Chinese Economics Thread

supercat

Major
Could you point out the part that bothers you? Because I haven't seen anything that fundamentally alters the big trend that China will continue growing quickly and the US will continue growing relatively slowly. I see nothing enforceable and nothing that provides additional safety or such for the IP of American companies that want to do business in the Chinese market. If you see something, point it out. From what I see, China said that it will buy more US goods over 2 years (so no lump sum and something they can always halt and hold over America's head should things go sour) and none of the fundamental alterations to China's economy or the economic relationship between the two countries that America wanted. I think you're falling for Trump's trick, which is to make a deal that has little to no impact and then brag about it being a success to his voters.

The biggest fundamental and lasting take-way from this is that now, Chinese companies are striving to develop indigenous tech rather than relying on American parts and the average Chinese consumer has become much more politically-conscious when making purchases.

I guess this is the part that bothers Appix:

By incorporating a scheme for the U.S. to monitor, measure and assess China's progress in meeting the agreement's stipulations, it ended up being precisely the kind of "unequal treaty" that Beijing so wanted to avoid in April.

I'm not sure there is really such an enforceable term in the phase one deal. From my understanding, the vast majority of American commentators does not think there is such a scheme. They don't think Trump get anything tangible in the phase one deal from China, except the promise to buy more American farm products.

I agree that China's economy will probably still grow about 3 times faster than America's for the foreseeable future, trade war or not.
 

Appix

Senior Member
Registered Member
Could you point out the part that bothers you? Because I haven't seen anything that fundamentally alters the big trend that China will continue growing quickly and the US will continue growing relatively slowly. I see nothing enforceable and nothing that provides additional safety or such for the IP of American companies that want to do business in the Chinese market. If you see something, point it out. From what I see, China said that it will buy more US goods over 2 years (so no lump sum and something they can always halt and hold over America's head should things go sour) and none of the fundamental alterations to China's economy or the economic relationship between the two countries that America wanted. I think you're falling for Trump's trick, which is to make a deal that has little to no impact and then brag about it being a success to his voters.

The biggest fundamental and lasting take-way from this is that now, Chinese companies are striving to develop indigenous tech rather than relying on American parts and the average Chinese consumer has become much more politically-conscious when making purchases.

Lets first wait if Xi and the team around him will sign it in January before I write what bothers me about this future unequal treaty. I don't want to paint Xi in a very bad daylight until I know for sure they will sign the unequal treaty. The day that they will sign this unequal treaty I will highlight what they have agreed with, why the sell-out bothers me and that they repeat mistakes of the early days of the century of humiliation. They should stand stand their ground and not repeat the mistakes of old by giving significant concessions on a platter to the US embolding the hawks a few notches higher.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Lets first wait if Xi and the team around him will sign it in January before I write what bothers me about this future unequal treaty. I don't want to paint Xi in a very bad daylight until I know for sure they will sign the unequal treaty. The day that they will sign this unequal treaty I will highlight what they have agreed with, why the sell-out bothers me and that they repeat mistakes of the early days of the century of humiliation. They should stand stand their ground and not repeat the mistakes of old by giving significant concessions on a platter to the US embolding the hawks a few notches higher.
That is not answering the question at all. I asked, "what about this phase 1 deal makes you believe that this is an unequal treaty?" You answered, "depends on if he signs it." That answer does not make sense.

To me, this says that you don't know exactly what you don't like except that China isn't shutting America's mouth by stomping on its head in public. As long as Trump still has the breath to open his big mouth and spew rhetorical trash, you don't like the deal. The only way you'd see this as a victory for Xi is if America is immediately humiliated so badly that it can't even say anything. It sounds to me like that's how you judge the outcome of the deal and that's exactly how Trump wants his voters to judge the outcome of the deal.

The goal of the US is to stop China from outgrowing it. The goal of China is to outgrow the US anyway. Which do you think will prevail and what role do you think this "deal" will play in the outcome? The answer to this question should provide the answer for whether or not this is a good deal for China.
 
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AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
The only sources I read claiming China got the bad deal is from Fox News and it seems to stem from comments made by Michael Pillsbury in an interview he did with FOX News. It's spin so it looks like Trump won his zero-sum game against China before the election. I'm not surprised that Japan wants to believe that too.

