China's strategy in Afghanistan.

Overbom said:

Is SCO enough for China to unite the region economically? I doubt it.

What RCEP is for ASEAN region, SCO isn't for Central Asia. Here, China is being blocked by Russia as it considers this region in its sphere of influence.

Probably China will have to sit down with Russia and make concessions in order for it to form a (potential) unified economic block. Dont forget that Russia already has its Eurasian Economic Union (correct name?) for trading with Central Asia.

Its time for China to increased its interests there.
Russia is already punching way way above its weight, severely blocking/stopping China's influence from advancing in Central Asia

Click to expand...

thanks for the discussion. Right now China and Russia are enjoying the best period of strategic partnership between the two giant neighbours in decades because of the need to oppose a powerful common enemy together.
If I understand the situation correctly, China is not vying for influence and control over Central Asia against Russian interests. I am sure China and Russia will work out a win-win formula for successful cooperation. As it is, Russia is slowly warming up to BRI, at least not voicing opposition to it openly.
Russia is already stretched quite thin squaring off USA in Europe, Ukraine, Syria, and the Middle East. It can do with some cooperation and support from China at the SCO, especially in the economic and development fields.

Jono said:

Right now China and Russia are enjoying the best period of strategic partnership between the two giant neighbours in decades because of the need to oppose a powerful common enemy together.

Click to expand...

Yes but not only for a common enemy. At recent years China and Russia are moving further than that. It started as opposition to the US but now it has reached another level where relations between these 2 countries are starting to decouple the US on their considerations for their own relationships.

I believe that China and (especially) Russia have realised their mistakes during the Cold War for "betraying" each other for benefits.

IMO they are now working on the basis of "it is better to have good relations with your neighbor" and "it is better to have a distant enemy than an enemy next to you"

Jono said:

If I understand the situation correctly, China is not vying for influence and control over Central Asia against Russian interests

Click to expand...

China is not actively vying for influence but it is certainly passively gaining influence due to its bigger economy. I dont think China wants to control the region, influence should be enough for it. Thus there is space for Russia and China to "divide" the spoils

Jono said:

As it is, Russia is slowly warming up to BRI, at least not voicing opposition to it openly.

Click to expand...

BRI massively benefits Russia as well. But yes, Russia is reluctantly accepting it and are trying to connect it with their Eurasian Economic Union (correct name?) to further benefit it. Win-Win

Jono said:

Russia is already stretched quite thin squaring off USA in Europe, Ukraine, Syria, and the Middle East.

Click to expand...

Yes

Jono said:

It can do with some cooperation and support from China at the SCO, especially in the economic and development fields.

Click to expand...

Yes

China however needs to start linking these countries together to improve their connectivity. That means cross-border treaties and economic harmonisation rules in order to supercharge growth in the region. This is where Russia might not fully support it as it would stand to lose influencen.
However it is very impossible that China will just cut a deal with Russia and then both countries will join together for harmonising the region

Jono said:

thanks for the discussion

Click to expand...

You are welcome, I also enjoy it

Overbom said:

impossible

Click to expand...

Sorry, I meant *possible. Ran out of edit time

Jin Canrong did a pretty good analysis of the relationship now between the two nations that is short of a alliance. I think it's very suitable for both countries. A good political understanding is a must for two big neighbouring countries. Two of the three global powers you could say. Then comes military, economic and cultural aspects.

hullopilllw said:

But US is not there for the end purpose of nation building or to promote values. US' ultimate aim is for influence, economic interest and military power project, and to achieve that aim they have to establish a puppet government, through engineered democracy, which align Afghanistan national direction with US foreign policy objectives.

I had enough with the constant saying that US impose their values onto others for their own good, NO. The US use democracy as a means to subjugate nations into playing the servitute roles.

Click to expand...

+"Empire"
+"military Keynesianism"
(prof. Chalmers Johnson)

Overbom said:

Is SCO enough for China to unite the region economically? I doubt it.

What RCEP is for ASEAN region, SCO isn't for Central Asia. Here, China is being blocked by Russia as it considers this region in its sphere of influence.

Probably China will have to sit down with Russia and make concessions in order for it to form a (potential) unified economic block. Dont forget that Russia already has its Eurasian Economic Union (correct name?) for trading with Central Asia.

Its time for China to increased its interests there.
Russia is already punching way way above its weight, severely blocking/stopping China's influence from advancing in Central Asia

Click to expand...

That part of the world is still Russia's turf, so Beijing will need to work with Moscow, or the other way round because China is "the guy with money" on this sort of deal.

Russia needs the money and China needs stability in that region - there's common interest and viable deal to be make there.

Richard Santos said:

America’s defeat, in the sense of being unable to achieve anything, is not a variable. It has already occurred over 15 years ago. What is worse for China than America is America finally admitting to the irreversibility of the defeat and pulling out. Chinese position in the world would be better in 5 years If america remained in Afghanistan for another 5 years.

Click to expand...

Yes, it would have been better if the US had stayed in Afghanistan for longer.

Richard Santos said:

The optics of the manner of the pull out is certainly damaging in the short run. But the damage does not compare to the improvement in fundamental long term position vs China that the pull out facilitated.

Click to expand...

This assumes that the Taliban don't resume or support attacks on the US.
And that there is no long-term impact on how other countries view their alliance with the USA.

You can bet that China is telling Taiwan that they will abandoned by the USA.
The question becomes, is the US willing to fight China in a nuclear war over Taiwan?

supersnoop said:

Basically you are advocating a genocidal colonialism which is what the British did.
Mass internment, mass executions, etc.

Click to expand...

Not quite. No mass executions, but definitely mass internment and relocations.
And it's just a thought experiment, because the past is done.

supersnoop said:

Americans could have probably even won without the mass executions. However, it would have to basically run a American colony, instead of a corrupt pseudo-democratic government.
Given enough time, money, and effort, sure, it could've worked, but it was never going to happen.

Click to expand...

Yes, that's what I think as well.

The West Empire (New Roman Empire, Roman-Biblical Empire or Anglo-Empire 2.0) obsession with Afghanistan was the obsession with (1) Persia (2) Russia and China and (3) Pakistan

The craziest dream of the craziest fanatics (e.g. Bolton) was to destabilize Pakistan to give them reason to intervene

The Afghan puppet government has fallen because (a) it was a corrupt puppet government (b) because this story is a classic: brutal Military Domination and Reaction; Countryside versus City and (c) the Pakistani ruling class realized that it was talking to a blind and deaf Empire incapable of putting itself in the place of others