China's strategy in Korean peninsula

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
Short of an invasion of North Korea the Chinese can not do much. The idea that a phone call from Beijing would stop North Korea from doing what it is doing for some 20 years is an illusion. Therefore claiming something esoteric like a "blood alliance" just helps to cover the fact that China is not able to do anything.

Chinese soldiers also died in Vietnam and Laos helping them against the French and the USA but there's no mention of a blood alliance there.

I don't think that claiming ever happened in the first place.

The question is not whether China is able to do anything, but rather "Does China want to do anything suggested by SK and US". The answer is certainly a big NO.

On the other hand, China did do EVRYthing she could when she made her decision. What you mentioned Vietnam and Laos, and Korea in 1950s were actually good examples to support that.

However our opposite conclusions from the same evidences are made because we have totally opposite purposes and objectives. Putting it straight, "invasion of NK, sanction of NK etc. are all what SK and US want to do, not China", why would China do that? And how could not wanting to do something become not able to do anything?
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
One thing I want to remind is that this thread is about China's strategy on the peninsula, therefor discussion should be from Chinese strategic perspective that serves Chinese interest, NOT interests of China's rivalries on the peninsula. Otherwise, it would become a thread of "how to trick China to serve my interest on the peninsula". Although that would be natural from the opposite perspective but it is away from the purpose of this thread and deserve a separate thread.:rolleyes:
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
If you see some of the South Korean pundits on American TV news, it's quite obviously they're angry at China for hitting South Korea's economy over THAAD. And of course they're pushing for the US to punish China for them. So it's not unbelievable someone in South Korea would lie to get the US angry at such statements.
 
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I am very disappointed in China. Our foolish past leaders have allowed them to make hundreds of billions of dollars a year in trade, yet...

...they do NOTHING for us with North Korea, just talk. We will no longer allow this to continue. China could easily solve this problem!
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delft

Brigadier
I noticed as it's Breaking News at gazeta.ru right now (
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I am very disappointed in China. Our foolish past leaders have allowed them to make hundreds of billions of dollars a year in trade, yet...

...they do NOTHING for us with North Korea, just talk. We will no longer allow this to continue. China could easily solve this problem!
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He will have to solve the problem himself, without militarily attacking NK and sanctions don't work.
 

Orthan

Senior Member
sanctions don't work.

sanctions dont work against NK, but they will work against china. china has a almost 350 billion annual trade surplus with the US. If the US starts to close the markets (and it seems that trump´s patience with china is running out), china could be in a world of hurt. Already suffering from a mountain of bad debt, im not completly certain what would happen then.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
sanctions dont work against NK, but they will work against china. china has a almost 350 billion annual trade surplus with the US. If the US starts to close the markets (and it seems that trump´s patience with china is running out), china could be in a world of hurt. Already suffering from a mountain of bad debt, im not completly certain what would happen then.

Trade is 2 way street . If US impose sanction on China She just shoot themselves in the foot. Inflation will shoot sky high. I can imagine barren shelves on Walmart, Target, Best buy,people will go out to the street. Easier said than done
READ this article 1 year without made in China and that was 10 years ago."life without made in China"
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Ms. BONGIORNI: What doing this really brought home to me was that we are so closely connected to the rest of the world for what we want and need. And as you know from reading the book, sometimes there's ambivalence about that, but there's also big part in me that likes that and wants to embrace our connections with the rest of the world. So I found it very satisfying, I guess, to find out how connected I am to this big, fuzzy concept to the global economy.

This what your house look like without made in China
 
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delft

Brigadier
sanctions dont work against NK, but they will work against china. china has a almost 350 billion annual trade surplus with the US. If the US starts to close the markets (and it seems that trump´s patience with china is running out), china could be in a world of hurt. Already suffering from a mountain of bad debt, im not completly certain what would happen then.
The mountain of bad debt of China is quite moderate and the financial reserves in dollars and gold aren't moderate at all. The annual trade surplus is balanced to some, ever smaller, extend by the import of parts from US, Japan and SK. A trade war would damage these countries directly considerably and further measures by China are also possible. The problems for China will be of much less weight than the importance of removing US power over SK.
 
now I read
Opinion: Why China is not to blame for the DPRK deadlock 2017-07-30 17:53 GMT+8
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US President Donald Trump slammed China for not helping with the DPRK situation in a pair of tweets on Saturday, despite the fact that it is the United States, not China, that holds the key to breaking the deadlock.

"I am very disappointed in China," Trump tweeted after the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) tested two Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) in less than four weeks, accusing China of doing "NOTHING" but "talk" with the DPRK.

However, China has made it clear that the root cause of the DPRK nuclear crisis is Pyongyang's sense of insecurity against Washington and the latter's failure to address its "legitimate security concerns".

While Washington puts its faith in sanctions and military coercion, which have been counterproductive, Beijing is committed to achieving the goal of denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula through peaceful negotiations and has proposed "double suspension" and "dual track" approaches to defuse the looming crisis.

