Chinese Aviation Industry

KFX said:

The issue with helping Comac on the C919 and Avic with the MA700 is that technology and skills will support China's military programmes. Parker Aerospace, to name just one supplier, is providing the FBW for the MA700. This kit is essential for military aircraft, namely the H-20.

China also doesn't play by the rules. By rights, the 737 Max should be flying in China, but Beijing is holding up a relaunch for political reasons. They see it as bargaining chip for some other concession, such as western certification for the (probably uncertifiable) C919.

It's difficult to see an outright ban on aerospace technology exports to China, but should China keep ramping up the pressure on Taiwan, sanctioning China's aerospace industry is a good place to start. Would also be interesting to see the effect of Boeing and Airbus ceasing to provide customer support for China's airliner fleet. The country's airline sector would grind to a halt overnight.

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This guy reads too much Straits Times and Channel News Asia

If what he writes happened, the Third World will no longer trust Boeing or Airbus. And China can travel via high speed rail until it builds up its own airline industry. Lol. And the Third World will sign up to Chinese planes because of customer trust.

What's with some of these highly brainwashed Singapore and Hong Kong folk le sigh

Crang said:

This guy reads too much Straits Times and Channel News

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Crang said:

This guy reads too much Straits Times and Channel News Asia

If what he writes happened, the Third World will no longer trust Boeing or Airbus. And China can travel via high speed rail until it builds up its own airline industry. Lol. And the Third World will sign up to Chinese planes because of customer trust.

What's with some of these highly brainwashed Singapore and Hong Kong folk le sigh

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1) I disagree with your assertion that China is a "third world" country. Also, we're here to discuss aerospace matters, not share political views.
2) Given the enormous amount of western content on Chinese civilian aircraft, any embargo on supporting China's aerospace sector would inevitably affect sales to the "third world".

KFX said:

1) I disagree with your assertion that China is a "third world" country. Also, we're here to discuss aerospace matters, not share political views.
2) Given the enormous amount of western content on Chinese civilian aircraft, any embargo on supporting China's aerospace sector would inevitably affect sales to the "third world".

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Aerospace industry is inevitably political. Distrust in Boeing or Airbus would lead to more sales of Embraer and later COMAC. If Boeing or Airbus cancels maintenance and technical support say in Iran or Cuba, you can be sure countries around the world will start hopping to Embraer. And then COMAC.

KFX said:

The issue with helping Comac on the C919 and Avic with the MA700 is that technology and skills will support China's military programmes.

China also doesn't play by the rules.

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You said not to be political but your very first sentence.......

You probably think you weren't being political because of your Western universalist perspective but sorry your Western perspective may appear universal to you but it is political at the end of the day.

KFX said:

The issue with helping Comac on the C919 and Avic with the MA700 is that technology and skills will support China's military programmes. Parker Aerospace, to name just one supplier, is providing the FBW for the MA700. This kit is essential for military aircraft, namely the H-20.

China also doesn't play by the rules. By rights, the 737 Max should be flying in China, but Beijing is holding up a relaunch for political reasons. They see it as bargaining chip for some other concession, such as western certification for the (probably uncertifiable) C919.

It's difficult to see an outright ban on aerospace technology exports to China, but should China keep ramping up the pressure on Taiwan, sanctioning China's aerospace industry is a good place to start. Would also be interesting to see the effect of Boeing and Airbus ceasing to provide customer support for China's airliner fleet. The country's airline sector would grind to a halt overnight.

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Wait I’m curious, do you think US plays by the rules and China does not?

I don’t want to get political but this statement really shows your biases in these situations and that’s important.

gadgetcool5 said:

I feel like China is getting strung along by Western suppliers. If the US announced complete sanctions against COMAC, China would be forced to spend all its resources into a fully domestic airline supply chain, which would take a long time, but at least they would be focused on it, and eventually become sanctions-proof sooner. That would have advantages. So the US doesn't want to completely sanction COMAC.

On the other hand, the US doesn't want the C919 to succeed either. So what they do is promise to deliver supplies, but drag their feet as much as possible so that the C919 is as late as possible and can never achieve volume production. Probably by 2027 only a handful will be in service. That is not very useful to China as it does not allow China to spend meaningfully less on Boeing or Airbus.

