from failure. Adversity makes a nation stronger. The Chinese people are a brave people and China is a strong nation. As our ancient philosopher Lao Tzu observed, misfortune may be a blessing in disguise. Disasters throughout history have made the Chinese people more firm, more capable and wiser. The train of China’s development is moving in the right direction with a powerful engine and improved, dependable safety system. It will keep moving forward. It will carry the Chinese people into a future of prosperity and bring the world more opportunities. There is every reason that the world should have confidence in China.”

PWWWWNNNNNEEEDDD ;)
 
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