Chinese Economics Thread

[antiterror13]

Where is apple making its iCar ? USA/China or India ?

not India for sure, especially after the riot

 

[Litebreeze]

Other than American and malcontent Uyghurs say so, have they ever proven slave labour is used in Xinjiang?

I think they all know it's just fake news, fake research from troll farms that would not be proven true anyway. If they really go to China to investigate and find out it's not true, USUK and their stinky tank will have no where to hide their faces. So they just conveniently ignore it rather than actually go to China to prove it.

 

[KYli]

An hour of outage and the media is having a field day. NYT has been degraded.

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[Tyler]

Biden wont reverse a single thing. He already faces allegation of being a Chinese mole with the whole Hunter Biden thing. Infact i expect him to be more tough on China to shed off this image that's being projected.

I expect the chip ban to soon cover every Chinese company and we may well see US sanctions entering the financial sphere including China being cut off from SWIFT.

Things will only go downhill from here and War will be imminent.

Very soon there will be a reverse ban on US entities by China.

 

[Tyler]

Are those the only 2 options? Maybe it will make it in Vietnam, or elsewhere in SEA.

Tesla will go broke soon. Vietnam does not even have the battery technology. Most likely most EVs will be made in China/Korea/Japan.

 

[Litebreeze]

Another source of natural gas is secured. China-Iran started drilling last week.

"Drilling operations of the first well of the game-changing but highly-controversial Phase 11 of Iran’s supergiant South Pars non-associated natural gas field officially began last week."​

Wicked! How France's Total withdrawn from the project.

​

"The pressure that the U.S. put on [French oil giant] Total [which at the time of its withdrawal in the middle of 2018 from Phase 11 held a 50.1 per cent stake in the US$4.8 billion project and had already invested around US$1 billion] was enormous"​

​

“Its ruthless handling of Total was designed by the U.S. to show the E.U. [European Union] – which was trying to find a way to ignore the new U.S, sanctions – that, regardless of the E.U.’s efforts to avoid going along with the new U.S. restrictions on Iran, it had better do so, or else,” ​

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[ansy1968]

I wouldn't characterize the country-to-country relationship in romantic terms. Countries have national interests. Australia has natural tendency to align with Anglosphere, which is understandable. But what they have done in the last couple of years to China is fundamentally against their own national interest. They are and should be punished by China. I don't think China has ever expected Australia to be pro-China, instead just to be a normal and friendly country to conduct business with. For that matter, I don't expect China to turn hostile towards Australia forever. They'll just incur enough damage to Australia, or to kill a chicken to scare the money, to borrow a Chinese phrase.

It'll take some time before the two countries to come back to a more normal relationship. Australia cannot expect that everything will be forgotten and be back to normal just because Scott Morrison has now praised the success of China's poverty alleviation program. They would have to show their sincerity and make amends. In the long term, it'll be in both countries' interest to have a friendly and normal relationship. Australia is not yet a mature and psychologically independent country. They still consider themselves an appendage to the motherlands of UK or the US, forever worrying to be abandoned.

Hi weig2000,

What I'm saying is this anger is directed to China itself for letting herself believe this globalization crap. So the main thrust now is to lessen your dependency and diversify your needs. As the west decouple, China is doing the same not for retaliation but as a way of getting things back to normality. Globalization is over period, every nation will not let themselves hostage to foreign whims. Australia and China will normalize their relationship but it will not be the same as before, the OZ will be on the backburner of China interest , as she decouple from Australia and look elsewhere.

 

[MixedReality]

Hi weig2000,

What I'm saying is this anger is directed to China itself for letting herself believe this globalization crap. So the main thrust now is to lessen your dependency and diversify your needs. As the west decouple, China is doing the same not for retaliation but as a way of getting things back to normality. Globalization is over period, every nation will not let themselves hostage to foreign whims. Australia and China will normalize their relationship but it will not be the same as before, the OZ will be on the backburner of China interest , as she decouple from Australia and look elsewhere.

Australia has nothing to offer China apart from iron ore. Even iron ore China will replace as much as possible.

 

[ansy1968]

Australia has nothing to offer China apart from iron ore. Even iron ore China will replace as much as possible.

Hi MixedReality,

And it's to late for Australia to realized that , and I quote Their delusion about their importance is the driving force behind their arrogance.

 

[kentchang]

Hi weig2000,

What I'm saying is this anger is directed to China itself for letting herself believe this globalization crap. So the main thrust now is to lessen your dependency and diversify your needs. As the west decouple, China is doing the same not for retaliation but as a way of getting things back to normality. Globalization is over period, every nation will not let themselves hostage to foreign whims. Australia and China will normalize their relationship but it will not be the same as before, the OZ will be on the backburner of China interest , as she decouple from Australia and look elsewhere.

Global trade is not dead. Global trade will re-emerge after the world reaches the next equilibrium. During this transitional period, international trade will be more regional/block-focused. EU, RCEP, AU, Mercosur, NAFTA, TPP, etc... The Arabs are divided into two camps and India is alone insulated hoping its huge population can generate enough domestic consumption to sustain growth.

By 2040, EU + NA will account for less than 20% (8% EU+12% NA) of the world's economy with 4 of of the top 5 GDP's in Asia (China, India, Japan, and Indonesia). By then, the Anglos will have recognized that resistance is futile while the other Europeans will have already aligned themselves with Asia.

COVID-19 is a great analogy. U.S. vs China today is like how Americans felt in March/April 2020 when infections are getting worse but there was still hope things can turn around. 2040 will be like after July 4th when Americans totally gave up trying and just waiting for the vaccine. So if you are reading this in EU or NA, remember how you feel about defeating the virus without vaccine today because that is how Anglos will feel about challenging China in 2040.

How does the world adjust itself towards a new equilibrium? Easy. By people retiring and dying. A typical 45-year old angry laid-off American factory worker today will stop protesting and voting before 2050 because he will be dead before then. His children probably has more relevant skill sets for 2050 America. In a way, the American Baby Boomer generation is very much like the Chinese generation born around 1800/Napoleonic time, both witnessed the steady and unstoppable decline of their respective societies.

Global trade will return because it represents the natural course as transportation cost steadily declines. Just mean reversion.