Chinese Economics Thread

[Gatekeeper]

China needs to increase the birthrate in order to avoid a skyrocketing dependency ratio. Plus the Americans are already thinking of increasing their population to 1 billion.

@hashtagpls

This dependency ratio is a complete crap. It is a western concept. It is because their system of providing social care is completely different.

In the past, the elderly have to work till they drop. China has family and others to take care of their parents. Where as in western society, this is not the case.

So in the UK, the national insurance system was introduced to take care of the old. The problem is the money paid into the system is used elsewhere instead. So when these people retires, the burden falls on the current generation that's in work. Which is is why they are worry about the dependence ratio.

One way to get by that is to have ever increasing population. Basically pass the buck down the line.

Slowly, the western politicians sees this as untainable and unsustainable. Which is why in the UK is using private insurance and making it mandatory for ALL companies to provide done sort of "private company" pension scheme for its workers (the last of this jigsaw came in place a couple of years ago, where even small employers employing just one employees have to provide a pension scheme).

All these to mitigate the "dependence ratio". BUT China don't have such problem to the scale. If you think China should go back to the days of starving millions, just so we don't have the "dependency ratuo". Good luck with that.

Just on the side note, this is exactly how super power India mindset is right now. They think they can be super dupa no.1 because of their "population dividends". Yes it's true that bigger the population, bigger the chances of economic power. But all they succeed in doing it's to create millions of mouths that they can't feed. And are dependence on hand to mouth existence. Talk about dependency ratios!

You've been reading too much of the economists where they say "China will get old before it get rich".

I rather have that than "China Will get poor before it gets old"!


Edit. Just saw @gadgetcool5 post of #15496. If anyone needs convincing that increase population is the answer. Just read his post. We all know how out there his posts are! Lol

 

[NiuBiDaRen]

@hashtagpls

This dependency ratio is a complete crap. It is a western concept. It is because their system of providing social care is completely different.

In the past, the elderly have to work till they drop. China has family and others to take care of their parents. Where as in western society, this is not the case.

So in the UK, the national insurance system was introduced to take care of the old. The problem is the money paid into the system is used elsewhere instead. So when these people retires, the burden falls on the current generation that's in work. Which is is why they are worry about the dependence ratio.

One way to get by that is to have ever increasing population. Basically pass the buck down the line.

Slowly, the western politicians sees this as untainable and unsustainable. Which is why in the UK is using private insurance and making it mandatory for ALL companies to provide done sort of "private company" pension scheme for its workers (the last of this jigsaw came in place a couple of years ago, where even small employers employing just one employees have to provide a pension scheme).

All these to mitigate the "dependence ratio". BUT China don't have such problem to the scale. If you think China should go back to the days of starving millions, just so we don't have the "dependency ratuo". Good luck with that.

You've been reading too much of the economists where they say "China will get old before it get rich".

I rather have that than "China Will get poor before it gets old"!

Lol in the West, just send your parents to the nursing home (and get covid) once they're useless to you.

 

[Petrolicious88]

Good summary. I dont think its cargo cult behavior from America though. The pro-immigration stance is deeply engrained into American strategy.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1342683406241587202

No one is forcing these people to immigrate though. They willingly do so to look for higher pay, better environment, etc...

 

[Hendrik_2000]

I bow to your knowledge of Thailand. But I recall reading somewhere that Chinese diaspora in Thailand all took Thai names because of discrimination. This maybe in the distant past, but hey, I took it as discrimination nonetheless.

yes it was under prime minister Phibul Songkran who is pro Japan and anti China that Thai forced the Chinese to change their name and forced them to use Thai language.

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The Indonesian copy this practice. But to this days they still practice Chinese custom and celebrate Chinese festivals. On the other hand Thai never discriminate Chinese to the extent of Malaysia or Indonesia. In fact Chinese dominate most of the Thai economy and politic The last 8 out of 10 Thai prime ministers are all Chinese all they way to Thai king and dynasty founder King Rama. Most of the bank and biggest conglomerate like Charoen Pokhpand industry are all own by the Chinese Statistically Chinese only make small proportion of the population if you consider only pure blood Chinese.

But if you count mixed blood then maybe half of the population have Chinese ancestry specially in big cities like Bangkok, Chiangmai etc. They know their family history. The king sister Princess Mahachakri Sirindhoern is fluent Chinese speaker and she went to China to study Chinese in her younger years. And went revisit frequently. She is the only Thai dignitary who has visit every single Chinese province. She is consider the patron of Chinese Thai community and went to celebrate Chinese new year in Bangkok China town every year. Unlike her King brother is much beloved by the Thai people and 2nd in line of Thai throne

The Chinese government confer her the medal of Chinese friendship

 

[Gatekeeper]

Good summary. I dont think its cargo cult behavior from America though. The pro-immigration stance is deeply engrained into American strategy.

Really, except it doesn't applies to Chinamen. Think Chinese exclusion clause. Least we forget that shameful chapter of the great America. Land of the free....... only if you are white.

 

[Gatekeeper]

You can keep the seniors in active workforce longer, either full time or part time, thus keeping the overall productivity more or less the same.
Maintaining a high domestic saving rate wouldn't require foreign borrowings to cover for the fiscal shortfalls. Also an increased percentage in R & D and government spending on social welfare for seniors would smooth out the total expenditure. There will be a lot more innovative ways to handle this issue than making more babies who may or may not help to solve the problems the way you anticipate.

Exactly, in the UK. Official retirement age for men was 65 and for women was 60. But because successive governments' fecked up. They are real "dependence issues" the government introduce company pensions right down to one employees. And at the same time increased retirement age.

Women have not been increased to same as men. And men have been increased to 67 at the moment. With plans afoot to increase this to 70.

I mean who wants to work at 70?

 

[Gatekeeper]

look at the ageing of europe, when there arne't enough people to act as consumers and tax payers

Please read some economic 101 before coming on here to show your ignorance.

1st. Aged people are consumers.
2nd. Aged people are also tax payers.

 

[Gatekeeper]

Anyway I've totally given up on Western media.

View attachment 66918

I remember this headline came out of a reputable newspaper, I think UK. I guess they really want to see all of us Chinese as Fu Manchu types...

This was posted a few weeks back. Laugh our heads off then. And it still does. Thanks for the reminder. Lol

 

[Gatekeeper]

replace billion with million

The main issue is not the total population but the proportion of the population over 65 yrs old, basically the proportion of productive workers to the total population. Japan has very high percentage population over 65 yrs old and getting higher every day, the same thing happening in Korea and EU and somewhat UK, USA, Australia and NZ. China is no different just a matter of time, perhaps in 25-30 yrs time would be in similar situation of Japan today

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Yes thanks. I already apologies as was pointed out by another poster earlier.

Yes you are right it is not the old age per se. It is the dependency that's the issue. As in the UK, the have already address this by increasing the retirement age. Ensure everyone got a company pensions (So less reliance on state pensions). This is party cultural as the UK don't have the family ethos like the Chinese.

They don't visit their elderly until Xmas. Rest of the time, their grandma could died and no one would know about it. (I have first hand experience with one of my neighbours). Only then the relatives comes out the woodwork and claim inheritance.

We Chinese lives in a more social grouping while elderly are revered and respected. My grandparents lived with us. They were never dependent on the state. Unlike the west.

 

[Gatekeeper]

But those advocating for population decline are enemies of China.

You're having a laugh. Aren't you?

So according to you. Deng and everyone else that advocated the one child policy are......... enemies of China!

@zgx09t

In his mind. Yes! You know he lives on another planet, let alone pie in the sky.