China's strategy in Afghanistan.
- Thread starter ohan_qwe
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I wonder under what assumptions about afghanistan is China operating. Does it assume that Taliban will takeover? or the current recognized government will retain control over some regions and therefore the country will fragment into warring factions?
China's stance is always non-interferring of other country's internal affairs. Help, reconstruction etc Yes.
I think there is little doubt Taliban will take over, and do so much faster than many people might think, probably well before the end of 2021. The US did precious little to help establish the puppet government’s capacity to operate its military and security forces independent of the US logistic support during the entire 20 years. When the US is pulling out, it largely didn’t both to coordinate with the Afghan security forces so such inadequate capabilities it has could be brought up to such readiness it could otherwise still had.
Such is the nature of the Anglo coloniser; set up a hated minority government overwhelmingly dependant on Anglo largesse and protection and kick em to the curb when no longer useful; the Gurkhas could’ve told the afghans that
That is true for most states but Afghanistan have a few exceptions. Islam/Uighurs that may attack China, US/India supporting the other side and their alliance with Pakistan.
China don't interfere in how a government deals with its own people. But playing the geopolitical game and use others as assets is something China have perfected under 5000 years and written about in books like art of war.
Illuminating perspectives and insights from one of Pakistans decorated general (Gen.Tariq Khan) on Afghanistan.
@Bellum_Romanum nice video, thanks bro, the final analysis to the US "SHOW ME THE MONEY". Its about development and the Americans are fighting a wrong war. In a way this COLD WAR with China we can foresee the outcome. Except for the 5 eyes, the battle ground had move to EU and its possible implosion is high, with discontent rising. Nation state had been over rule by the unelected EU bureaucrats using autocratic method. If it implodes then the cold war will be over cause the US had reach an imperial overreached, if the center can't hold, the weight will be crushing down on them.
The Taliban currently holds the sole Afghan district that borders China, thus it is prudent for China to establish relations with the Taliban even if they don't take over the entire nation. Nonetheless, I do think China is operating under the assumption that the Taliban will achieve overwhelming power in the current struggle. The urban-based government is in a very precarious situation as their armed forces are systematically underpaid and utterly demoralized. Afghan troops surrendering to the Taliban in quick succession throughout the nation has dismissed any notion of Afghan combat readiness. At the moment, the seat of the Afghan government seems to be surrounded and they completely lack territorial integrity. They cannot rely on their armed forces thus their only hope is regional militias which will have a high chance lead to warlords with no incentive to be loyal to the government in Kabul.
some interesting developments in Afghanistan in recent days. The taliban is making a legitimate attempt on Lashkar gah, herat and kandahar city. so far it seems that lashkar gah is most likely to fall first. this will change the conflict in a profound manner as it will be the first time a major city/provincial capital falls to the taliban. should this come to pass the taliban will be strengthened in the way of additional tax revenue and man-power. I wonder if it will also weaken the resolve of defenders in other isolated afghan cities.
the afghan government, in an attempt to prevent cities from being lost, seem to have sent a large number of SF to Herat by air, I thought it was a stupid move. either these SF guys wont make a difference, or if they do change the balance of power, the taliban can simply sit back and maintain a seige on the city, while the afghan government is left with the choice of leaving their SF assets tied up there, or pulling them out to other places of need, making Herat vulnerable again. it seems increasingly likely that isolated cities will start to fall soon. I imagine a few could fall to the taliban this month.
the afghan government, in an attempt to prevent cities from being lost, seem to have sent a large number of SF to Herat by air, I thought it was a stupid move. either these SF guys wont make a difference, or if they do change the balance of power, the taliban can simply sit back and maintain a seige on the city, while the afghan government is left with the choice of leaving their SF assets tied up there, or pulling them out to other places of need, making Herat vulnerable again. it seems increasingly likely that isolated cities will start to fall soon. I imagine a few could fall to the taliban this month.