I would've preferred China destroy Trump so he doesn't get re-elected just because he's a disgusting individual. Who knows what the calculus in Beijing is? Is Trump as President better for China than the Democrats taking office? Just like it was reported that the EU wanted to take a hardline stance to punish China because China didn't make the mistake of supporting the Iraq War, don't be surprised if Democrats and the EU would want to punish China just because Trump took their focus off. Trump is damaging the Western alliance. That only helps China especially when they're doing it to themselves. If Trump's trade war was really hurting China, I would see news stories on what happening in China being affected. The only stories I've seen are some factory managers saying they've been affected but that's not equal to China lost the trade war and the economy is collapsing. We're not like Trump and his followers where it's all this zero-sum game mentality where you see victory as "I completely win while the other side completely loses". Trump had to give farmers billions because of Chinese tariffs. They already lost by their own logic.
 

supercat

Major
I would add that U.S.-China trade war is not the only game being played currently. RCEP probably will be signed next year, with or without India. Xi will meet Abe and Moon on Monday. I'm sure trade will be an important topic. The social and technological changes in China is at such a furies pace, even old Japanese corporation icons such as Panasonic can find it hard to adapt at times, as the story below demonstrates. Trump's trade war won't slow down China's economical, technological, and social progress.

Inspired by China, Panasonic gets back to its innovative roots
Company finds founding philosophy of 'constant change' embodied by Chinese division

TOKYO --
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is expanding its presence in the vast Chinese market through an ethos of "constant change" -- the same approach it taught China 40 years ago, but now it is the Japanese company learning from its former pupil.

The electronics giant is building a new plant to manufacture home appliances in China, the company's first such investment in 16 years, bucking the growing trend among global manufacturers to shift production out of China amid a bitter trade war with the U.S.


Despite slowing growth of China's consumer electronics market, Panasonic believes its in-house China & Northeast Asia Company will be able to achieve strong sales growth in a market with great breadth and depth, which the company expects to be a center of innovation that will rival the U.S. in the future.

On April 1, Tetsuro Homma, a Panasonic director, was in Beijing to attend a ceremony to launch the in-house company. In giving a pep talk to local employees, Homma encouraged them to share their true thoughts. "Let it all out," he said.

Wearing a sweater, Homma came across like the founder of a Chinese tech startup and delivered a 40-minute speech in Chinese to inspire the audience, gesticulating with his hands. His message was clear: The in-house company will to all intents and purposes be a Chinese company, not just an overseas unit of a Japanese corporation. "From this day on, we will pursue Chinese speed, Chinese cost and Chinese style."

Homma was trying to translate the order he had received from Panasonic President and CEO Kazuhiro Tsuga into words that would strike a chord with the employees. In setting up a task force to create the new company in July 2018, Tsuga instructed, "Make another Panasonic in China."

Through his frequent trips to China, Tsuga had become convinced that Panasonic's future growth would depend on its growth in the country.
...

Homma's career-long involvement in the company's Chinese operations has its origins in Matsushita's meeting with Deng, the architect of China's economic reform.

On joining the company, then called Matsushita Electric Industrial, in 1985, Homma was chosen as a trainee to become a China expert under a special training program created by the founder. Homma spent nearly three years struggling with the Chinese language. After studying from morning to night at the company's training center in Osaka for nearly a year, he was transferred to Taiwan, where he spent the first year attending a Chinese language school, and then worked for the firm's local office for another year.

Homma was the leader of the task force to set up the new unit. The team of 40, including Chinese employees, discussed the mission for eight weeks.

When encouraged to open up, the Chinese employees started airing complaints and grievances about misguided and ill-conceived instructions from the headquarters in Japan.

The company's 85 locations in China are all seen as mere outposts of business units in Japan. They have been incapable of keeping up with the changing trends in the Chinese market, missing out on many business opportunities as a result.

Since the beginning of his latest stint in China in April, Homma has been visiting Panasonic's local offices in various parts of the country to hold lunch meetings with middle-ranking Chinese employees aged around 40 to listen to what they have to say.

When he promises them that he will not tell anybody what he hears at the meetings, the Chinese employees often take the opportunity to voice their complaints with relish.

As he has visited about 20 local offices in China, Homma has heard some of the same questions come up many times, such as, "Why do Japanese make new components whenever they develop a new product?"

