Chinese Economics Thread

Gatekeeper

Brigadier
Registered Member
Trump had to give farmers billions because of Chinese tariffs. They already lost by their own logic.

It just amazes me that whilst all the time, Trump and the MSM shouting from the top, and with one voice that China is not playing fair, with all the tech transfer, tax breaks, and currency manipulation, etc!

But they completely ignor the MASSIVE subsidies Trump had to pay to keep his beloved farmers afloat and onside!

Isn't government handouts a state intervention?! Lol
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
This was bound to happen soon.

China Surpasses the U.S. in Wealth of Top 10%
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•December 24, 2019


Despite an
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and facing increased tariffs from a trade war with the United States,
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has surpassed America in having the highest number of residents in the top 10% of the world's wealth. That is according to the
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put together by Credit Suisse Group, a Swiss multinational investment bank and financial services company.

The report shows both the growing wealth and the rising inequality around the world and particularly in China, the world's second-biggest economy. Public anger over inequality has
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around the world this year.

"However, inequality has risen considerably since the year 2000," say the authors of the 10th edition of the Credit Suisse wealth report. "China now has 4.4 million millionaires and achieved another landmark this year with 100 million members of the global top 10%, overtaking for the first time the 99 million members in the United States."

In addition, the Chinese account for nearly half of the people considered to be in the middle class, with the Asian nation having managed to lift more than 850 million people out of poverty in the past 40 years.

China "was one of the few countries to avoid the impact of the global financial crisis,"
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"China's progress has enabled it to replace Europe as the principal source of global wealth growth and to replace Japan as the country with the second-largest number of millionaires."

Although the country started from a much lower position at the beginning of the 21st century, China has seen accelerated economic growth and developed wealth faster than other nations. During this century, total household wealth in China has risen seventeenfold, from $3.7 trillion to $63.8 trillion, more than triple the rate of the majority of nations.

"The global financial crisis caused a small setback, but wealth growth soon resumed and, unlike most other economies, China came close to matching its pre-crisis pace, at least until 2014," notes the report. More importantly, neither the debt level, nor the current trade conditions are seen as affecting China's consistent growth in the upcoming years, the experts from Credit Suisse report.

[MORE:
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]

Among other findings in the analysis:

-- Global wealth reached $361 trillion in 2019. There are currently 47 million millionaires in the world, representing 1% of adults who collectively own 44% of all wealth.

-- By total household wealth, China is behind only the U.S., buoyed by a strong property market, say the report's authors. "The proportion of household assets in non-financial form rose from 43% in 2015 to 53% in 2019." By international standards, China's debt ratio is still low.

-- The number of very wealthy people in the
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is still the highest in the world. The United States has the most members in the top 1% of wealth, and holds 40% of the world's millionaires. Americans with wealth above $50 million are about four times more numerous than the same socio-economic category in China.

--
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tops the list of nations with the highest average wealth per adult, at $564,650, followed by
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($489,260) and the U.S. ($432,370).

Other countries are also growing in wealth.
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has seen consistently better numbers after a setback in 2008 during the financial crisis. Wealth has steadily increased, reaching a peak in 2017 of $15,000 per adult. As of mid-2019, average wealth per person in the country was $14,569.

Sintia Radu is an international affairs and global technology reporter at U.S. News & World Report. She previously reported on business and technology for the Washington Post and the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. She served as the managing editor for Esquire Romania. She graduated from the Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, and earned her Master of Arts in Journalism at the University of Missouri. She is a fellow of the National Press Foundation for a program on the impact of artificial intelligence. She was part of the 2016 Women in STEM cohort at Chicago's 1871 technology and entrepreneurship center, and helped design a multiple award-winning iOS/watchOS app profiled in the 2017 Associated Press report on
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. She is a Fulbright scholarship recipient and gave a
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on immigration and diversity. Follow her on
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, connect with her on
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, or email her at [email protected].

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2handedswordsman

Junior Member
Registered Member
How China is ahead of UK in development
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reminded me of 1980s Communistic text calling the UK like 'a poorhouse of Europe', funny the Albion is still propagandists' target

It's also quite funny how soviet union and the eastern bloc is still propagadists' target after 30 years of its fall. Even in DPRK, Kim feed his dogs with fresh executives' flesh. LOL
 

Xizor

Captain
Registered Member
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Some interesting indicators regarding Chinese economy of 2019. 2020 looks good for China.
Yearender-Economic Watch: How China proved pessimists wrong in 2019

By Xinhua writers Zhang Yiyi, Liu Yinglun and Wang Xiuqiong


BEIJING, Dec. 24 (Xinhua) -- As the year 2019 draws to an end, China pessimists may find little evidence, again, to flesh out their ill-informed and misleading claims on the economy.


In their eyes, doom and gloom seemed the only possible scenario for China amid trade disputes and mounting external uncertainties. To their surprise, or dismay, resilience and vigor of the Chinese economy have proved quite the opposite.
Here is a fact-check on how at least six false claims about China's economy have fallen apart this year.


