China's strategy in Afghanistan.
- Thread starter ohan_qwe
- Start date
Back to topic. If China want influence in Afghanistan they can always gain by investment and arms sale. What China offers is far more valuable. Despite territorial dispute it is not so severe that it make Afghan hate for China merely being friendly with Pakistan. In fact if somehow those two fight China would be a neutral mediator. In the long run I expect China to gain Afganistan into sphere of influence. It does not make sense to be for anyone else.
Russian can offer arms sale, but they are too poor to buy. RIght now they cannot afford to purchase anything or start any war. It only makes sense for them to focus on development. Only China can offer such help.
Russian can offer arms sale, but they are too poor to buy. RIght now they cannot afford to purchase anything or start any war. It only makes sense for them to focus on development. Only China can offer such help.
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Pakistan may be cursed with many political and religious extremism problems, but it is blessed with a very strategic location. Like Myanmar, Pakistan offers China direct access to the Indian Ocean. That is why we have China investing so heavily into the CPEC and CMEC.
When forced into a choice, China will pick Pakistan over Afghanistan any day. But luckily, due to the incompetency of both the US and India, China does not have to.
As for stabilization of relationship between Pakistan and India, China's position has always been neutral and leave it up to the two countries. But India annexing all or part of Pakistan is a big NO NO for China. Have we even seen a country with a significant Muslim minority population and an oppressive majority that does not end up in some form of uprising or even full scale war ? Why would China want to help create such suffering and instability right next door ?
As for helping to develop Afghanistan, India is free to do so. But I can't see how India can displace China. With a US puppet government running Afghanistan that tried to keep China out as much as possible and highly friendly to India, India still cannot deliver. So what will be different now ?
When forced into a choice, China will pick Pakistan over Afghanistan any day. But luckily, due to the incompetency of both the US and India, China does not have to.
As for stabilization of relationship between Pakistan and India, China's position has always been neutral and leave it up to the two countries. But India annexing all or part of Pakistan is a big NO NO for China. Have we even seen a country with a significant Muslim minority population and an oppressive majority that does not end up in some form of uprising or even full scale war ? Why would China want to help create such suffering and instability right next door ?
As for helping to develop Afghanistan, India is free to do so. But I can't see how India can displace China. With a US puppet government running Afghanistan that tried to keep China out as much as possible and highly friendly to India, India still cannot deliver. So what will be different now ?
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Least nationalistic Chinese. Seriously, you guys say that Indians are crazy, yet here you are advocating for the dismantling of India. I can only hope you are joking, and I'm just reading too much into it.
I'm not saying China should take an active role in reunifying Pakistan and India. China just needs to take a passive role, and through economic and cultural exchange, Pakistan and India could unite. China would gain better relations, more economic trade, and an end to the border disputes, BRI investment into Afghanistan without upsetting India, and better cooperation with BRICS. Yes, you could say that India will get back more from this exchange. However, like I said earlier, the world isn't fair. Sometimes, one side will get more out of an exchange than the other side. But as long as China gains something from this exchange, this is still a win for China.
Pakistanis and North Indians are basically the same ethnic group with a shared culture and history. The only dividing factor is religion(Islam). Although hard, it is solvable. A secular Indian government could just pass a law supporting Freedom of Religion. Now, another alternative to reunification would be forming an alliance and establishing good relations. With that said, I think it's possible for partial reunification. The Pashto region would go to Afghanistan and the non-Pashto region would go to India.
That's not how geopolitics work my dude. Instead of getting overly emotional over this, think rationally for a moment. A friendly India is good for China. Even if India is hostile to China right now, that doesn't mean China should give up. China and India had great relations with each other before the Sino-Indian War.
Glad to see their is someone else who is sensible and isn't blinded by irrational nationalism and hatred for India.
Remember, Afghanistan is not just China's sphere of influence. Afghanistan is also part of Iran and India's sphere of influence. Right now, China would like Afghanistan to be part of its BRI, and Iran would also like that too. But India would not like that at all and would counter China's BRI efforts. That's why its important to build friendly relations with India. Once China builds friendly relations with India, China, India, and Iran can share spheres of influence in Afghanistan and can greatly benefit from BRI and BRICS.
Both the previous Afghan government and the Taliban have always had great relations with India. There's a decent amount of FDI from India into Afghanistan. As for the problem of China's access to the Indian Ocean, I pretty sure that there's a Pashto region in Pakistan that has access to the Indian Ocean. In a hypothetical reunification where Afghanistan gets the all the Pashto regions and India gets all the non-Pastho regions, China could just work with Afghanistan on getting access to the Indian Ocean. As for religious conflicts, all you need is a competent secular government that is willing to respect Freedom of Religion. While this may be challenging for India, it is not impossible. As countries industrialize and get richer, they tend to secularize. This has been a constant trend for many countries.
Hey world is not fair. India so far only harassed Chinese FDI. They harassed Chinese border. China has a lot to gain to put down a troublesome neighbor than to bendback backward to please it. Not to mention India continuously bite the hand that feed it. It is not like China never tried to help India.
Just you wait. Indian FDI is nothing, Chinese has both the industry and money far surpasses India. Indian influence in Afghanistan will be a non factor.
In conclusion:
1. India so far refused to cooperate with China despite it is THEIR interest. Such as building road, opening factory. This means India refused to be helped and CANNOT be helped.
