China's strategy in Afghanistan.

drowingfish

Junior Member
Registered Member
holy moly, what a difference a few day makes, looks like as afghan government resources converged on a few cities Taliban redirected their efforts elsewhere and scored some big gains especially Kunduz. since government forces is still playing catch up it is unlikely that any losses will be recovered. the taliban will be strengthened in so many ways from these gains.
 

PiSigma

"the engineer"
holy moly, what a difference a few day makes, looks like as afghan government resources converged on a few cities Taliban redirected their efforts elsewhere and scored some big gains especially Kunduz. since government forces is still playing catch up it is unlikely that any losses will be recovered. the taliban will be strengthened in so many ways from these gains.
Sun Tze warned them about this... When you try to defend everything, then you are defending nothing. Taliban can just concentrate troops where the American sponsored regime is not putting troops. Eventually, whatever is left under government control will be isolated and cutoff from supplies and reinforcements then Taliban just walk in.
 

SampanViking

The Capitalist
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
Sun Tze warned them about this... When you try to defend everything, then you are defending nothing. Taliban can just concentrate troops where the American sponsored regime is not putting troops. Eventually, whatever is left under government control will be isolated and cutoff from supplies and reinforcements then Taliban just walk in.
I think you add to that local support on the ground and that local ethnic/tribal leaders are giving their support to the Taliban and not the Central Government. One of the cities that fell was the home base of a leading and notable Tajik warlord. I cannot imagine it would "fall" so quickly, if he and his militia were oppossed to it.
 

drowingfish

Junior Member
Registered Member
Sun Tze warned them about this... When you try to defend everything, then you are defending nothing. Taliban can just concentrate troops where the American sponsored regime is not putting troops. Eventually, whatever is left under government control will be isolated and cutoff from supplies and reinforcements then Taliban just walk in.
well i think the wave of provincial capitals falling to the taliban is a sign that the afghan gov is no longer trying to defend everything. if i were to guess, their intentions could be to keep US air power involved for as long as possible, let the taliban have most of the cities, but at a minimum keep kabul in gov hands. if kabul were the only city to be defended, the US might be willing to commit air power for an extended period.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
I think you add to that local support on the ground and that local ethnic/tribal leaders are giving their support to the Taliban and not the Central Government. One of the cities that fell was the home base of a leading and notable Tajik warlord. I cannot imagine it would "fall" so quickly, if he and his militia were oppossed to it.
That would be General Dostum, I doubt he would switch sides to the Taliban. The Taliban hate him - he was the guy who killed them all in shipping containers by suffocating them (under CIA supervision).

The taliban raided his house and stole his uniforms.

Until recently (the past few days) he was in Turkey. Apparently he's come back to fight.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
That would be General Dostum, I doubt he would switch sides to the Taliban. The Taliban hate him - he was the guy who killed them all in shipping containers by suffocating them (under CIA supervision).

The taliban raided his house and stole his uniforms.

Until recently (the past few days) he was in Turkey. Apparently he's come back to fight.
@Abominable bro I feel that the US with Turkey as a willing participant had a hand on this, they plan to use him to build a sanctuary where the ETIM can operate.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
@Abominable bro I feel that the US with Turkey as a willing participant had a hand on this, they plan to use him to build a sanctuary where the ETIM can operate.
I don't see what Afghanistan offers as a base for ETIM. It is geographically close to Western China but the border is very small and infrastructure non existent. ETIM are based out of Washington and Berlin, not Kabul or anywhere else in Central Asia.

The Turkish deployment in Afghanistan is small and right now limited to guarding HKIA. They may be Muslims but the Taliban don't seem to be too fond of them.

The Taliban have hosted Uyghars in the past - whether they were ETIM or not is debatable. If the Taliban decide to support them it would be a big mistake - China could bomb their training camps without setting foot in the country.

On the contrary - the Taliban seem to be quite receptive to the Chinese.
 

SampanViking

The Capitalist
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
Well it does seem given the speed and the geographic diversity of the Taliban gains over the last few days, that this is not so much an Offensive by Insurgents but now more of a popular uprising against a Central Government that his no credibility and which is seen as no more than a puppet installed by hostile foreign powers.
I suspect that large numbers of the Afghan army are imply jumping ship, as most will have simply signed on for the wages.
 
Top