Chinese Aviation Industry

gelgoog said:

Someone needs to cleanup house at COMAC. The 919 should have entered service already. I know delays on any new plane are to be expected, but this is too much. China needs to cut US semiconductor and airplane imports.

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I think there's a possibility of railroading the launch to wait for Chinese indigenous systems to be developed for the aircraft. This will prevent complete sanctioning of the aircraft like the Xian MA700.

If the aircraft does not compete with Boeing, there is less of an reason to impose sanctions. It also serves the US in a marketing sense, if the C919 takes this long to develop it must be untrustworthy/a lame duck.

COMAC obviously thought/thinks that the US companies that are subcontractors would push for the aircraft and their profits. But NatSec concerns may be trumping this.

Whichever money those subcontractors are getting, it will be less than what Boeing gets. Plus in the long run China will replace those subcontractors just like what happened with high-speed rail.

don't forget, China should also be wary of anglo saboteurs trying to mess with any flights of COMAC; it'd be like that scheme of LeChiffre from Casino Royale

Well I think that Type 075s with Ka52s on them would be quite a sight

Does anyone think there is any significance to the announcement CATIC/GAL (Abu Dhabi Emirates company) establishing distribution warehouse in Abu Dhabi?
Is this civil, or military? Is this perhaps just a consequence of the increasing number of Chinese drones operating in Middle East/Africa?

gelgoog said:

The 919 should have entered service already.

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This is hi-tech stuff. Its not something that you can rush out the door. And besides, it carries people. There is a lot in stake here, specially human, but also economically and politically. The chinese government doesnt want to risk C919 to crash with people on board.

Also, foreign suppliers could be dragging their feet. China still depends on them.

DarkStar said:

China should also be wary of anglo saboteurs trying to mess with any flights of COMAC

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Calm down.

I feel like China is getting strung along by Western suppliers. If the US announced complete sanctions against COMAC, China would be forced to spend all its resources into a fully domestic airline supply chain, which would take a long time, but at least they would be focused on it, and eventually become sanctions-proof sooner. That would have advantages. So the US doesn't want to completely sanction COMAC.

On the other hand, the US doesn't want the C919 to succeed either. So what they do is promise to deliver supplies, but drag their feet as much as possible so that the C919 is as late as possible and can never achieve volume production. Probably by 2027 only a handful will be in service. That is not very useful to China as it does not allow China to spend meaningfully less on Boeing or Airbus.

gadgetcool5 said:

I feel like China is getting strung along by Western suppliers. If the US announced complete sanctions against COMAC, China would be forced to spend all its resources into a fully domestic airline supply chain, which would take a long time, but at least they would be focused on it, and eventually become sanctions-proof sooner. That would have advantages. So the US doesn't want to completely sanction COMAC.

On the other hand, the US doesn't want the C919 to succeed either. So what they do is promise to deliver supplies, but drag their feet as much as possible so that the C919 is as late as possible and can never achieve volume production. Probably by 2027 only a handful will be in service. That is not very useful to China as it does not allow China to spend meaningfully less on Boeing or Airbus.

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@gadgetcool5 bro the bold part, air travel will resume its pre pandemic level by 2024, so they had the time to replace all foreign equipment. If the US want to sabotaged COMAC then again its self defeating cause the Chinese will retaliate by banning Boeing and Airbus will enjoy the bounty.

gadgetcool5 said:

I feel like China is getting strung along by Western suppliers. If the US announced complete sanctions against COMAC, China would be forced to spend all its resources into a fully domestic airline supply chain, which would take a long time, but at least they would be focused on it, and eventually become sanctions-proof sooner. That would have advantages. So the US doesn't want to completely sanction COMAC.

On the other hand, the US doesn't want the C919 to succeed either. So what they do is promise to deliver supplies, but drag their feet as much as possible so that the C919 is as late as possible and can never achieve volume production. Probably by 2027 only a handful will be in service. That is not very useful to China as it does not allow China to spend meaningfully less on Boeing or Airbus.

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I am curious as to how it would all work if they do want to go the full sanction.
Given that US is pushing for China to purchase more from Boeing, it'll mean the engine suppliers would be supplying those gear (or more advanced given competition with Airbus) for use within China anyway. For their offer to be viable, there would have to be a string of logistics and overhaul facilities set up within China too given the scale of the market. Letting them use it on the 737max/787 but not C919 would kind of piss the other manufacturers off by slicing off their market access, especially if alternative European, or Chinese options were available. Their lobbying, and Chinese pressure will probably have an effect no?
My opinion is that China is best served to have Airbus, Boeing and COMAC all get a market share in China, so as to foster COMAC's development and integration with existing Western suppliers, much like the Tesla model with the EVs and Apple with the smart phones. It'll foster proper competition within the sector and would be far more effective way of sanction proofing the budding industry.
Success wouldn't be defined as whether C919 succeed or not, but the continued development of the domestic supply chain that continue to catch up with the top in class and foster development of C919 successors.

The issue with helping Comac on the C919 and Avic with the MA700 is that technology and skills will support China's military programmes. Parker Aerospace, to name just one supplier, is providing the FBW for the MA700. This kit is essential for military aircraft, namely the H-20.

China also doesn't play by the rules. By rights, the 737 Max should be flying in China, but Beijing is holding up a relaunch for political reasons. They see it as bargaining chip for some other concession, such as western certification for the (probably uncertifiable) C919.

It's difficult to see an outright ban on aerospace technology exports to China, but should China keep ramping up the pressure on Taiwan, sanctioning China's aerospace industry is a good place to start. Would also be interesting to see the effect of Boeing and Airbus ceasing to provide customer support for China's airliner fleet. The country's airline sector would grind to a halt overnight.