Yeppp ... I think a better explanation can not be given.
Nobody in his right mind would put money into the AN-70 project, which Russia basically does not really want.
My impression was that the reason the deal for 38 IL-76/78 fell through was that the Russians wanted to move production from Tashkent (that is in Uzbekistan) to Ulyanovsk, and the Chinese neither wanted to wait for this or to co-finance it.
if the order had gone through who would get the $$$ for them? Uzbekistan or Russia? how and why did Russia want to shift the production, for 38 aircraft I would have thought they would bend over backwards to get such a large order from China?
20+ years? That's absolutely brutal. Can PLAAF have those planes repaired locally? Russian customer service is known to be the worst in the industry.
currently they have to use IL76 converts for AWACS, with Y-20 they can make as many AWACS as they need
I foresee that when Y-20 is available, they would still use IL-76 as platform for AWACS. Using IL-76 as AWACS is already a proven concept and well tested, whereas Y-20 AWACS would require redesign and years of additional test flights (on top of Y-20 test flights).