This is a profound ignorance of South Asia.
All the Pashtun areas are landlocked. The part of Pakistan that borders the Indian Ocean most relevant to China (with ports like Karachi and Lahore) are Punjabi and Sindhi, who are much richer and more secular than the Pashtun. Other part of Pakistan close to the Indian Ocean are Balochi, who are hostile to China, Iran and the Pakistani central government. Balochi militants attacked Chinese before.
Now you might think, how come Pakistani Punjabis dont' want to reunite with Indian Punjabis? Because in Pakistan, Punjabis and Sindhis have much more power, while in India, even combined Punjab would have less power than Bengalis and the generalize "Hindi speaking cow belt" of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Delhi. Pakistani Punjabis would go from ruling the country to being just a regional identity. Why would they want to join India? Sindhis would be even worse because they're a big ethnic group in Pakistan, but would be nothing in India.
Punjab and Sindh have all the money and most of the population of Pakistan, and they stand to lose the most power if they join India. So they never will. Pashtuns might benefit from joining Afghanistan, but you get nothing from them. And Balochis already hate Chinese, you'll get nothing from them.
So by appeasing Afghanistan and India, you are guaranteed to alienate the rich secular parts of Pakistan, and might possibly get the poor radical parts. What a deal.
While I am wrong about the Pashtun regions being near the sea, I still believe in China striving for better relations with India. On your point about the different ethnic groups in Pakistan losing autonomy if they join Pakistan, India can just agree to make them an
. Also, not all of the non-Pashtun regions have to join India, that was somewhat naïve of me. As for non-friendly groups like the Balochi, is there a reason why relations are bad with them? I think China can resolve its issues with Balochi, but if China can't, there's Iran's Chabahar Port.
Now, I just want to say that I'm not advocating for China to play an active in partaking in all of the changes I have listed so far. Instead, I'm advocating for China to have an open-mind. Eventually, India will get stronger both militarily and economically, and India will want to assert its influence in the Indian subcontinent. I think it's in China's interest to build better relations to India.
I am going to assume you are under good intention and not trolling.
The thing is China is already doing what you are saying to no avail. Pakistan is not showing any interest unify with India, and certainly China is preventing it, and neither China could force Pakistan to join. So you are barking to the wrong trees. What could be helpful would be stopping persecution of Muslim and curb the Hindu supremacists sentiment. All of those are not things China can control.
And if somehow China CAN make Pakistan unify with India, I don't think it would be in Chinese interest anyway. Unless you can somehow make sure India give up territorial claims and stop contest Chinese interest in the region. That is incredibly hard.
Lastly and relevant to the topic. China does not need help of India to expands its influence of Afghanistan, assuming India is willing to help in first place, which they won't. Good thing China is rich and experienced in development, there is little India can do to hinder it either. China does not need permission from India. India does not 'own' Afghanistan.
To sum up your plan has 4 flaws/impossibilities:
1. China cannot do much to facilitate unification of India and Pakistan, however India itself could.
2. India refused to be helped.
3. It is impossible making sure India stop antagonize China, revoke territorial claim, and respect China's side of sphere of influence. Is it really in China's interest unless you got those solved?
4. It is wrong to assume China cannot influence Afghanistan without India's permission.
- I think this was a combination of bad wording and short-sightedness on my part. China is not required to take an active role in facilitating unification with India and Pakistan. What I am saying is that if China sees that unification is inevitable, China should use this opportunity to help establish it between India and Pakistan. By doing this, China can build good relations with India. This could lead to a peace treaty to end the border dispute and more economic cooperation.
- As for Hindu supremacists and persecution of Muslim, obvious this is an Indian problem, so China can't do much when it comes to this. With that said, I don't think these problems are going to last forever. If India solves these problems and unification starts getting more likely, what's China gonna do. Stop unification or accept it and work with India. I think the ladder option would benefit China more.
- China and India had great relations before the border disputes and the Tibet issue, so it's not impossible.
- I think you take my statement the wrong way. I'm not saying that India can block China from exerting influence on Afghanistan. What am I saying is that India can get in China's way. An example could be backing anti-China factions in the Taliban, or maybe backing another group entirely that's pro-India and anti-China. However, if China had great relations with India, none of this would happen.
You Said : Afghanistan is not just China's sphere of influence. Afghanistan is also part of Iran and India's sphere of influence.
China and Iran share borders with Afghanistan. So one can reasonably make such claim. But India is separated from Afghanistan by a "hostile" Pakistan. Making such claim is beyond a stretch of imagination.
You Said : But India would not like that at all and would counter China's BRI efforts.
How ? India is totally separated land wise by Pakistan, China and Myanmar from the rest of the Asian land mass. India lacks the geopolitical clout to do anything. The only counter India can do is disruption of the Maritime Silk Road. But India is not some far off country but instead shares a long border with China. Prompt and severe retaliations are guaranteed if India make such move.
You said : That's why its important to build friendly relations with India.
On the contrary, its important for India to build friendly relations with China.
You said : Once China builds friendly relations with India, China, India, and Iran can share spheres of influence in Afghanistan and can greatly benefit from BRI and BRICS.
Thank you, Afghanistan will do fine with China and Iran working together to help her development. Afghanistan does not need India to benefit from BRI and BRICS.
You said : As for the problem of China's access to the Indian Ocean, I pretty sure that there's a Pashto region in Pakistan that has access to the Indian Ocean. In a hypothetical reunification where Afghanistan gets the all the Pashto regions and India gets all the non-Pastho regions, China could just work with Afghanistan on getting access to the Indian Ocean.
You must have learn your geography from Liz Truss. Just look at the map of Pashtun area in your original post. How is China going to access to Indian Ocean via Afghanistan and her "annexed" Pashtun region ?
You said : As for religious conflicts, all you need is a competent secular government that is willing to respect Freedom of Religion. While this may be challenging for India, it is not impossible. As countries industrialize and get richer, they tend to secularize. This has been a constant trend for many countries.
According to Indian and some Western news media, India has come a long way in industrialization and getting wealthy since Modi took over as PM in 2014. Is India getting more secular ?
India doesn't have to go through Pakistan to get to Afghanistan. They can do it through sea. Do you really think Pakistan block India from going to Afghanistan by sea? Also, India can't block Chinese influence ,but India can hinder it by supporting an anti-China faction in the Taliban or another anti-China group. As for blocking the Maritime Silk Road, India wouldn't do something that would negatively affect them too.
As for the BRI, that's whatever, but India is part of BRICS though. What are you gonna do? Kick India out of BRICS?
I was wrong about the Pashtun regions ,but that doesn't mean China should just drop the idea of having good relations with India. There's also Iran's Chabahar Port, which has access through the Indian Ocean.
On India's development, secularization takes than just 8 years. Even then, India isn't even fully industrialized. It's still a developing country. The point isn't to remove religious influence in India, but rather to make India less extreme.
Are you kidding? Pakistan and India are two separate countries with a lot of bad blood. Why can't Palestine retake over Israel? Why can't China retake over Vietnam? Taiwan is a part of china, just under separatist occupation currently, totally not the same.
Pakistan and India have common ethnic groups along with a shared culture and history. You can't compare that to Palestine or Vietnam.