NATURAL SLOWDOWN OR BLEAK GROWTH?
Some scare-mongers have long tried to sell the message of a "hard landing" of the Chinese economy, whose resilient growth this year made this theory all the more flimsy.
China's GDP expanded 6.2 percent year on year in the first three quarters of 2019, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed. The growth, in line with the government's annual target of 6-6.5 percent set for 2019, still outpaces other major economies including the United States, Japan, Germany, India.
The slowdown, rather than a steep fall, is "to be expected and not surprising or alarming in any sense," as the economy is moving along an expected natural path of maturing growth following its unprecedented growth pace over four decades, said Ahmed Saeed, Vice President of the Asian Development Bank.
Global ratings agency Fitch in November maintained its A+ credit rating on China, affirming its stable growth outlook supported by the country's robust external finances and strong macroeconomic performance.

STABLE JOB MARKET OR EMPLOYMENT CRISIS?


Navigating through headwinds, China has delivered robust job gains with a stable unemployment rate instead of massive lay-offs like some naysayers suggested. NBS data showed that 12.79 million new urban jobs were created in the first 11 months this year, exceeding the annual goal of creating more than 11 million new jobs.
As China's economic structure has shifted from an industry-led one to a service-led one, the growing service sector, new business models and multiple support policies are also generating more opportunities
Every percentage point growth of the country's economy can be translated into around 2 million new jobs, said Liu Aihua, spokesperson of the NBS, adding that the job market is kept stable as steady economic growth, structural adjustments and entrepreneurial innovation continue apace.

MADE-IN-CHINA: BOOM OR GLOOM?

In another sign of economic resilience, made-in-China continued to display dynamism in spite of increased downward pressure. NBS data showed that the purchasing managers' index for China's manufacturing sector re-entered the expansion zone by firming up to 50.2 in November from 49.3 in October.
Analysts suggested that China, as the only country that possesses all the industrial categories in the United Nations industrial classification, has the competitive edge of a complete and efficient supply chain.
As the country continued its structural shift to quality-oriented growth, high-tech manufacturing has also been forging ahead, with an output increase of 8.9 percent in November, and investment surging 14.8 percent year on year in the first 11 months of the year, far outpacing the manufacturing sector's average growth of 2.5 percent, official data showed.
En route to high-quality and more sustainable growth, China is yet to dazzle the world as it stands poised to finish building a moderately prosperous society in all respects next year and turn its institutional strength into better governance in the long run

FOREIGN TRADE: FIRMING UP OR FALTERING?

At odds with what some market observers may have surmised, China's foreign trade has remained steady this year, climbing 2.4 percent year on year to 28.5 trillion yuan in the first 11 months with the exports of high-tech, high-quality and high value-added goods expanding at a faster-than-average rate.
The scope and scale of foreign trade kept growing as China opens wider to the world. In the first 11 months, China's trade with the EU and ASEAN expanded, while trade with countries along the Belt and Road reported faster growth than the overall average to account for 29.3 percent of the total trade.
China's commitment to increasing imports is evident in hosting the China International Import Expo and adjusting import tariffs for a range of products starting next year, both allowing other countries and regions to share in China's development.

FOREIGN FIRMS: INVESTING OR RETREATING?

Misgivings of foreign firms withdrawing from China under trade tensions and rising costs are overblown, as the country saw foreign direct investment (FDI) utilized in the first 11 months rising 6 percent year on year, and more than 100 new foreign-invested firms set up every day.
China remains the second-largest recipient of FDI and the largest among developing economies, according to a report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
The country has taken concrete policies and legislative measures to improve its business environment that grants equality of rights, opportunities and rules for domestic and foreign companies alike, ascending 15 places to rank 31st globally this year on the World Bank's ease of doing business list.

CAPITAL MARKET: IMPROVING OR IMPLODING?

Defusing risks and improving the market system, China saw its capital market make a bullish run so far this year, with the Shenzhen Component Index hiking almost 40 percent and the Shanghai Composite Index up nearly 20 percent from closing on the last trading day of 2018.
China's financial opening-up efforts, which include stock connect schemes and scrapping QFII & RQFII quota into the country's capital market, as well as its strong and increasingly international currency, made yuan-denominated assets more attractive to investors worldwide as foreign holdings of Chinese stocks and bonds jumped 53.56 percent and 27.6 percent respectively in the first nine months of this year.
Inclusion to and increased weighting of China's stocks and bonds in global benchmarks like the MSCI, FTSE Russell, S&P Dow Jones and Bloomberg Barclays index are expected to channel more foreign capital into China's financial market, while ongoing reforms including the registration-based IPO system and spin-off listings bode sustainable growth.
 
Hukou relaxation can unleash growth potential
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as far as I understood, the Chinese would soon be allowed to move to cities with less than three million inhabitants (I almost wrote "small" cities, LOL)
 

Franklin

Captain
This is good. The last thing you need is government guarantee.

China’s Government Is Letting a Wave of Bond Defaults Just Happen

Investors have long assumed the state would step in and help many companies, but that’s no longer a safe bet.

