China's strategy in Korean peninsula

Anlsvrthng said:

In reality it works by the oposite way.
trade war benefits the deficit country,and damaging the surpluss country.
see 1930.

Of course, without trade deficit the US can not give anything to SK/Japan/Taiwan/China

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Ever heard the expression past experience does not guarantee future result?
Just like stock market the past is not indication of future so all thos chart reader are reading tea leaves
Let put it this way more and more major American company like GM,GE, Qualcomm,Apple,Boeing,Caterpilar, Midwest farmer derive majority of their income and profit from Chinese market
America gain in living standard in the last 2 decades can be attributed to low inflation due to availability of low cost loan and cheap product from China Without it the inflation will skyrocket

The lost of American makret is minuscule to the chinese economy It represent only 15% the most and declining with every year
China internal consumption now make larger part of the GDP and growing with every year
So yeah China is ready for shoot out with US in trade. Pick you time and make my day

Flying_Fortress said:

So pla wolf, what you would prefer is for this forum to be an echo chamber with no dissenting opinion ? No Reality checks from the 中国梦 ？

I am sorry if my opinions offend you, and sorry to break it to you, but there is a big bad world outside of the great firewall where people tend to have conflicting opinions from time to time.



I'd say I agree with most of what you say, China does not owe the U.S. squat, the U.S. is in fact a bully, constantly taunting poor NK, and a strong China is indeed good for the world.

What China does owe is allegence to the U.N. , Which it is a part of & has delusions of hosting the U.N. permanently in China one day as opposed to NYC.

And by supporting a rogue nation for years that the U.N. has repeatedly censured, China has showed that they are not a peaceful nation, and they support regional chaos just as much as America.

China continues to allow rocket boy to provoke at minimum 3 other Member Countries of the U.N. & refuses to support the Unionification of the Korean Peninsula.

So it is a no brainer that the U.S. must maintain said large presence & rattle it's sabre in the region to protect SK & JP from NK & CHINA.

Click to expand...

The bold texts basically demonstrated that UNLIKE what you said about "US being bully, poor NK, or strong China is good" in the underlined texts, you are repeating EXACTLY what US has been saying all the time.

1. Calling a country rogue is exactly what G. W. Bush Jr. invented, that is the fundamental ground where you shared with him.
2. Provoking the 3? What about NK being threatened of annihilation since it being called a "rogue state and one of the 3 evils to be removed"?
3. (China) refuses to support Unification of Korea? Why should China support any such unification? Non of China's business to do such thing for free. Non of our responsibility or obligation. Wake up.
4. It is a no brainer that China will resist such large presence and flex her muscles to protect her own interest from US.

These are rhetoric (both yours and mine). Why I made the four points above is not because I believe they are helpful and meaningful in addressing the issues. BUT because I want to get your attention that:

1. Although making statements (like you did) without trying other's shoes is natural for an uneducated commoner. It is totally useless in reaching a solution.
2. Everyone can justify their own desire, so can the opposite side.
3. Trying to look balanced (the bully and good thing) is more than just say so.

Back to rationality, here is what I think,

1. In China's eyes, there is no "rogue" or "angel" nations, only conflicting nations.
2. China does not like NK's behavior.
3. China does not share the same desire of US annihilation of NK institution.
4. China does not share the same vision with SK in SK version of unification.
5. By now, the above three points are so clear after seeing what has been happening for years. Just accept it.
6. I would have called your post a "flame bait" if you were not "just hatched" because if you look through the past posts in the thread you should have realized that your opinion and the opposing opinions have been debated to death without going anywhere.

manqiangrexue said:

No, it actually doesn't. 1930's is a completely different economy with much less globalization and intertwinement than 2017. 1930's economy was like if you stopped buying your coffee from Starbucks, Starbucks loses money. Today's economy is like if you stopped buying coffee beans, then the planters lose money and you find that the next best planter up-charges a lot, making your coffee cost much higher, then people start buying your competitor's coffee and your business is tanked because you can't beat your competition. Then, with the increase in sales, your competitor needs more coffee beans for his business and guess who has a surplus because you stopped buying? Your original planter!

Point is, everyone does business for his own sake. The US government can't make American companies buy foreign in order to spread American influence. The only reason that American companies import is because it's a better deal for their businesses than domestic options. Removing that option will make their lives harder and their businesses less competitive on the global market, and less competitive often means bankrupt.

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Your example doesn't make sense.

The only reason why China/SK/JApan and so on can run trade surpluss is beacuase it is free to anyone to buy US investment instruments.

Example China or India or Japan or South Korea restict the purchase of domestic bonds by foreigners.

The trade follow the money, not the other way around.

