Engineer
Major
They say that China will fail soon every year for the past 20 years, but look who is in more trouble right now.
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
- Start date
They say that China will fail soon every year for the past 20 years, but look who is in more trouble right now.
Yep -- but this time the chinese embassy responded, quite well too, I might add.
Looks like China is more assertive towards this kind of B.S. now. The People's Daily Journalist and now this... All make sense.
Yano, ignoring the media hype, there are some potentially serious problems with the Chinese economy right now...just because the West is having serious problems doesn't mean their analysts are wrong...(it's not like everyone in the states was drinking the kool-aid after all).
I think there are and were potentially serious problems with every economy that's ever existed.
The problem is that most of their prominent china "analysts" are writing from an agenda than out of numbers that we're getting.
The problem is that most of their prominent china "analysts" are writing from an agenda than out of numbers that we're getting.
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
What makes them so stupid is they link any mishap that happens in China as the first domino to fall in the economy. So far none of their previous predictions have come true. That being said China is probably soon going to experience a bump. Probably for the better. They continue to think China is wholly dependent on them. China has it's own market and policies unlike all the other Asian economies that are dependent on them to which they model their conclusion about China from. Plus the majority of China exports are with the rest of the world not the US and Europe combined. The more China decouples from the West, the better. These times are just going to make it happen quicker. So what there's a train derailment. Like China is going to buy someone elses? They're still going to be buying and riding them. China isn't going to lose the international market because it's still small. They can point through veiled comments on Chinese products all they want because Chinese will be buying the Chinese brand in the end. It's not like they control the China market because they're complaining about market access right now. China is going to come out of any slowdown better. The West is going to be experiencing up and down waves. And guess who the world will be come calling to for a life line for their economies?
I wouldn't necessarily accuse them all of writing out of an agenda. For example, the growth of Chinese investments relative to consumption is a very worrisome trend, and it is often cited as a sign of a bubble. That observation also matches with the rising housing prices and the government attempting to discourage further property buys by increasing interest rates. It's not like all analysts are ignoring that the a big part of the real estate bubble has been through savings as opposed to loans either. Many of them are pointing out that the pooling of savings into property has in part been due to an insufficient banking and investment infrastructure that could absorb and distribute capital more efficiently. In that sense the lack of flexibility and diversity in China's banking system is part of the problem.
I wouldn't and didn't accuse them all of that either, only that most of the prominent ones which seem to get the most coverage lean towards that angle.
At the moment, most "analysts" which says something along the lines of "due to x reasons, china will collapse/face impending diasaster etc in z years" as a BSer (#GC). The ones writing without an agenda usually say "challenges could arise due to x reasons," but doesn't go beyond that and I consider that perfectly fine.
Didn't mean to say you were. Sorry.
It depends on what you mean by prominent. Personally, I avoid sources like the Wall Street Journal. They don't assign people who case study their subjects to write and are mostly looking to satisfy their audience rather than inform.