China's strategy in Korean peninsula

I'm curious, could China develop an anti--anti-missile system based on KK-ing incoming kinetic-kill missiles? But in general, the big problem with THAAD is that THAAD today is not THAAD tomorrow--today it might be unable to hit Chinese missiles in the hinterlands, but tomorrow it may be able to reach 2000 km, or gain a mid-course intercept ability.

AndrewS said:

I was under the impression that China already has a jamming station setup and ready to deal with THAAD whenever it switches on the radar.

Is that correct?

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More likely a listening station to gleam wartime operating frequencies if it tries to intercept NK missiles.

THAAD is going to be hard to jam given the power of the radar. Even if China could jam it without crippling all wireless signals in South Korea, it would be very unwise for them to do it. As that would allow the US to gather invaluable hard data on Chinese jamming capabilities and methods, and allow them to develop dedicated hard counters in the event of real conflict.

Inst said:

I'm curious, could China develop an anti--anti-missile system based on KK-ing incoming kinetic-kill missiles? But in general, the big problem with THAAD is that THAAD today is not THAAD tomorrow--today it might be unable to hit Chinese missiles in the hinterlands, but tomorrow it may be able to reach 2000 km, or gain a mid-course intercept ability.

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Why bother wasting resources for that kind of niche capability when they can just saturate THAAD with swarms of terrain hugging cruise missiles on a real shooting war?

The threat from THAAD to China doesn't really come from real war time operational use, but rather from the peacetime intel gathering capabilities of the radar and other sensors.

AndrewS said:

A better analogy would be if Mexico started hosting the Chinese Army.

What would be the reaction of the USA?

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Build a bigger wall!

Not the point; the reason Beijing fears THAAD is because it disables their nuclear deterrent. Cruise missiles don't travel fast enough to enable punishing first strikes before nukes knock out Chinese missiles in their silos.

Inst said:

Not the point; the reason Beijing fears THAAD is because it disables their nuclear deterrent. Cruise missiles don't travel fast enough to enable punishing first strikes before nukes knock out Chinese missiles in their silos.

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There is no silos most of Chinese missile are mobile and hidden in Underground great wall only to come out shoot and scoot
But THAAD will give the US the ability to snoop on Chinese military activity It is a no no
I guess they just have to pressure the Korean with economic weapon and wait until Moon Jain In take over

But over the long run the South Korean has to decide which way they want to go Relation hit a speed bump now but eventually they will will realized that China has the all the card



Interesting CCTV Tian Wei show on Korea China relationship
before THAAD
Seem there is interest in their historic connection

Sanctions usually don't work; Chinese boycotts of the EoJ are commonly credited with enhancing the EoJ's militaristic stance in China. Sanctions against South Korea have similar odds of alienating the South Koreans, and Chinese sanctions against Japan alienated the Japanese.

Inst said:

I'm curious, could China develop an anti--anti-missile system based on KK-ing incoming kinetic-kill missiles? But in general, the big problem with THAAD is that THAAD today is not THAAD tomorrow--today it might be unable to hit Chinese missiles in the hinterlands, but tomorrow it may be able to reach 2000 km, or gain a mid-course intercept ability.

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China's most simple, effective, and likely counters to the overall US ABM system (which THAAD is a part of) and nuclear first strike, possibly pre-emptive, capability (which THAAD may enable and encourage) is for China to develop its own equivalent capabilities.

EoJ didn't just invade China and massacre Chinese, did it? Economic retaliation has been quite effective in reducing Dalai Lama visits. Humans respect power above all else, there are plenty of Cubans who love America despite decades of crippling sanctions.

Inst said:

Sanctions usually don't work; Chinese boycotts of the EoJ are commonly credited with enhancing the EoJ's militaristic stance in China. Sanctions against South Korea have similar odds of alienating the South Koreans, and Chinese sanctions against Japan alienated the Japanese.

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But if they dream to reunify Korea ,China hold all the card.Korea is not Japan. Japan has always been at the periphery of Sino world in the past.
China policy of carrot and stick work brilliantly in South East Asia . If you keep ratcheting up the pressure eventually it will work