Panasonic's Japanese engineers design each new product from scratch, whether it is for the Japanese or the Chinese market, developing new parts with their traditional spirit of craftsmanship.

When adopted in China, this approach makes it difficult to secure parts in time. The company also demands cuts in production costs, effectively creating a mission-impossible situation for Chinese employees.

In another episode about why Panasonic needs to do more to tailor its products to the Chinese market, Homma was surprised to find that a new product to be launched in China carried such a low price tag. When he asked the reason why it could be sold so cheaply, a Chinese engineer said one feature that was popular in Japan had been removed. When Homma asked the engineer whether that was the right move to make, the reply was that the feature had no appeal to Chinese consumers.

The Chinese engineer also said he had been silent on what he really thought out of consideration and respect for Japanese engineers, as well as concern about possible effects on his position within the company. "Since you have urged us to let out our thoughts, I have taken the plunge," he told Homma.

Homma was stunned by what the engineer told him, but was also pleased, as he thought he was seeing a sign of change for the better.

Homma has opened an account on Weibo, China's leading microblogging site, and frequently posts about his business experiences in the country.

On holidays, he often visits historical sites with employees to show his commitment to learning about Chinese culture. All these efforts are aimed at changing the mindset of Chinese employees who see their workplaces as mere outposts of business units in Japan.

To be continued...
 

supercat

Major
...continued from above:

More than four decades since Matsushita and Deng talked about China's economic future, Homma says he now feels he may have been destined to lead the new unit in China since that day.

Betting on China's long-term growth, the Osaka-based company will spend some 4.5 billion yen ($41 million) to build the plant in Jiaxing, Zhejiang province, and is scheduled to begin production in 2021. The company forecasts annual sales of 2 billion yuan ($280 million) from the plant once it begins full-scale production.

Panasonic has been expanding its business in China since it established a joint venture company to produce cathode-ray tubes in 1987. Shipments by Panasonic total 2 trillion yen in value, the largest among Japanese companies.

But Panasonic has failed to grow in China over the past decade. "The reason is simple. Instructions from Japan have been odd," said Wu Liang, managing director of Panasonic Home Appliances (China).

Wu, 57, is one Chinese employee whose life has changed as a result of the reform and door-opening policies introduced by Deng, which won support from Matsushita.

Born in Hangzhou, Zhejiang province, where Panasonic Home Appliances is headquartered, Wu had worked as a metal processor at a local state-run refrigerator maker until the age of 25 after graduating from high school. Running around Hangzhou's West Lake, designated as a UNESCO World Heritage Site, Wu became a marathon runner with a personal best time of just over 2 hours and 29 minutes. He ran in the Beijing Marathon in 1985 and 1986, when Japanese marathoners performed strongly.

A turning point in Wu's life came in 1987, when mulled leaving the factory and changing career.

Amid social changes taking place under the reform and door-opening policies, he enrolled in a Japanese-language school in Japan. Managing on a monthly income of 60,000 yen from delivering newspapers, he became interested in local administration and enrolled in Tokai University.

Wu worked at a number of manufacturing companies after graduation and was head-hunted in 2002 by Matsushita Electric Industrial, the Chinese unit of Panasonic at the time. Assigned to marketing home appliances, he helped Panasonic capture the biggest share of the market for warm-water bidet toilet seats, which were in soaring demand because of Chinese tourists' "explosive" shopping sprees in Japan.

Credited for his contribution, Wu was promoted in 2014 to a position in which he effectively took charge of home appliances.

"There was a mood of withdrawal from China at Panasonic at that time," said Wu. While online sales were increasing sharply in China, Panasonic was reluctant to make tie-ups with electronic commerce sites for fear of price-cutting competition.

But Wu promoted Panasonic's alliances with major local e-commerce sites Tmall and JD.com to not only supply products but also carry out product development and sales campaigns. Consequently, Panasonic sprang back to life in the Chinese market.

"You cannot move forward if you shut your eyes to changes," Wu said.

Wu describes himself as not the kind of person to tread carefully. For example, when he visited Japan in December 2016 for a meeting of Panasonic directors including Tsuga, they discussed a product which Wu dismissed as unnecessary in China. His outspoken verdict stunned other participants.

With confidence gained from successfully forging his own path in life, he does not hesitate to speak his mind.