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I am not so sure that China is at the mercy of western supplier Most of the avionic, AC, landing gear etc are built by joint venture in China using Chinese factory and worker. It has been almost a decade since they started it. As the year goes by the domestic content of the venture increase. Except one or two parts most are probably source from domestic supplier.
the engine is about to be certified soon. Of course C919 will be delayed they have to rework all the software etc

The Aviadvigatel PD-14 is the first turbofan jet engine created in modern Russia. There are high hopes for the product as it prepares to hit the skies with the Irkut MC-21 this decade. However, Why Russia Created The PD-14 Engine For MC-21?

KFX said:

The issue with helping Comac on the C919 and Avic with the MA700 is that technology and skills will support China's military programmes. Parker Aerospace, to name just one supplier, is providing the FBW for the MA700. This kit is essential for military aircraft, namely the H-20.

China also doesn't play by the rules. By rights, the 737 Max should be flying in China, but Beijing is holding up a relaunch for political reasons. They see it as bargaining chip for some other concession, such as western certification for the (probably uncertifiable) C919.

It's difficult to see an outright ban on aerospace technology exports to China, but should China keep ramping up the pressure on Taiwan, sanctioning China's aerospace industry is a good place to start. Would also be interesting to see the effect of Boeing and Airbus ceasing to provide customer support for China's airliner fleet. The country's airline sector would grind to a halt overnight.

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H20 is not even to come yet your already know which part is belong to western company? Also Im curious about "right" of 737max? What right? "White privilege" right? Because it white ppl product so it have right to flights despite unsafe and killed hundred ppl? And you talk about Boeing stop supply part to China. A "private company" drive by money ignore soon will be largest market. Because? Yeah because politics that right. And if Boeing and Airbus want to do that then i say do it, do it now. See how it play. A country which already have very good and capable infrastructure like high speed rail, high speed road and short medium aircraft or those greedy Western company come to knee first?

KFX said:

The issue with helping Comac on the C919 and Avic with the MA700 is that technology and skills will support China's military programmes. Parker Aerospace, to name just one supplier, is providing the FBW for the MA700. This kit is essential for military aircraft, namely the H-20.

China also doesn't play by the rules. By rights, the 737 Max should be flying in China, but Beijing is holding up a relaunch for political reasons. They see it as bargaining chip for some other concession, such as western certification for the (probably uncertifiable) C919.

It's difficult to see an outright ban on aerospace technology exports to China, but should China keep ramping up the pressure on Taiwan, sanctioning China's aerospace industry is a good place to start. Would also be interesting to see the effect of Boeing and Airbus ceasing to provide customer support for China's airliner fleet. The country's airline sector would grind to a halt overnight.

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Lol ok. The reason they chose Parker Aerospace for FBW is because of designing to meet FAA certification for export purposes. US companies know how to get into compliance quickly and indeed are often pre-certified (see Boeing 737 MAX FAA inspections or lack thereof). It is not because Parker Aerospace is the sole supplier of FBW systems or even a good supplier of FBW systems.

Unless, of course, you believe that the Y-20 which predates the MA700 either uses an imported FBW system from "someone" or uses a mechanical controlled system which is nonsensical since mechanical is actually harder than FBW.

Why all the vitriol? It's a statement of fact that China's commercial aerospace sector is highly reliant on the West. Sure, they're working to develop technology locally, and joint ventures are a key part of this, but China still has a long way to go.

Irrespective of where one stands politically, China's reliance on western aerospace/airliners is a weak point. Similarly, they still need Russian engines on the military side. This is why, justifiably, they are trying to gain competence in all these technologies - either through joint ventures, espionage, or organic development.

Objectively speaking, western aerospace firms - and western governments - have to seriously question the political and economic ramifications of supporting China's aerospace sector. Sure, there is money to be made with Chinese programmes, but will this be the case long term? Most definitely not.

I'd add that should the CCP start a conflict over Taiwan, Western support for Chinese aerospace programmes and airlines would vanish overnight. Lack of spares might just force Xi Jinping to find some other conveyance than his Air China 747-8I.

As for the 737 Max, every major jurisdiction has re-certified the aircraft. Boeing majorly screwed up that programme, but fixed it, and FAA/EASA have cleared it for service, as have Asia-Pacific countries like India, Singapore, and Thailand. Why is CAAC holding out? Politics.

KFX said:

Why all the vitriol? It's a statement of fact that China's commercial aerospace sector is highly reliant on the West. Sure, they're working to develop technology locally, and joint ventures are a key part of this, but China still has a long way to go.