Hendrik_2000 said:

Ever heard the expression past experience does not guarantee future result?
Just like stock market the past is not indication of future so all thos chart reader are reading tea leaves
Let put it this way more and more major American company like GM,GE, Qualcomm,Apple,Boeing,Caterpilar, Midwest farmer derive majority of their income and profit from Chinese market
America gain in living standard in the last 2 decades can be attributed to low inflation due to availability of low cost loan and cheap product from China Without it the inflation will skyrocket

Click to expand...

First and most important : the american living standard stagnated in the past few decade.
The companies profitability increased, but just because the job market saturated, and it become now the buyers markets.
And this is the reason why the US ( or UK ) productivity increase slowed/stoped.


And do you know what killed the SU?
The non-existing productivity growth.

Anlsvrthng said:

In reality it works by the oposite way.
trade war benefits the deficit country,and damaging the surpluss country.


see 1930.

Of course, without trade deficit the US can not give anything to SK/Japan/Taiwan/China

Click to expand...

Do you have historical facts to back up your claim that "trade war benefits the deficit country,and damaging the surpluss country." in the 1930s, even though the "deficit" country's manufacturers operating in the "surplus" country were exporting back home?

Did any historian, journalist or even journalist other than you, ever make that claim?

Anlsvrthng said:

Your example doesn't make sense.

The only reason why China/SK/JApan and so on can run trade surpluss is beacuase it is free to anyone to buy US investment instruments.

Example China or India or Japan or South Korea restict the purchase of domestic bonds by foreigners.

The trade follow the money, not the other way around.

Click to expand...

No, your reasons don't make any sense. We're going in circles. I already explained this before. Nobody needs to buy US investment instruments; they buy them because they are the best deal. If the US wants to step out of the equation, other countries will fill the gap. Maybe at first, they won't be as good, but they're good enough to work, and with more sales and more money for R&D, they will get better and better until the US can't compete. In order to prevent this death spiral, America must sell to keep itself on top. It is not America doing anyone a favor; it is America hanging on to its lead any way it can for as long as it can.

Selling bonds are how the US keeps itself running. If it stops, it slits its own throat, nobody else's.

Anlsvrthng said:

In reality it works by the oposite way.
trade war benefits the deficit country,and damaging the surpluss country.


see 1930.

Of course, without trade deficit the US can not give anything to SK/Japan/Taiwan/China

Click to expand...

That’s the kind of elementary economic ‘reasoning’ a high school economics student would be embarrassed about.

Trade wars damage ALL economies directly involved, and most economies not directly involved.

To even get the most basic idea of what might roughly happen in a trade war, you have to look at the composition of the trade between the economies; the composition and main contributors of the trade deficits;
the main players, owners and benefactors of that trade; the availability, price elasticity and supply side limitations of alternatives; the likely spillover impact on key 3rd party trading partners and their likely reactions and countermeasures.

And those are just the tip of the iceberg.

I do not have the time nor patience to give you the kind of comprehensive economic primer needed to have even the most basic understanding of how something as complex as a trade war will play out. Nor would the mods and other members want to wade through all that off topic talk.

So please, if you don’t have any background or even the most basic understanding in something, don’t assume that you can become an expert after reading a few circle jerk, rabble rousing fake news pieces from arts graduates who just write what their editors and readers want to read.

If a trade war with China was so simple and easy to win, why do you think every US President, including Trump, have suddenly and abruptly went to sing a very different tune about the idea after winning the White House and starts to get briefings from real experts about what their campaign rhetoric will mean in real life?

Anlsvrthng said:

First and most important : the american living standard stagnated in the past few decade.
The companies profitability increased, but just because the job market saturated, and it become now the buyers markets.
And this is the reason why the US ( or UK ) productivity increase slowed/stoped.

And do you know what killed the SU?
The non-existing productivity growth.

Click to expand...

No Soviet Union implode because she cannot provide the people with the consumer good due to strait jacket economy(planned economy) Where every mean of production is controlled by the state
Of course that will affect the productivity . So you are putting cart in front of the horse

Chinese economy is capitalist pure and simple because more than 70% of Chinese economy is the hand of private industry. The west has been criticizing the Chinese productivity for years ef Krugman study of declining productivity in Chinese economy but year by year Chinese economy still grow 3X so called highly productive economy of the west. Singapore is another example of low productivity country and yet she has one of the highest living standard in the world
As PLA wolf said high wage country prod industry to mechanize and therefore improve their productivity.

And China low productivity can be attribute mostly to low efficiency in agriculture and country side due to low level of mechanization. But supposing you mechanized the agriculture in one fell swoop what are you going to do with the million of peasant.
China now is in the mid of transition to higher efficiency in agriculture too by allowing the farmer to contract the land to agri company and derive income from it while at the same time working for the company But it will takes decades to finish the transition .