China’s had another record year of corporate bond defaults. That’s not a crisis. It’s a plan.

A decade ago, defaults almost never happened, but that wasn’t because companies in China were always healthy. It was a reflection of the tightly controlled financial system, where companies were often linked to the government and bonds were largely bought by state-owned lenders. Authorities have often stepped in to ensure that financially troubled enterprises didn’t crash into default, out of concern over social unrest in the event of job losses or missed payroll payments.

This system imposed little discipline on borrowers. Now global investors are coming into China’s bond market. Though many companies are still state-backed, policymakers are getting more comfortable with defaults. Without them, bond buyers would have little incentive to make a careful assessment of a company’s creditworthiness.

Value of Chinese Local Corporate Bond Defaults

But rising defaults also mean that global investors have to abandon some assumptions about which borrowers are safe. There are some nasty surprises on the long list of companies that have either defaulted or have seen their bond prices plunge. Among them: a would-be Wall Street-style investment bank endorsed by China’s premier and two technology companies connected to top universities. In December, a commodities company called Tewoo Group Corp. delivered the biggest dollar-bond default in two decades by a state-owned enterprise. That event “could prove a turning point,” says Todd Schubert, a managing director for fixed income at Bank of Singapore. It’s getting more dangerous to count on some companies being, in essence, too connected to fail.

Tewoo’s businesses include mining, logistics, and infrastructure. Based in the industrial city of Tianjin, southeast of Beijing, the company defaulted when its debt had to be restructured, with bondholders being offered as little as 37 cents on the dollar. After news of Tewoo’s debt restructuring plan, Moody’s Investors Service warned investors that state-owned enterprises that aren’t “strategically important” to the government would be less likely to get bailouts.

But figuring out which companies still qualify as strategically important won’t be easy. “How many defaults can the system handle will be a question confronting the leadership in 2020,” says Andrew Collier, a managing director at Orient Capital Research. Hundreds of billions of dollars of debt could potentially become problematic. That includes credit extended to property developers and local government financing vehicles, which fund infrastructure projects. Many lack sustainable sources of revenue, and China’s economic slowdown to a pace of around 6% just makes things worse.

“It’s incredibly difficult to do true credit analysis for most borrowers in China,” says Michel Lowy, chief executive officer at Hong Kong-based banking group SC Lowy. “Ultimately it has a lot less to do with the quality of the businesses that are underneath and a lot more to do with who is supporting them, who owns them, and what is the goal of their setup.”

A lesson in how dicey bets on state support can be came in the second half of 2019, when the bonds of two state-backed tech companies tumbled in value (though they have not defaulted). Tsinghua Unigroup Co. is a chipmaker at the forefront of Beijing’s campaign to achieve global dominance in technology. Its finances had deteriorated sharply in the past three years as it borrowed to invest and make acquisitions, but it was linked to Tsinghua University, which counts President Xi Jinping and his predecessor Hu Jintao as alumni. The other company, Peking University Founder Group, a sprawling conglomerate with medical and internet businesses, is tied to Peking University, another elite school. In the past, the companies’ public ownership and connection with the tech sector might have meant their bonds were immune to default concerns.
Tsinghua Unigroup and Peking Founder Hit Record Lows in December

Not so. A government push to separate academic institutions from their business ventures put a cloud over the two companies. The fact that they don’t report to China’s main state-assets overseer, but to the Ministry of Education, might also have left questions in investors’ minds. “Persistent uncertainty over the future ownership of these firms has instilled doubts over their financial position — especially since they are capital-intensive businesses with high profit uncertainty,” says Wei Liang Chang, a macro strategist at DBS Bank Ltd. Of the two businesses, investors are more worried about Founder, but the companies’ bonds tend to tank in tandem. The bonds have recovered some of their earlier losses. A spokeswoman from Unigroup said the firm is confident of meeting all bond-payment obligations. Peking Founder didn't respond to a request for comment.

Perhaps none of the year’s subsequent troubles should have come as a surprise, given how 2019 began with a delayed payment by one of China’s largest private investment companies. China Minsheng Investment Group Corp. was founded in 2014 with the endorsement of Premier Li Keqiang, the country’s No. 2 official. CMIG had run up a lot of debt—about $34 billion as of last year — and had binged on assets, from London property to the solar-energy business to an insurer in Bermuda.

Since the delayed payment on a domestic bond in January, CMIG has been scrambling to sell assets and slashing executive pay. (In April, the company said default provisions had been triggered on two of its dollar bonds.) The company is making every effort to promote an asset, debt, and equity restructuring, it said in an emailed comment in November.

The investment bank became a statistic in the record $21 billion of defaulted bonds from Chinese issuers this year. The vast majority of that has been in the onshore market — bonds denominated in yuan and held mainly by domestic investors — but the rise in defaults in 2019 suggests more trouble could be in store in 2020 for the dollar-based debt that draws more international investors. “The willingness to pay is clearly now in question for large parts of the offshore bond market,” says Owen Gallimore, head of credit strategy at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. —With Molly Dai and Yuling Yang

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