Irrespective of where one stands politically, China's reliance on western aerospace/airliners is a weak point. Similarly, they still need Russian engines on the military side. This is why, justifiably, they are trying to gain competence in all these technologies - either through joint ventures, espionage, or organic development.

Objectively speaking, western aerospace firms - and western governments - have to seriously question the political and economic ramifications of supporting China's aerospace sector. Sure, there is money to be made with Chinese programmes, but will this be the case long term? Most definitely not.

I'd add that should the CCP start a conflict over Taiwan, Western support for Chinese aerospace programmes and airlines would vanish overnight. Lack of spares might just force Xi Jinping to find some other conveyance than his Air China 747-8I.

As for the 737 Max, every major jurisdiction has re-certified the aircraft. Boeing majorly screwed up that programme, but fixed it, and FAA/EASA have cleared it for service, as have Asia-Pacific countries like India, Singapore, and Thailand. Why is CAAC holding out? Politics.

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China's aerospace is completely localized.
The United States will never ban the sale of Boeing passenger planes.

KFX said:

Why all the vitriol? It's a statement of fact that China's commercial aerospace sector is highly reliant on the West. Sure, they're working to develop technology locally, and joint ventures are a key part of this, but China still has a long way to go.

Irrespective of where one stands politically, China's reliance on western aerospace/airliners is a weak point. Similarly, they still need Russian engines on the military side. This is why, justifiably, they are trying to gain competence in all these technologies - either through joint ventures, espionage, or organic development.

Objectively speaking, western aerospace firms - and western governments - have to seriously question the political and economic ramifications of supporting China's aerospace sector. Sure, there is money to be made with Chinese programmes, but will this be the case long term? Most definitely not.

I'd add that should the CCP start a conflict over Taiwan, Western support for Chinese aerospace programmes and airlines would vanish overnight. Lack of spares might just force Xi Jinping to find some other conveyance than his Air China 747-8I.

As for the 737 Max, every major jurisdiction has re-certified the aircraft. Boeing majorly screwed up that programme, but fixed it, and FAA/EASA have cleared it for service, as have Asia-Pacific countries like India, Singapore, and Thailand. Why is CAAC holding out? Politics.

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I think the problem with your argument is the basis in which you’ve portrayed COMAC’s “reliance”. The basis of “reliance” here is not technological. COMAC went with a foreign supplier strategy for two reasons. The first was to try to pick up any production efficiencies foreign firms might have that domestic firms have yet to learn without having to go through their own growing pains. The second was to try to find ways to expedite regulatory approval in western countries. Cutting off COMAC from foreign suppliers today (which actually doesn’t make much sense in practical terms because all the foreign suppliers are producing those parts domestically, which means if there was a ban the factories would keep running even if the foreign entities couldn’t formally “supply” COMAC) won’t stop COMAC from being able to make planes. Engines excepted, all it might do is make their production potentially less efficient, and their regulatory approval in the US and EU potentially trickier. Neither of these things are good for COMAC but they don’t stop COMAC from making planes either. Even with the engines being able to find non western substitute at this point is only a matter of time.

This btw also extends to the idea that you could erase Chinese commercial aerospace overnight with a western embargo and a support ban for western bought commercial airplanes. If you forced Airbus and Boeing to pull support today what would happen very quickly is Chinese airliners would switch to domestic parts providers who could reproduce all the components that need maintenance. Remember, there are Chinese firms who are also Airbus and Boeing suppliers. The components that Chinese firms don’t currently supply to Boeing or Airbus they could reproduced domestically. Most of the parts that require maintenance are run of the mill parts that don’t require secret sauce to make functional alternatives for, or involve technical capabilities that China has but haven’t successfully commercialized. These substitute components may not be as reliable and doing things this way would probably be less efficient, but it wouldn’t be crippling the way you’ve made it out to be either. A really great example of what this looks like in practice is to observe how long Iran has maintained their fleet of American fighters without American support, and China is both far more industrially capable and richer than Iran.

All this discussion of total commercial aerospace embargo is political fantasy talk though. Such an embargo would be an own goal that could cost billions of dollars and countless high paying jobs for the US and EU aerospace sectors, some of their most productive high value industries, and even if we assumed that would be a worthwhile cost for a punitive action on Taiwan, China could retaliate by simply stopping shipment of exports to the US and EU (which of course would also cost China billions upon billions and countless jobs). These kinds of dramatic political sideswipes don’t make sense for either side.