Blackstone
Brigadier
Try to make sense, and if you don't know how, go back to school and learn.
China's strategy in Korean peninsula
- Thread starter Phead128
- Start date
solarz
Brigadier
As Iraq and Afghanistan have shown, rebuilding a country is not just about throwing money at it.
An unstable NK can only result in two outcomes, both of which are bad for China: NK becomes a failed state, or NK gets subsumed by SK.
China does not have the ability to rebuild NK into a friendly ally. To believe so is to succumb to the hubris of the Americans.
After WW2, the US successfully created 3 vassal states in East Asia: SK, Japan, and Taiwan. All three had one thing in common: an existential threat. Japan was hated by all its neighbors, SK had NK, and Taiwan had the Mainland. In other words, the interests of those 3 states matched with the interests of the US.
Note well that the US did not dismantle the leadership in any of those 3 states. They kept the Japanese government intact, and supported both anti-communist governments in SK and Taiwan.
China does not have any good alternatives to the Kim dynasty in NK. If the Kim dynasty was toppled, NK would have no good reason to prefer China over SK and US in terms of strategic interests. It would be extremely foolish for China to push for the removal of the Kim regime.
When considering the NK issue, one needs to look beyond Western propaganda. Kim Jong Un is neither crazy nor unpredictable. On the contrary, he is extremely rational and predictable. NK relentlessly pursues nuclear weapons because that is the only realistic means of ensuring its own survival. Kim Jong Un has no interest in exchanging the sovereignty of NK for Chinese protection.
China can, and should, only engage NK in the same way it engages all other nations: through trade and diplomacy. It is important for China to build influence in NK, influence is sometimes preferable to actual control. Control means also assuming responsibility. Influence does not result in such responsibility. China is not the least bit interested in assuming responsibility for the NK state.
An unstable NK can only result in two outcomes, both of which are bad for China: NK becomes a failed state, or NK gets subsumed by SK.
China does not have the ability to rebuild NK into a friendly ally. To believe so is to succumb to the hubris of the Americans.
After WW2, the US successfully created 3 vassal states in East Asia: SK, Japan, and Taiwan. All three had one thing in common: an existential threat. Japan was hated by all its neighbors, SK had NK, and Taiwan had the Mainland. In other words, the interests of those 3 states matched with the interests of the US.
Note well that the US did not dismantle the leadership in any of those 3 states. They kept the Japanese government intact, and supported both anti-communist governments in SK and Taiwan.
China does not have any good alternatives to the Kim dynasty in NK. If the Kim dynasty was toppled, NK would have no good reason to prefer China over SK and US in terms of strategic interests. It would be extremely foolish for China to push for the removal of the Kim regime.
When considering the NK issue, one needs to look beyond Western propaganda. Kim Jong Un is neither crazy nor unpredictable. On the contrary, he is extremely rational and predictable. NK relentlessly pursues nuclear weapons because that is the only realistic means of ensuring its own survival. Kim Jong Un has no interest in exchanging the sovereignty of NK for Chinese protection.
China can, and should, only engage NK in the same way it engages all other nations: through trade and diplomacy. It is important for China to build influence in NK, influence is sometimes preferable to actual control. Control means also assuming responsibility. Influence does not result in such responsibility. China is not the least bit interested in assuming responsibility for the NK state.
Blackstone
Brigadier
That's only correct if one cherry picks a narrow part of Sino-NK-SK relations, but the whole history tells a different story. It is common knowledge that Kim Il-sung detested the CCP and regularly print nasty China stories in the DPRK press, even though he and his ruling elites needed China to prop up North Korea. Here's one of many articles on PRC-DPRK relations, together, they paint an uneasy alliance with little trust on either side.
solarz
Brigadier
Just this one passage tells me the above linked article is not credible:
No, on the contrary, Chinese historians have delved deeply into the history of Koguryo. They were neither nomadic nor a minority group. They were an empire that was located in present-day NW China and a part of present-day NK. They existed at the same time as several Korean kingdoms. They were destroyed by the Tang dynasty and its people forcibly dispersed.
broadsword
Brigadier
Cut out the BS. Let me walk you through your logic.
You wrote :
Care to elaborate for us to understand since it goes against conventional wisdom?
More like North Korea is fearful of becoming pure Chinese client state.
They have little choice(apart from self-reliance,which is very hard for them to achieve), but they oppose it quite a lot.
In 2000s it somewhat worked out - partnership with China was at least somehow counterweighted by one with South Korea, +there were prospectives of partial return of Russian involvement.
But right now it's almost exclusively China.
They have little choice(apart from self-reliance,which is very hard for them to achieve), but they oppose it quite a lot.
In 2000s it somewhat worked out - partnership with China was at least somehow counterweighted by one with South Korea, +there were prospectives of partial return of Russian involvement.
But right now it's almost exclusively China.
broadsword
Brigadier
I would like to wait for BS have his say since he was using the word 'hate'.
Blackstone
Brigadier
You should have stated it that way in the first place, but instead you resorted to ad hominid. Next time try and act like a civilized human being for better communication. See post 183 above for reasoning; you could agree or disagree, that's your God-given right.
broadsword
Brigadier
What was my ad hominim attack?
Is the following statement of yours civilized?
..
That report does not give you the God-given right to say NK hates China as much as or more than Japan
North Korea does not want to be China's puppet state, which is why they're not satisfied with China's offer of protection and is instead insisting on developing nukes themselves. Once they obtain nukes and the ability to deliver them, they'll chart a more independent course, and all other actors in the region will adjust their stance toward NK accordingly.
As such, NK developing nukes is not a welcoming development from China's perspective, and in fact should be stopped at great cost if necessary.
Now, I agree that influence is preferred over control, which is why I believe that if war erupts over the peninsula, China should remove the NK leadership and its military, station troops in NK, but hand administrative control over the SK. Leave the mess to the South Koreans to handle, shirk the responsibility and build influence via assistance in rebuild instead.
As such, NK developing nukes is not a welcoming development from China's perspective, and in fact should be stopped at great cost if necessary.
Now, I agree that influence is preferred over control, which is why I believe that if war erupts over the peninsula, China should remove the NK leadership and its military, station troops in NK, but hand administrative control over the SK. Leave the mess to the South Koreans to handle, shirk the responsibility and build influence via assistance in rebuild instead.