In October, Wu opened a "Panasonic Center" showroom to display IoT home appliances in Hangzhou. He had found a vacant plot of land a prime location near the city's West Lake, a popular tourist spot, and stressed to Homma that the place presented a rare opportunity. The director was convinced, and he gave Wu the nod to open the center there.

Wu took about 100 days to open the showroom, less than a quarter of time that would be needed in Japan. The center has already been visited by 40,000 people.

"We must continue to change," Wu said, suggesting that he will accelerate the pace of reforms.


"The time taken to develop new products and services has been cut to half a year to a year from one-to- two years in the past," said He Lingjun, a young female employee at Panasonic Home Appliances. "But Chinese companies develop them in a few months."

Lingjun is currently developing new services using connected toilets and connected bathroom mirrors that collect uric acid level and body fat data which can then be used to select and home-deliver foodstuffs tailored to individual needs. The services are planned to be launched in 2020.

Lingjun became interested in Japan after watching a TV program about "yamato nadeshiko," a Japanese term for an idealized Japanese woman, and studied the Japanese language at university. She changed her career three years ago, moving from a Japanese food maker to Panasonic, which was recruiting new workers.

"Language and skills are the same thing. As IoT connects different industries, I can make use of my experience at the food company at Panasonic," she said.

Lingjun doesn't hesitate to voice her opinions with experts such as information technology engineers and university professors, exemplifying women's highly active role in the workplace in China's new age.

Whereas Panasonic once imparted knowledge about innovation in China, today the roles are reversed. It is China that enables the continued implementation of Matsushita's vision in a company that developed a tendency for risk aversion.

In June, two months after assuming his current post, Homma committed Panasonic to a project to build a large-scale new residential area for the aged in Jiangsu Province, eastern China. He refers to the new challenge whenever he visits Panasonic plants, and says, "Each day is a new day. Let's change ourselves without fear of the social and technological changes taking place at a furious speed."

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Appix

Senior Member
Registered Member
The concessions that have been made by the Xi administration in this phase one trade deal summoned one by one in this link. Xi may go in the history books as one of the greatest failures since 1949. The current administration needs to go before they sell out the whole of China to the US and her lackeys. They buckle under foreign agression instead of keeping their ground. Sell-outs!

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manqiangrexue

Brigadier
The concessions that have been made by the Xi administration in this phase one trade deal summoned one by one in this link. Xi may go in the history books as one of the greatest failures since 1949. The current administration needs to go before they sell out the whole of China to the US and her lackeys. They buckle under foreign agression instead of keeping their ground. Sell-outs!

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So posting vague articles isn't going to support your case. I asked which specific part you found difficult to swallow and you could not answer. I told you that China basically committed to nothing except to purchase up to $200B in imports from the US throughout 2 years and somehow, I don't know how the Chinese team got this, but according to the article you posted, the US will roll back tariffs but China will NOT roll back any tariffs it had imposed during the trade war. Everything else that is described as a victory for the US is embarrassingly vague and purposely so because the details likely don't support the conclusion. It's to the point where what's said has no meaning that's applicable to law or economics. Even the article you posted here says in the last paragraph that phase 1 fails to truly address the core grievances that the US had with China.

Your reaction is typically North Korean rather than Chinese, which is to try to shout at your opponent as loudly as you can rather than defeating him with tact. So my conclusion remains the same, as cited from my last post:
"To me, this says that you don't know exactly what you don't like except that China isn't shutting America's mouth by stomping on its head in public. As long as Trump still has the breath to open his big mouth and spew rhetorical trash, you don't like the deal. The only way you'd see this as a victory for Xi is if America is immediately humiliated so badly that it can't even say anything. It sounds to me like that's how you judge the outcome of the deal and that's exactly how Trump wants his voters to judge the outcome of the deal."

I understand that this is sufficient to fool most of Trump's voters into re-electing him and that's what I want to see but it'd be a shame if certain Chinese people were fooled into attacking and insulting their own leaders as well.
 
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Saturday at 6:16 PM
Glob. Times sounding desperate, even quoting
Matthew 22:21
!!
Banning Huawei will cost US opportunity in 5G era
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the context is "The final version of the defense bill contains new restrictions meant to prevent the administration from taking Huawei off a Commerce Department list that bans American firms from working with the company without specific exemptions." (
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)
and Glob. Times into the Bible again, now with
What do China's tariff cuts mean to US economy?
just follow the link
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to see
 
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