Chinese Economics Thread

[ansy1968]

Global trade is not dead. Global trade will re-emerge after the world reaches the next equilibrium. During this transitional period, international trade will be more regional/block-focused. EU, RCEP, AU, Mercosur, NAFTA, TPP, etc... The Arabs are divided into two camps and India is alone insulated hoping its huge population can generate enough domestic consumption to sustain growth.

By 2040, EU + NA will account for less than 20% (8% EU+12% NA) of the world's economy with 4 of of the top 5 GDP's in Asia (China, India, Japan, and Indonesia). By then, the Anglos will have recognized that resistance is futile while the other Europeans will have already aligned themselves with Asia.

COVID-19 is a great analogy. U.S. vs China today is like how Americans felt in March/April 2020 when infections are getting worse but there was still hope things can turn around. 2040 will be like after July 4th when Americans totally gave up trying and just waiting for the vaccine. So if you are reading this in EU or NA, remember how you feel about defeating the virus without vaccine today because that is how Anglos will feel about challenging China in 2040.

How does the world adjust itself towards a new equilibrium? Easy. By people retiring and dying. A typical 45-year old angry laid-off American factory worker today will stop protesting and voting before 2050 because he will be dead before then. His children probably has more relevant skill sets for 2050 America. In a way, the American Baby Boomer generation is very much like the Chinese generation born around 1800/Napoleonic time, both witnessed the steady and unstoppable decline of their respective societies.

Global trade will return because it represents the natural course as transportation cost steadily declines. Just mean reversion.

Hi kentchang,

It will but at different form, As I said China will decouple with the 5 eyes or anglosphere nation cause they had placed their bets with the US. As the US leverage its alliance against CHINA the Chinese will do the same with their economy, In these way decoupling is a solution to each other problem and OZ should learn to accept it since she decided to cast it's lot with the US. You can't have it both ways.

 

[hashtagpls]

Just as China is allowing US finance firms to have majority shares in Chinese companies, and just as China is allowing the EU to have more market access into China and to even buy up Chinese companies, outright it would be prudent to investigate each and every investment for downstream national security impacts.

After all, the Australians denied 10 Chinese investment projects on dubious "national security" grounds despite having Foreign Invest Review Board Approval. How the fuck, for instance does China investing in an Australian milk company affect Australia's national security? The Australian Treasurer Frydenberg and PM ScoMo were doing their bit to contain China for the Americans.
They must pay.

 

[localizer]

Just as China is allowing US finance firms to have majority shares in Chinese companies, and just as China is allowing the EU to have more market access into China and to even buy up Chinese companies, outright it would be prudent to investigate each and every investment for downstream national security impacts.

After all, the Australians denied 10 Chinese investment projects on dubious "national security" grounds despite having Foreign Invest Review Board Approval. How the fuck, for instance does China investing in an Australian milk company affect Australia's national security? The Australian Treasurer Frydenberg and PM ScoMo were doing their bit to contain China for the Americans.
They must pay.

It's all a retarded race to the bottom

CCP felt baited with the trade war n all, n the taiwan, HK situation.

these are all baits to "give me an excuse to fuck you up"

so far they haven't given in/overreacted

 

[gelgoog]

Another source of natural gas is secured. China-Iran started drilling last week.

"Drilling operations of the first well of the game-changing but highly-controversial Phase 11 of Iran’s supergiant South Pars non-associated natural gas field officially began last week."​

Wicked! How France's Total withdrawn from the project.

​

"The pressure that the U.S. put on [French oil giant] Total [which at the time of its withdrawal in the middle of 2018 from Phase 11 held a 50.1 per cent stake in the US$4.8 billion project and had already invested around US$1 billion] was enormous"​

​

“Its ruthless handling of Total was designed by the U.S. to show the E.U. [European Union] – which was trying to find a way to ignore the new U.S, sanctions – that, regardless of the E.U.’s efforts to avoid going along with the new U.S. restrictions on Iran, it had better do so, or else,” ​

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

This is why the USA has troops in Germany. It is not to protect Germans. Unless you consider it as protection Mafia style.
Latest crop of French leaders also have no backbone. Project to have European military alliance based on France-UK failed because of UK never really committing to it. Those two countries had best chance to provide Europe with military backbone. Now attempts to make France-Germany alliance are in progress but I doubt it will work.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

Now instead of China keel over and met her Chernobyl, Her economy outperformed the west and on the buying spree of developing country weaken companies. Break up the western companies strangle hold on key market. etc.
The west is powerless and can only look with grit teeth and clenched fist out of anger and envy Now where is Gadget tool ?
For politicians who were trying to contain China before Covid-19 wrecked their economies, watching it snap up distressed assets may be a bitter pill to swallow. They might have to choke it down anyway.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Breakingviews - China’s economic triumphalism gets harder to take​

By

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

HONG KONG (Reuters Breakingviews) - China’s speedy recovery from the pandemic will get harder for the world to take in 2021. Rapid containment of Covid-19 after it emerged in Wuhan let President Xi Jinping restart factories quickly, helping companies seize record export market share. With the renminbi strong, a resurgence of overseas M&A will come next. Struggling governments, especially in the developing world, will find China’s cash difficult to resist.

It’s unsurprising that China has outperformed. First into recession, draconian measures helped the country leap out first too. But even as it sealed off the viral epicentre in Hubei, flights from China kept landing in overseas airports, helping to set off a pandemic that will have shrunk the global economy by 5% in 2020, estimates the World Bank.
That’s why Europeans and Americans may find China’s recent trade performance galling. By July, China’s share of global exports reached a record 14%, a share not enjoyed by any country since the United States in 1981. Exports by value expanded 3% year-on-year that month to $158 billion, even as rich-country exports shrank 7%. In short, overseas demand did far more to support China’s recovery than the other way around.