'China responsibility theory' must stop

Responding to calls from the US and Japan for China to take more responsibility and exert more influence on the DPRK, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said on July 11 that the core of the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue is the conflict between the DPRK and the US, adding that the nature of the issue is security.

China is neither the focus of the issue nor is it escalating tensions, so the country does not hold the key to solving the issue, Geng stated.

Those who exaggerate and highlight China's responsibility either lack a full and clear understanding of the issue or have ulterior motives, he said at a daily press briefing. "The 'China responsibility theory' on the peninsula nuclear issue can stop."

During a United Nations Security Council ministerial level meeting in late April, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stressed that China is not a focal point of the problem on the peninsula.

"The key to solving the nuclear issue on the peninsula does not lie in the hands of the Chinese side," Wang said.

Fu Ying, the chairperson of the Foreign Affairs Committee of China's National People's Congress (NPC), explained the DPRK's deep-rooted sense of insecurity in a strategy paper written for the John L. Thornton China Center earlier this year.

The DPRK, which relied on its "main backer" – the Soviet Union during the Cold War, "felt extremely insecure" with the decline and disintegration of the USSR in the early 1990s, she said, adding that the rapid economic growth in the Republic of Korea (ROK) also added to DPRK's anxieties.

According to the veteran diplomat, Pyongyang is determined to possess nuclear weapons to ensure its security after failed negotiations with successive US administrations.

Fu also stressed it is the US that holds the key to the issue because the DPRK sees the US as a threat to its security.

China has been working hard to play its role both as a mediator and a party to UN sanctions, but it does not have the leverage to force either the US or the DPRK to address each other's concerns, she said.

Efforts and proposals by China

Trump claimed that China has done nothing on the DPRK issue, but that fact is that Beijing has been committed to the goal of denuclearization of the peninsula and has made every effort to ease tensions.

"China has over the years made unremitting efforts and played a unique role in promoting a negotiated solution of the issue," the Chinese foreign minister said at the UN Security Council meeting, adding that, "it was through China's efforts and the support of all parties that the Three-Party Talks on the peninsula nuclear issue was expanded to the Six-Party Talks."

As tensions and hostile rhetoric escalated between Pyongyang and Washington this year, China has put forward "double suspension" and "dual track" proposals to bring relevant parties back to the negotiating table.

"As a first step, the DPRK may suspend its nuclear and missile activities in exchange for the suspension of large-scale US-ROK military exercises," Wang told a press conference of the annual NPC session in March.

"This will help the parties to break out of the security dilemma and return to the negotiating table," Wang said.

"We may follow the dual-track approach of denuclearizing the peninsula on the one hand and establishing a peace mechanism on the other," he added.

Meanwhile, China has repeatedly urged for restraint on the issue.

Who is responsible for escalated tension?

Unfortunately, the US insists on using sanctions and military pressure to coerce the DPRK into abandoning its nuclear and ICBM programs, leading to more and more test launches by Pyongyang instead.

The US is deploying a powerful Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system in the ROK, a controversial move Washington claims is aimed to protect Seoul from Pyongyang's threat but is strongly condemned by China and Russia.

In a commentary published by China Daily last year, Guo Xinning, vice president of the College of Defense Studies at China's PLA National Defense University, said the deployment of THAAD in South Korea would tip the "already fragile" strategic balance on the Korean Peninsula more in favor of the south and further intensifies the DPRK's sense of insecurity, resulting in an accelerated advancement of its nuclear weapon program.

His words are becoming a reality. The DPRK has already fired 18 missiles in 12 tests since February.

But the US has not learned its lesson. Instead, it is deploying more THAAD launchers in South Korea and sending more warplanes to the peninsula. On Sunday, two US Air Force B-1B bombers conducted a joint exercise with two Japanese fighter jets off the peninsula.

Besides, Trump suggested in his tweets that the US should adopt a tougher stance on trade relations with China since he believes Beijing has not helped with the DPRK issue.

As the China-US Comprehensive Economic Dialogue progresses well and American beef returns to the Chinese market in July, Trump should ask himself what went wrong with his DPRK approach rather than shifting the blame to China and using the DPRK as a bargaining chip in trade talks between the world's two largest economies.
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
I noticed as it's Breaking News at gazeta.ru right now (
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Trump tweeted (
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I am very disappointed in China. Our foolish past leaders have allowed them to make hundreds of billions of dollars a year in trade, yet...

...they do NOTHING for us with North Korea, just talk. We will no longer allow this to continue. China could easily solve this problem!
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Trump forgot one thing, China did not get the dollars for free, China sent equivalent goods to US. The trade is settled by itself. China don't own US any favor in terms of NK.

By Trump's logic, president Xi would say "China allowed US to live a luxury life on Chinese hard work, a life they would otherwise not able to afford without "cheap" Chinese export, yet ... they (US) do EVERYTHING to mess around with us in our neighbourhood."
 
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