China's strategy in Korean peninsula

North Korea is reputed to have 20 nukes online. That's not an "insufficient" supply of nukes, unless you'd like to argue that China's minimum deterrence strategy didn't work during the 70s and 80s.

As for delivery, as I've mentioned before, it's plausible that North Korea can smuggle nukes across porous borders, or through shipping containers. There's probably a second reason China rejected North Korean coal shipments.

dingyibvs said:

NK does not have sufficient supply of nukes nor the method to deliver them. The whole point of this exercise is to prevent them from achieving those things. Time is running out, the time to act is now, hence the urgency you're seeing from both the American and the Chinese side.

Click to expand...

If that was the case, why was there no action when they first built the nukes? Surely if the nukes themselves were a concern, then would have been the more opportune moment of action?

I contend that there is no urgency on the Chinese side, and the urgency from the American side is more hot air than anything else.

NK is just a pawn in a game between two Great Powers.

Now this is getting serious

China put military aircraft in high alert

U.S. sees increased activity by Chinese bomber aircraft: officials

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States is aware of a higher-than-usual level of activity by Chinese bomber planes, signaling a possible heightened state of readiness, U.S. officials told Reuters on Thursday, but downplayed concerns and left open a range of possible reasons.

None of the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, suggested alarm or signaled that they knew the precise reason for such Chinese activity. Those possibilities include defensive exercises or Chinese concerns over North Korea.

U.S. officials have long speculated that North Korea could soon stage another nuclear test or carry on with missile tests.

The comments to Reuters came before U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday cited, without explanation, "some very unusual moves" that he said had been taken over the last two or three hours. It was not immediately clear what he was referring to.

Trump was speaking about Chinese activities to put pressure on Pyongyang when he said:

"Some very unusual moves have been made over the last two or three hours and I really have confidence that the (Chinese) president will try very hard. We don't know whether or not they're able to do that but I have absolute confidence that he will be trying very very hard," Trump said.

Trump has taken a hard line with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, who has rebuffed admonitions from sole major ally China and proceeded with nuclear and missile programs in defiance of U.N. Security Council sanctions.

(Reporting by Phil Stewart; Editing by Lisa Shumaker)

delft said:

US likes to fracture countries - Korea, Vietnam, Cyprus, Sudan, Yugoslavia and after that Serbia come to mind - but that generally causes a lot of misery for the population and in Vietnam it only lasted twenty years.
There is no reason for Korea to remain divided but the wish of US to maintain forces near China and the interest of a small minority of the people that profit from the US presence. South Korea is now after about three decades politically rather shaky and not a natural political unit.

Click to expand...

I agreed, and don't expect the western media to try to at least report and convey this point of view.

solarz said:

If that was the case, why was there no action when they first built the nukes? Surely if the nukes themselves were a concern, then would have been the more opportune moment of action?

I contend that there is no urgency on the Chinese side, and the urgency from the American side is more hot air than anything else.

NK is just a pawn in a game between two Great Powers.

Click to expand...

Because people were still hoping for a diplomatic solution while China and the US are playing chicken. The problem is coming to a head now, and the can will no longer be kicked down the road.

You're right, NK is just a pawn, and unless they start acting like it, it will cease to exist. This fact needs to be impressed on KJU if we're to avoid war.

dingyibvs said:

Because people were still hoping for a diplomatic solution while China and the US are playing chicken. The problem is coming to a head now, and the can will no longer be kicked down the road.

You're right, NK is just a pawn, and unless they start acting like it, it will cease to exist. This fact needs to be impressed on KJU if we're to avoid war.

Click to expand...

I am sorry that your points are getting confusing to me.

You are saying that "unless US and China act, a war is assured". So the center point is that war.

My question is then, the war between whom and whom? And who is forced/wants (two sides of the same coin) to start that war?

Since China will not initiate a regime change in NK (starting a war with NK), it is only war between NK and SK/US initially. Agreed?

China will only get herself involved in that war when SK/US is going to overrun the whole NK (a little passing 38 may be tolerated in the beginning). China got involved last time in 1950s. And China's involvement is guaranteed to happen this time around too. That is not something China is trying to avoid or afraid of getting into. One does what one have to. It is to say that China does not want a war on the peninsular, but China is going to avoid or afraid of getting into it. When shit hit the fan, so be it.

