Chinese Economics Thread

bladerunner

Banned Idiot
I saw that story when it first appeared on Yahoo. They must think everyone is stupid when it's published right when Western markets tank. Whole lot of people in denial. Whose bubble was popped? The Shanghai Composite has been up and down where it's at for a while.

The Last time I looked (this morning)the Asian markets have tanked more eg Hang Seng nearly a 1% more than Western Markets., and its here where most of these guys do alot of their business.
Besides you are missing the point the articles about short listers,therefore they should be jumping for joy that the markets tanked thats what they're betting on.:p
 
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AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
The Last time I looked (this morning)the Asian markets have tanked moreeg Hang Seng
Besides you are missing the point, these people are jumping for joy that the markets tanked thats what they're betting on.:p

No you're missing the point that no Chinese bubble popped by these short sellers has happened. It's the typical rumor and speculation and the tail wagging the dog that is the stock market. The Shanghai Composite has been between 2500 and 3000 for a while now. Like I told you long ago the Chinese stock market is no gauge on the Chinese economy. It is more pure gambling. And that article points to fake companies and finances in the Chinese market? Sounds like the whole issue in the 2008 Western financial crisis. And as I heard someone on TV describe the stock market... it's really one giant Ponzi scheme. The difference with the Chinese stock market is the Chinese probably recognize it for what it is. When they lose money, it's like losing at gambling. So there's not this explosion of no confidence in macroeconomics like that in the West.
 

bladerunner

Banned Idiot
No you're missing the point that no Chinese bubble popped by these short sellers has happened. It's the typical rumor and speculation and the tail wagging the dog that is the stock market. The Shanghai Composite has been between 2500 and 3000 for a while now. Like I told you long ago the Chinese stock market is no gauge on the Chinese economy. It is more pure gambling. And that article points to fake companies and finances in the Chinese market? Sounds like the whole issue in the 2008 Western financial crisis. And as I heard someone on TV describe the stock market... it's really one giant Ponzi scheme. The difference with the Chinese stock market is the Chinese probably recognize it for what it is. When they lose money, it's like losing at gambling. So there's not this explosion of no confidence in macroecnomics like that in the West.

Popping was just the writer sensationlising his headline. The article was about a diverse group of people, surfies to business men who take a short position on what they considered to be shonky stocks. Not all talked about exploding a bubble, one wast talking about past experiences. even said he was no longer in the game.

It was Chanos who stated that the housing market was a bubble and would pop, and hence he was going to take a short position on over valued construction related companies. It might not have popped but that doesnt mean he hasnt collected on his shorts.

P.S. The only reason I posted the article was because it gave a interesting cross section of people who liked taking a short position in stocks. and how they went about it.Not all of them are necessarily interested in a wholesale economic collapse of China's stock market or any countries for that matter.
 
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AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Well the title says what it says. No need for interpretation. Just like from Japan comes out the charge of a nuclear accident on a Chinese nuclear sub right when the news breaks that Fukushima is now radiating deadly at short exposure levels. Now point to some short-sellers that popped a Chinese bubble nobody has heard of right when the West has the worst financial meltdown since 2008. That's called diverting attention away from one's own problems. Not really a great way to promote the wonders of a democratic system.
 

bladerunner

Banned Idiot
Well in a way some did contribute towards the popping of a bubble. The big profits being made from those shonky reverse mergers in the U.S. That was giving legit companies a bad name. You should be thankful for that. The rest is straight out sensationalising by the writer.
 

Curious George

New Member
An article from the Sydney Morning Herald:

Forget US woes, China keeps our economy strong
- Michael Pascoe
August 7, 2011

ONE more time for the dummies: we are not part of the US economy. Every day, the US matters less and Asia matters more. The American-centric mindset that a recession in the US means a recession in Australia is hopelessly out of date. It hasn't for the past two and shouldn't for the next.

The arch folly of American politics is compressing into a few years a historic sea change that should have taken decades. The downgrading of Washington's credit rating merely reflects that reality - and just helps make us look even better.

Leaving aside the disruptive impact on financial markets and concentrating on the real economy, America's impact on Australia is filtered through Asia - a buffer that grows stronger every year.