2. There is little that India that can help China in first place.
3. It is not helpful to make your rival grow stronger.
The only good trait of India is they seem to bite everyone's hand equally. They would not be loyal lapdog to USA just as they cannot befriend China.
Just you wait. Indian FDI is nothing, Chinese has both the industry and money far surpasses India. Indian influence in Afghanistan will be a non factor.
In conclusion:
1. India so far refused to cooperate with China despite it is THEIR interest. Such as building road, opening factory. This means India refused to be helped and CANNOT be helped.
2. There is little that India that can help China in first place.
3. It is not helpful to make your rival grow stronger.
The only good trait of India is they seem to bite everyone's hand equally. They would not be loyal lapdog to USA just as they cannot befriend China.
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Duh. It shouldn't be dismantled, it should be erased.
It's honestly astounding how you could just strawman everything I said into "China bending over backwards to please India". Are you just gonna ignore all of the things I said that China could gain from friendly relations with India? Look man, India isn't going away, and it's the same with Indian influence in Afghanistan. It's better for China to build relations with India than to try to stop India's growth b/c we all know how well that worked for the U.S. trying to suppress China.
This is a profound ignorance of South Asia.
All the Pashtun areas are landlocked. The part of Pakistan that borders the Indian Ocean most relevant to China (with ports like Karachi and Lahore) are Punjabi and Sindhi, who are much richer and more secular than the Pashtun. Other part of Pakistan close to the Indian Ocean are Balochi, who are hostile to China, Iran and the Pakistani central government. Balochi militants attacked Chinese before.
Now you might think, how come Pakistani Punjabis dont' want to reunite with Indian Punjabis? Because in Pakistan, Punjabis and Sindhis have much more power, while in India, even combined Punjab would have less power than Bengalis and the generalize "Hindi speaking cow belt" of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Delhi. Pakistani Punjabis would go from ruling the country to being just a regional identity. Why would they want to join India? Sindhis would be even worse because they're a big ethnic group in Pakistan, but would be nothing in India.
Punjab and Sindh have all the money and most of the population of Pakistan, and they stand to lose the most power if they join India. So they never will. Pashtuns might benefit from joining Afghanistan, but you get nothing from them. And Balochis already hate Chinese, you'll get nothing from them.
So by appeasing Afghanistan and India, you are guaranteed to alienate the rich secular parts of Pakistan, and might possibly get the poor radical parts. What a deal.
I am going to assume you are under good intention and not trolling.
The thing is China is already doing what you are saying to no avail. Pakistan is not showing any interest unify with India, and certainly China is preventing it, and neither China could force Pakistan to join. So you are barking to the wrong trees. What could be helpful would be stopping persecution of Muslim and curb the Hindu supremacists sentiment. All of those are not things China can control.
And if somehow China CAN make Pakistan unify with India, I don't think it would be in Chinese interest anyway. Unless you can somehow make sure India give up territorial claims and stop contest Chinese interest in the region. That is incredibly hard.
Lastly and relevant to the topic. China does not need help of India to expands its influence of Afghanistan, assuming India is willing to help in first place, which they won't. Good thing China is rich and experienced in development, there is little India can do to hinder it either. China does not need permission from India. India does not 'own' Afghanistan.
To sum up your plan has 4 flaws/impossibilities:
1. China cannot do much to facilitate unification of India and Pakistan, however India itself could.
2. India refused to be helped.
3. It is impossible making sure India stop antagonize China, revoke territorial claim, and respect China's side of sphere of influence. Is it really in China's interest unless you got those solved?
4. It is wrong to assume China cannot influence Afghanistan without India's permission.
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You Said : Afghanistan is not just China's sphere of influence. Afghanistan is also part of Iran and India's sphere of influence.
China and Iran share borders with Afghanistan. So one can reasonably make such claim. But India is separated from Afghanistan by a "hostile" Pakistan. Making such claim is beyond a stretch of imagination.
You Said : But India would not like that at all and would counter China's BRI efforts.
How ? India is totally separated land wise by Pakistan, China and Myanmar from the rest of the Asian land mass. India lacks the geopolitical clout to do anything. The only counter India can do is disruption of the Maritime Silk Road. But India is not some far off country but instead shares a long border with China. Prompt and severe retaliations are guaranteed if India make such move.
You said : That's why its important to build friendly relations with India.
On the contrary, its important for India to build friendly relations with China.
You said : Once China builds friendly relations with India, China, India, and Iran can share spheres of influence in Afghanistan and can greatly benefit from BRI and BRICS.
Thank you, Afghanistan will do fine with China and Iran working together to help her development. Afghanistan does not need India to benefit from BRI and BRICS.
You said : As for the problem of China's access to the Indian Ocean, I pretty sure that there's a Pashto region in Pakistan that has access to the Indian Ocean. In a hypothetical reunification where Afghanistan gets the all the Pashto regions and India gets all the non-Pastho regions, China could just work with Afghanistan on getting access to the Indian Ocean.
You must have learn your geography from Liz Truss. Just look at the map of Pashtun area in your original post. How is China going to access to Indian Ocean via Afghanistan and her "annexed" Pashtun region ?
You said : As for religious conflicts, all you need is a competent secular government that is willing to respect Freedom of Religion. While this may be challenging for India, it is not impossible. As countries industrialize and get richer, they tend to secularize. This has been a constant trend for many countries.
According to Indian and some Western news media, India has come a long way in industrialization and getting wealthy since Modi took over as PM in 2014. Is India getting more secular ?