China's strategy in Korean peninsula

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dingyibvs

Senior Member
plawolf said:
Problem with that idea is geography.

Just look at the massive headache Syrian refugees are causing all of Europe and the violence and unrest the conflict had fuelled in Turkey.

The golden rule of life also applies to countries - don't shit where you live.

Even if China can contain the war to NK only, it will still face a flood of refugees coming into and either a conquered US client state stuffed to the gills with US troops and bases, or a chaotic failed state on its boarder.

The US has a long and proud history of walking away after creating a giant mess militarily. That mess would be China's problem afterwards.

It would not bog down the US or drain its resources or power, quite the contrary, it would become a source of instability that China would eventually be obligated to sort out.

I can see China being happy to help manoeuvre the US into fighting a pointless war with one of America's land neighbours. But to invite US military action in Korea is to go looking to create problems for yourself.

The only viable military option with NK is total conquest and complete nation building afterwards. Anything less will just make a bad situation worse.

China has no intention of investing the time, resources and blood needed for such a massive undertaking. And no one else has the capability or willpower for an undertaking on that scale.

As Iraq II showed, without a viable post conflict exit strategy, it is pure folly to charge into a war.
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Oh you better believe that the CCP and the PLA have been preparing for a devastating conflict in the Korean peninsula for the past 60 years. The post conflict exit strategy is simple, it's massive rebuild with Chinese expertise and Korean money. The two nations have much more stake in the stability of the north than any Western power did in Iraq, it'll get done. China has plenty of reason to undertake this massive task--it's China's last unstable land border region and an unstable regime that's becoming increasingly hostile toward China is about to acquire functional nuclear weapons with the ability to deliver them to Beijing.

If Kim is willing to defy Beijing even in his current situation, what makes you think he'll be more controllable or useful to China after he acquires the ability to nuke Beijing? That's a situation that ABSOLUTELY cannot happen, and China is willing to do everything it can to prevent that from happening. That China seemingly has convinced the world that it's mainly someone else' problem is truly a testament to the adroit diplomacy the Chinese leadership has conducted over the past few decades.
 
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Inst

Captain
The main Chinese problem with North Korea is that Fatty Kim the Third is under even less Chinese control than his father. Kim Jong Un executed many of the pro-Chinese faction in his court, and he had China's replacement dictator in Malaysia assassinated.

You have to understand, North Korea is fundamentally a blackmail state; its role lies in threatening its neighbors with weapons. North Korea nukes are as much a threat to China as they are to South Korea, with Beijing being within targeting range of North Korean nuclear weapons.

Yet the situation is complicated by the US threat in South Korea, which may be increasingly the lesser of two evils. The best possible outcome for China would be if North Korea develops nuclear weapons to achieve stability, but also if a more moderate government came to power in North Korea, replacing the unpredictable Kim Jong Un. The worst possible outcome would be North Korea blowing its nuclear horn on occasion to threaten neighbors for aid.
 
solarz

solarz

Brigadier
dingyibvs said:
Oh you better believe that the CCP and the PLA have been preparing for a devastating conflict in the Korean peninsula for the past 60 years. The post conflict exit strategy is simple, it's massive rebuild with Chinese expertise and Korean money. The two nations have much more stake in the stability of the north than any Western power did in Iraq, it'll get done. China has plenty of reason to undertake this massive task--it's China's last unstable land border region and an unstable regime that's becoming increasingly hostile toward China is about to acquire functional nuclear weapons with the ability to deliver them to Beijing.

If Kim is willing to defy Beijing even in his current situation, what makes you think he'll be more controllable or useful to China after he acquires the ability to nuke Beijing? That's a situation that ABSOLUTELY cannot happen, and China is willing to do everything it can to prevent that from happening. That China seemingly has convinced the world that it's mainly someone else' problem is truly a testament to the adroit diplomacy the Chinese leadership has conducted over the past few decades.
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I think you vastly underestimate the amount of resources that would be needed to rebuild NK after a military toppling of the Kim regime, and of the level of humanitarian disaster that would be unleashed by such an act.

Most importantly, you have not outlined how China stands to benefit from a regime change, compared to maintaining status quo. Kim is only a threat in western media propaganda, there is no realistic scenario where NK can pose a threat to China.

On the other hand, a unified Korea under the influence of the USA would be a devastating blow against Chinese security.
 
Gloire_bb

Gloire_bb

Captain
Registered Member
Inst said:
unpredictable Kim Jong Un
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Apart from traditional North Korean way of communication(which is obvious necessity) - they're remarkably predictable. And cold-minded, btw.

And it's US/SK "achievement" what Northern elites are so sure about WMD rattling being their only safe ticket. Because NK is going to fall in 1-2 years for 15 years already, doesn't it?
Truly remarkable unwillingness to just meat reality.
 
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N00813

Junior Member
Registered Member
B.I.B. said:
NORTH Korea leader Kim Jong-un has reportedly ordered residents of the country’s capital Pyongyang to leave the city immediately, sparking fears he may be preparing for war.

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Fake news, apparently.
There's an international marathon in NK right now, with the associated reporters & embassies.
None of them have reported seeing anything, and I don't see how even NK could hide this fact from embassies (which can use code for communications; various Foreign Ministries around the world would know if it happened.)
 
Miragedriver

Miragedriver

Brigadier
I couldn’t resist this picture I found.
umINYQT.jpg
 
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advill

Junior Member
A Chinese saying "The virtuous are never lonely as they have close friends". The difficulty is finding the virtuous these days. Also, as the good saying goes "whoever is without sin - cast the first stone". This can also pertain to modern times, including the present dilemma with N Korea, where there are also many innocent civilians living in that country. Recollect what happened to Vietnam, Iraq etc. where these devastated countries caused many innocent civilian deaths. "Take Evil Out but Take Care" (Advill).
 
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latenlazy

Brigadier
solarz said:
On the other hand, a unified Korea under the influence of the USA would be a devastating blow against Chinese security.
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But what does the calculus look like if China can get SK to agree to remove US bases in exchange for reunification (not to say that SK wants reunification for certain).
 
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schlieffen

New Member
latenlazy said:
But what does the calculus look like if China can get SK to agree to remove US bases in exchange for reunification (not to say that SK wants reunification for certain).
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I think that was actually the prevailing mood in China during the Xi-Park honeymoon between 2013-15 -- let’s prepare for the inevitable eventuality of a unified peninsula under Seoul. However, the THAAD episode has amply demonstrated that China does not have real leverage over S.Korea except the economic one, and the United States kept its semi-client state in very tight control. No deal to remove U.S. military from Korean soil can be brokered until U.S. military was removed from Korean soil, hence the circular reasoning. Just like Soviet forces in Germany, only Washington could chose to leave/give up Korea -- that decision is not for Koreans to make.


With Beijing losing its influence in Pyongyang, bankruptcy of the Seoul option really left China with no viable strategy in the peninsula, except to procrastinate the inevitable outburst as long as possible.
 
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