Advertisement: Story continues below Nearly 40 per cent of China's exports went to the US in 2001. Now that figure is down about 20 per cent and falling as a matter of policy. The China Daily runs stories about exporters diversifying, targeting markets in Brazil, India, Egypt, anywhere other than the US. It's an entirely obvious strategy as two-thirds of the world's growth already comes from outside the G-7, the ''old world'' major industrialised nations.

What's more, Beijing knows it has to flick the switch from exports to domestic consumption to maintain the strong economic growth it needs for social stability. That's officially spelt out in the latest five-year plan. And, unlike the US, China is actively pursuing the required economic reform instead of just talking about it.

If nothing else, America's woes provide further impetus for that necessary broadening of China's economic base, a broadening that in the immediate term sustains our commodities and capital expenditure booms and, hot on their heels, opens up greater opportunities for services trade if we're smart enough to grab them.

And in the very immediate future, the US and European troubles are likely to be enough to stay Beijing's hand from further attempts to slow its economy, just as they are keeping interest rates on hold here.

Our financial markets still slavishly take their lead from Wall Street which has a knock-on wealth effect on domestic consumer confidence, but the big drivers highlighted by the Reserve Bank, the factors that keep unemployment low, are to our north. As far as threats go, European sovereign debt is of more concern than the bleak decade facing the US as it still has potential to spill over into the international banking system.

Reasonable observers closer to that action put the odds at maybe one in three, but that means it is twice as likely that the current turmoil sparks the economic reform Mediterranean Europe seems incapable of achieving without a crisis.

Throw in the fact that, if stimulus is needed, Australia has plenty of monetary and fiscal ammunition (unlike the US and Europe) and you wouldn't want to have any other seat for the wild ride
 

Spartan95

Junior Member
P.S. The only reason I posted the article was because it gave a interesting cross section of people who liked taking a short position in stocks. and how they went about it.Not all of them are necessarily interested in a wholesale economic collapse of China's stock market or any countries for that matter.

It did provide an alternative view. Some people profit from stock price rises, others benefit when share prices falls.

However, in this particular case, I thought it is important to note that these short-sellers are in fact taking short positions before publishing their "research" to back up their short positions. In effect, the short positions become a self-fulfilling "prophecy" if stock traders buy into their "research". Hence, if their "research" is not credible, but no one checks anyway, they would be laughing all the way to the bank.

However, if their "research" actually checks out, than these short-sellers are actually profiting from what they know to be over-valued stocks.

Hmmm..... I wonder if any insiders benefited from the Sanlu (melamine milk) share price collapse?
 

bladerunner

Banned Idiot
It did provide an alternative view. Some people profit from stock price rises, others benefit when share prices falls.

However, in this particular case, I thought it is important to note that these short-sellers are in fact taking short positions before publishing their "research" to back up their short positions. In effect, the short positions become a self-fulfilling "prophecy" if stock traders buy into their "research". Hence, if their "research" is not credible, but no one checks anyway, they would be laughing all the way to the bank.

However, if their "research" actually checks out, than these short-sellers are actually profiting from what they know to be over-valued stocks.

Hmmm..... I wonder if any insiders benefited from the Sanlu (melamine milk) share price collapse?

Chuckle It then becomes a question of accepting good corruption over bad corruption.

Some more Explanations of why Chinese Companies seek listing on the U.S exchange

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Chinese reverse-merger firms delisted in U.S. may go private, lawyers say.

SINGAPORE, Aug. 5 (Thomson Reuters Accelus) - Chinese reverse merger companies recently suspended or delisted from U.S. stock exchanges for various breaches may find it more viable to go private than to re-list in the U.S. or elsewhere, lawyers said. The protracted investigations by U.S. regulators and the potential costs involved in settling the lawsuits mean that, for some companies, selling their entities would be a better strategy.

When the benefits of listing are outweighed by the time and expense, some companies might choose not to re-gain listing in the U.S. or in other jurisdictions, Barry Genkin, partner at Blank Rome and chair of the firm’s Asia capital market practice told Thomson Reuters. ”In other situations, from a strategic prospective, it may make sense for the company to be sold,” he added.

In the last few years, many mainland Chinese companies with funding needs have made a beeline for the U.S. capital market following unsuccessful attempts to secure bank borrowings in China. Mainland Chinese banks and China’s domestic capital market have traditionally been skewed in favour of state-owned enterprises rather than privately owned companies.