I feel that you have an assumption of China or preference of avoiding war at all cost? I think on the contrary, that assumption or preference is simply not there in the Chinese mind.

Last, let us remember what Chairman Mao said once in another event but making a good sense in the Korean peninsular issue, "天要下雨，娘要嫁人，随它去吧". You know what that means if you read Chinese.

taxiya said:

I am sorry that your points are getting confusing to me.

You are saying that "unless US and China act, a war is assured". So the center point is that war.

My question is then, the war between whom and whom? And who is forced/wants (two sides of the same coin) to start that war?

Since China will not initiate a regime change in NK (starting a war with NK), it is only war between NK and SK/US initially. Agreed?

China will only get herself involved in that war when SK/US is going to overrun the whole NK (a little passing 38 may be tolerated in the beginning). That was what happened in 1950s. And that is guaranteed to happen this time around. That is not something China is trying to avoid or afraid of getting into. One does what one have to.

I feel that you have an assumption of China or preference of avoiding war at all cost? I think on the contrary, that assumption or preference is simply not there in the Chinese mind.

Last, let us remember what Chairman Mao said once in another event but making a good sense in the Korean peninsular issue, "天要下雨，娘要嫁人，随它去吧". You know what does that mean if you read Chinese.

Click to expand...

No, you misunderstood me. The goal is denuclearization of NK. Accomplishing this task peacefully is preferred, but if war against NK is necessary to achieve this task, then so be it. China will not rush in to defend NK against the US/SK UNLESS NK is willing to be a good pawn, which includes denuclearizing. If they're not, then China will rush in to conquer NK in order to assure itself a favorable post-war order.

The sky may rain but NK doesn't have to nuclearize.

Inst said:

North Korea is reputed to have 20 nukes online. That's not an "insufficient" supply of nukes, unless you'd like to argue that China's minimum deterrence strategy didn't work during the 70s and 80s.

As for delivery, as I've mentioned before, it's plausible that North Korea can smuggle nukes across porous borders, or through shipping containers. There's probably a second reason China rejected North Korean coal shipments.

Click to expand...

During the 1970s and 1980s, there were rival superpowers that felt existentially threatened by each others. Both want to avoid overly antogonizing china as the opposing superpower would certainly come to China's aid and capitalize on the opportunity to draw china into its orbit should one of the super powers seem to be on the verge of gaining too much at China's expense. Inside the paranoid china of mao's era that might not seem to be the case, but it was really the existence of the other super power, not China's small nuclear arsenal, that kept china safe from each of the two super powers.

Today I don't think china would risk a nuclear showdown with the US to protect North Korea, as either superpower would most likely have done in the 1960s or 1970s to prevent the other superpower from gaining total ascendency over china.

So North korea's nuclear arsenal is really a much more vital assurance for North Korean regime's survival than China's arsenal had been during the 1970s and 1980s.

Btw, coal are not shipped in shipping containers.

dingyibvs said:

Because people were still hoping for a diplomatic solution while China and the US are playing chicken. The problem is coming to a head now, and the can will no longer be kicked down the road.

You're right, NK is just a pawn, and unless they start acting like it, it will cease to exist. This fact needs to be impressed on KJU if we're to avoid war.

Click to expand...

No, it's not because people are hoping for a diplomatic solution. It is because china doesn't need a solution. No one thinks North Korean regime, with its total inability to keep up economically, has the ability to last forever. But what is in it for china to resolve the problem quickly?

Nothing. The longer the problem remains unresolved, the stronger china will be compared to the US, Japan, and South Korea, and the greater the Chinese capability to ensure whatever comes out of a terminal crisis in North Korea can be made to conform to Chinese interests.

So why would china want to help resolve the problem now, when its ability to influence the solution in its own favor is as yet not nearly as strong as it would likely become in 10-20 years?

My guess is that there will be no hostilities in the Korean Peninsular. The US & China may have come to some agreement on this highly provocative situation. There could be a resumption of serious talks/negotiations, as suggested by China. Let's hope the potential disastrous situation/s will be avoided for the sake of the innocent civilian lives on all sides; & also for the East Asian & Global Economies. Hawkish Military action/s should never be the only option. The Owlish's Diplomacy should be tried again with talks/negotiations plus economic pressures on North Korea. During a crisis there could be an opportunity (The Chinese believe in "Wei-Ji") - something to mull in the minds of the Leaders.