So making economic conclusion just based on productivity is just foolish!. Just like buying stock based on Technical analysis of moving averages

US trade figures are a huge lies and manipulations. The economy of the 1930s didn't have outsourcing. It's estimated that 60%-70% of China's exports to the US are outsourced products by US and other foreign corporations. They get counted as products of China even though China doesn't make penny when they're sold to consumers. Where does China make money? The slave labor as charged that make these products? So when they throw out how much money China makes from all "their" exports to the US, cut at least 60%-70% to get a more realistic figure.

Want to threaten ending trade with China? They even say China has become less appealing to outsourcers because labor is getting more expensive. One of the reasons why labor gets more expensive is because workers are finding better jobs that pay more. So if outsourcing foreign corporations are finding labor too expensive for them in China, it's because domestic Chinese companies are offering better pay than they do. So if the US wants to start a trade war with China, it'll do little to China because not many real Chinese companies where they profit from products they make for themselves do business in the US. And what happened to Japan when these latest island territorial disputes began? Trade plummeted between the two. Japan went into recession as a result. China didn't feel a thing. Why? Because 70% of the exports from China to Japan were actually Japanese corporations outsourcing to China shipping their products back to Japan. The US is larger example of that. Yes, the US can't do it alone. It'll need help from other countries that have trade surpluses with China. Trump going after allies on trade and then China cutting off their surplus money train on top of it... yeah right they're going go against their own economic interests and end up with no trade from the US and China just to appease the US. And remember how Vietnam is the new US darling of outsourcing better than China... And where does Vietnam get all its raw materials to produce products for foreign corporations that outsource? Do you see Vietnam with shipping fleets scouring around the world wheeling and dealing for raw materials to make products for foreigners? No. They get their raw materials from China that does all those things.

The reason why the US doesn't pull the trigger on cutting trade with China is because it'll hurt the US more than China. A lot of dreamers think cutting trade with China means those jobs come back to the US. No, not with the price of American labor. The dreamers also ignorantly think that Americans are the only consumers in this world. The world makes things and Americans are the only ones that buy them. That's what they believe. That's why they also think if they get those jobs back, they will be able to afford the rise in prices because of expensive American labor. But what happens if a US ally with competing products is still outsourcing to a cheaper labor country? The US company forced to make their products in expensive labor America cannot compete. The US can stop outsourcing. The rest of the world doesn't have to. US companies won't be able to compete and they go bankrupt unless they ban other countries that outsource from selling their products in the US. Trade wars erupts with the US's closest allies. And China sits pretty ironically because the US has spent a lot trying to isolate China which only served it to be more independent.

See how China is the glue that holds everything together?

Just like Google thought it was bigger than China and then lost making sure to remind every other corporation since not to mess with China, China needs to do that at a country level. China has many to choose from since so many countries think they can hide behind the US while trying to poke China in the eye. Vietnam, South Korea, Australia, even the US might volunteer itself as a example. We're witnessing history in China's favor. China isn't doing this. They're doing it and they should suffer the consequences of their own actions.

The latest U.N. vote against the U.S. was just a symboic vote, about the location of an embassy. China has defied U.N. sanctions against NK for years. And you say im not versed on Basic International Norms? Wake up & smell the coffee. PLA wolfe was trolling,flaming and calling for my suspension - stop readin

manqiangrexue said:

No, your reasons don't make any sense. We're going in circles. I already explained this before. Nobody needs to buy US investment instruments; they buy them because they are the best deal. If the US wants to step out of the equation, other countries will fill the gap. Maybe at first, they won't be as good, but they're good enough to work, and with more sales and more money for R&D, they will get better and better until the US can't compete. In order to prevent this death spiral, America must sell to keep itself on top. It is not America doing anyone a favor; it is America hanging on to its lead any way it can for as long as it can.

Selling bonds are how the US keeps itself running. If it stops, it slits its own throat, nobody else's.

Click to expand...

You seriously have no idea how the world finacial system works. The Federal Reserve buys up most of the U.S. debt, same with the bank of Japan, the Bank of CHINA..selling bonds to its self is how EVERY COUNTRY SURVIVES.

If China couldnt buy up province debt by just rolling it over into national debt every province would have slit its own neck AGES AGO. Countries, states, and provinces run something called a DEFICIET. My god you are a newb..

U.S. debt is the gold standard regardless of the interest level, it has nothing to do with R&D. If the U.S. defaults on its bonds, its Earth Shattering.

China defaulting would not really be a big deal, because CHINA owns all of its debt, and everyone knows the official figures on all things China are just made up to save face / brag.

I have no doubt U.S. financial figures are somewhat distorted, and I equally have no doubt China's financial figures are completly distorted and made up.