At a recent conference held in Singapore, Liu Qingsong, senior research fellow at the China Securities Regulatory Commission, attributed this phenomenon to the “imbalances between direct financing and indirect financing” in China’s bank market, as well as “imbalances in China’s securities market structure”.

A COSTLY AFFAIR

When listing via reverse merger in the U.S. proved to be a less expensive and time-consuming route compared with the traditional initial public offering process, which entails extensive disclosure and massive compliance costs, listing in the U.S. became appealing and practical at the same time. But the recent U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s probe into some Chinese reverse merger companies for listing breaches and alleged fraud, and the ensuing lawsuits, may turn out to be a much more costly affair than these companies had initially envisaged.

Siu Woon-Wah, partner at Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman, based in Shanghai, thinks it is too early to tell the fate of Chinese reverse merger companies whose shares have been suspended from trading or which have been delisted, many of which are under investigation.

“Investigation usually takes time. If a company is found to have done nothing wrong, the company can get back on track by filing the all the necessary SEC reports and be listed on an exchange or be quoted on the U.S. Over-the-Counter Bulletin Board again. If a company is found to have committed wrongdoings, the company and its directors and officers may have civil and even criminal liabilities. The most unfortunate case would be when a company did not commit any wrongdoing but suffered so much reputational or financial damage from the allegations that it could not recover,” she said.

Siu said typically Chinese companies that became public in the U.S. via the reverse takeover process have their shares quoted on the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority-regulated OTCBB, which requires them to be 1934 Act reporting companies. That requirement for OTCBB companies entails various filings with the SEC as well as compliance costs, although compliance costs for OTCBB companies are lower compared to those costs for exchange-listed companies.

Siu said being a 1934 Act reporting company is important to any company interested in raising capital because most investors would expect some level of transparency on the part of the companies in which they invest, through their public disclosure.

In the recent saga surrounding Chinese reverse merger companies, a number of them, according to Siu, have ceased to qualify for quotation on OTCBB because they had failed to comply with their 1934 Act reporting obligations. As a result, they became “pink sheet companies” — companies whose shares are quoted in the unregulated OTC market but which do not require reporting.

Still, Siu believes many companies that went public via reverse merger ultimately aim for a listing on a main board of U.S. stock exchanges. “Why would a company spend the time and effort to become public in the U.S. market? It is not cheap to go public in the U.S. even if a company does so via a reverse merger. And many of these Chinese companies want to have access to capital in a liquid and deep market in the first place to finance their operations,” she said.

TO LIST OR NOT TO LIST

Lawyers said Chinese reverse mergers could apply for re-listing on U.S. exchanges if they resolved the issues raised by the U.S. regulators. Genkin said: “To the extent these companies are able to cure the issues raised by the SEC, and assuming they can once again meet the listing standards, they should be able to re-apply for re-listing. Where companies choose not to or cannot meet the listing standards, they may consider listing on other exchanges where they are able to meet the listing criteria.”

Siu, however, warned that re-listing elsewhere is not the panacea for Chinese reverse merger companies facing regulators’ probe and lawsuits as some might think. She said those companies should deal with their current issues or they could face potential challenges in their re-listing efforts. She pointed to the Hong Kong and China markets, whose stock exchanges and regulators require issuers to disclose their history.

“For instance, if an issuer applying for a listing in Hong Kong were a Chinese reverse merger company that had been delisted or investigated, the Hong Stock Exchange and the Securities and Futures Commission would want the issuer to disclose the history of the reverse merger, why the issuer was investigated by U.S. regulators, the outcome of the investigation and why the issuer went dark in the U.S. market,” she said.

NATIONAL POLICY, OR MOTIVATION

The recent episode involving Chinese reverse merger companies in the U.S. has shed light on the predicament of China’s privately owned companies in securing financing in their home market and the potential quagmire should they be caught in lawsuits. The problem, however, is a less straightforward one, according to experts. It involves not only China’s national policy but also the motivations behind some of these Chinese companies’ decisions to tap the U.S. capital market.