The deficit spike is due in part to China’s dominance of medical equipment, and frozen offshore tourism, both of which will revert. Even so, Chinese manufacturers are exploiting the discombobulation of foreign rivals. Zoomlion, a rival to Caterpillar, boasted in its first-half earnings report that it finally managed to break the “long-term monopoly” of Western competitors in Malaysia.

There might be another irritant in the offing. The yuan rallied over 6% against the dollar in 2020, positioning China Inc to restart overseas dealmaking, which dropped after foreign governments began blocking transactions and Beijing grew concerned about overstretched balance sheets.
The currency’s newfound strength has Beijing encouraging outward investment to offset speculative inflows. While diplomatic tensions may keep barriers up in Western markets, poorer nations like Turkey, where the yuan had appreciated 29% against the lira by mid-December, may be happy to let Chinese buyers save struggling local employers. State-owned giants are already snapping up assets in Latin America.

For politicians who were trying to contain China before Covid-19 wrecked their economies, watching it snap up distressed assets may be a bitter pill to swallow. They might have to choke it down anyway.
- This is a Breakingviews prediction for 2021. To see more of our predictions, click

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

 

[plawolf]

Now instead of China keel over and met her Chernobyl, Her economy outperformed the west and on the buying spree of developing country weaken companies. Break up the western companies strangle hold on key market. etc.
The west is powerless and can only look with grit teeth and clenched fist out of anger and envy Now where is Gadget tool ?
For politicians who were trying to contain China before Covid-19 wrecked their economies, watching it snap up distressed assets may be a bitter pill to swallow. They might have to choke it down anyway.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Breakingviews - China’s economic triumphalism gets harder to take​

By

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

... But even as it sealed off the viral epicentre in Hubei, flights from China kept landing in overseas airports, helping to set off a pandemic that will have shrunk the global economy by 5% in 2020, estimates the World Bank.
That’s why Europeans and Americans may find China’s recent trade performance galling...

Yeah flights kept landing in western countries - the ‘rescue’ flights organised by western governments designed to damage China and score cheap political points by deliberately breaking Chinese attempts to quarantine Wuhan, and which the Chinese authorities were initially keen to prevent until western politicians and media cretins kicked up a giant fuss over, which the disgusting Sweeney and his ilk most likely joined in enthusiastically.

 

[localizer]

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

 

[gadgetcool5]

PetroChina Makes Huge Gas Find​

PetroChina discovered a natural gas field with reserves in excess of 100 billion cubic meters, Chinese states news agency Xinhua

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

this weekend.

The agency cited a company official who said the field could produce 610,000 cubic meters of gas plus 106.3 cubic meters of crude oil daily.

"The discovery marks a major breakthrough in gas exploration in the southern rim of the Junggar Basin, which will further guarantee the gas supply of our company and contribute to the stability and prosperity of the region," Huo Jin, general manager of PetroChina's unit in the northwestern province of Xinjiang, said.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Hopefully this is real and not BS. The economic development of Xinjiang is critical to address the root causes of terrorism and fulfill the aspirations of the Muslim Uighur Chinese minority, who are under intense attack by Western sanctions.

 

[PhSt]

PetroChina Makes Huge Gas Find​

PetroChina discovered a natural gas field with reserves in excess of 100 billion cubic meters, Chinese states news agency Xinhua

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

this weekend.

The agency cited a company official who said the field could produce 610,000 cubic meters of gas plus 106.3 cubic meters of crude oil daily.

"The discovery marks a major breakthrough in gas exploration in the southern rim of the Junggar Basin, which will further guarantee the gas supply of our company and contribute to the stability and prosperity of the region," Huo Jin, general manager of PetroChina's unit in the northwestern province of Xinjiang, said.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Hopefully this is real and not BS. The economic development of Xinjiang is critical to address the root causes of terrorism and fulfill the aspirations of the Muslim Uighur Chinese minority, who are under intense attack by Western sanctions.

The West clearly wants to steal resources in China's rich regions like Xinjiang that's why they are ramping up their support for secessionist forces under the guise of supporting "human rights"

Meanwhile, the US is still not held accountable for its gruesome human rights violations across the world.

 

[OppositeDay]

PetroChina Makes Huge Gas Find​

PetroChina discovered a natural gas field with reserves in excess of 100 billion cubic meters, Chinese states news agency Xinhua

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

this weekend.

The agency cited a company official who said the field could produce 610,000 cubic meters of gas plus 106.3 cubic meters of crude oil daily.

"The discovery marks a major breakthrough in gas exploration in the southern rim of the Junggar Basin, which will further guarantee the gas supply of our company and contribute to the stability and prosperity of the region," Huo Jin, general manager of PetroChina's unit in the northwestern province of Xinjiang, said.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Hopefully this is real and not BS. The economic development of Xinjiang is critical to address the root causes of terrorism and fulfill the aspirations of the Muslim Uighur Chinese minority, who are under intense attack by Western sanctions.

Most of Xinjiang's oil and gas fields (this new one included) are in North Xinjiang while most Uyghurs live in South Xinjiang. So oil and gas is not the solution to Uyghur's economic problems. However, oil and gas is the reason why Uyghur separatists have been lying through their teeth and claiming North Xinjiang as part of their 'East Turkestan' despite it's historically inhabited by Mongols and had little to do with Uyghurs.