Simon Gleave, KPMG’s partner in charge of financial services in China, told a recent conference that some Chinese companies listed overseas had management with a very short-term approach. “One of the problems in China itself has been that in newly listed companies, CEOs don’t stay very long. They make money and then disappear into America or wherever they want to live,” he said.

Some industry experts said the saga should serve as a starting point for Chinese regulators to re-evaluate the lending policies that they have laid down for domestic banks.

Siu said: “At the moment, it is still not easy for small and medium sized Chinese private enterprises to borrow from mainland Chinese banks. Often they are able to secure only short-term bank borrowings. Chinese banks’ lending practice is often aligned with or influenced by national policy. The state-owned enterprises have no problem in securing loans from Chinese banks. If Chinese banks can be more open to providing financing to Chinese private enterprises, it may reduce the need for these enterprises to access overseas capital markets.”

(This article was produced by the Compliance Complete service of Thomson Reuters Accelus. Compliance Complete (
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
ions/regulatory-intelligence/compliance- complete/) provides a single source for regulatory news, analysis, rules and developments, with global coverage of more than 230 regulators and exchanges.)
 
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bladerunner

Banned Idiot
How long will it take before Chinas LED industry become like its solar power business and be the industry leader

http://www.isuppli.com/China-Electronics-Supply-Chain/MarketWatch/Pages/China-LED-Industry-Lights-Up-to-Nearly-$6-Billion-for-2011.aspx

China LED Industry Lights Up to Nearly $6 Billion for 2011
LED space flourishes, thanks to government support and robust demand
August 8, 2011
Vincent Gu
Buoyed by government support and increased penetration into new applications, the China market for light-emitting diodes (LED) will jump to $5.8 billion in 2011, up a strong 23 percent from $4.7 billion last year.

Gaining greater exposure in markets like liquid crystal display (LCD) TVs and street lighting, LEDs have become a hot item for manufacturing in China and also an attractive investment segment in the country. Moreover, official government commitments to the industry appear to be paying off dividends. The LED market in the world’s most populous country is forecast to reach $6.9 billion next year on its way to $11.1 billion by 2015, equivalent to a five-year compound annual growth rate by then of 17.7 per*cent.

Exceedingly broad, the Chinese LED market covers a range of applications including LED displays, traffic signals, automotive use, LCD backlighting, handset key pads, digital still camera fl ashlights, decora*tive lighting, street lighting and general illumination.

Street lighting will be the biggest segment, reaching $1.5 billion this year and anticipated to hit $1.8 billion in 2012. The LCD backlighting market is also headed for strong growth on the strength of the rapid adoption of LEDs for large-sized LCD TVs and laptops, generating $1.8 billion in 2015, up from $713 million this year.

A new demand driver for LEDs in the medium to the long term will be the general lighting market. Given the global trend to reduce carbon emissions, China demand in the general lighting segment will be strong for LEDs, which offer low-power consumption and are environmentally safe. LED shipments for general lighting will make up 15.5 percent of the total LED market this year, IHS iSuppli data show.

Despite the current popularity of LEDs in China, the domestic LED industry is still in its infancy compared to its counterpart in thriving LED-focused countries such as the United States and Taiwan. Some reasons why China trails in the field include lagging technological capabilities currently available in the country as well as a paucity in adequately experienced management teams and R&D engineers to lead the way. Furthermore, the lack of Chinese intellectual property in core and upriver segments—such as in LED wafers—is a serious concern.

Still, China’s LED players enjoy ample funding from local and government sources, which should help domestic entities capture the large Chinese end demand for LEDs in the future. To date, local gov*ernments in China subsidize at least 70 percent of the purchase price for metal organic chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD) equipment employed in LED manufacturing—a percentage translating into some $1.5 million for each machine. Furthermore, tax and utility payment benefits are offered to encourage investments in the domestic LED industry, proving to be an additional boon for local players.

Read More > China Witnessing the Rise of its Flourishing LED Industry

On another note

I just heard that Haier bought Sanyos Whiteware Division. I wonder if they will buy Sanyos electronic Division and then i can buy a Sanyo LED TV Maybe. My Sanyo colour TV has finally broken down. I bought it for my father in 1973 and its only had one tube replacement and a few valves during that time. I was looking at a Sony LED 46cm with Internet $2000 hmmmm
 
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