China's strategy in Afghanistan.

supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
Recently, it occurred to me that there is a scenario where the USA could have *won* Afghanistan, if the US had taken more elements from what the British did during the Malayan Insurgency.

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After the invasion, eventually the US set out to win *the hearts and minds* of the Afghan people in the villages.

But Pashtun identity (rural and religious) always saw them as foreign invaders.
That civilian population provided the base for the extremist Taliban to survive and then outlast the occupiers.

During the Malayan Insurgency, the British removed over 10,000 *suspected* insurgents without trial.
Plus the British set up mass internment camps to hold the insurgent-leaning civilian population for years for the following reasons:

1. To deny the insurgents support from a civilian population
2. To move the civilian population away from radical extremism

Of course, if the USA had tried to move millions of Pashtuns into camps, it would technically be in breach of the Geneva Accords.
But given the British (and others) already did this previously, and the US status as the sole global superpower, the USA could ignored human rights.

So one wonders.

Suppose the money funnelled to the Afghan warlords had been spent on camps providing healthcare and non-radical Islamic education, in order to promote a more tolerant and moderate Pashtun population. It would have been an immense social engineering exercise.

But would Afghanistan be better off today?
Basically you are advocating a genocidal colonialism which is what the British did.
Mass internment, mass executions, etc.

Americans could have probably even won without the mass executions. However, it would have to basically run a American colony, instead of a corrupt pseudo-democratic government.
Given enough time, money, and effort, sure, it could've worked, but it was never going to happen.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
?

Venting against China has serious consequences.

China (unlike Israel) has serious diplomatic, economic and military tools available to make its displeasure known.
Arab governments deal with public anger against a country they're dependent on by directing it against a country they're even more dependent on. Logic: 100.
 

Richard Santos

Captain
Registered Member
Everything you are talking is about hypotheticals.

If Taliban will turn against China
If Muslims actually are against China
If the Muslim people can unite against China
If Muslim Leaders will allow this
If.
If..
If...

The way you are thinking is that because something could happen then China shouldnt try at all.

China shouldn't get close with Russia because Russia might betray it

China shouldnt get Taiwan because it might fail

China shouldnt get close to Europe because ut might turn to the US

China shouldnt try to become a superpower because it might fail to the US

China shouldnt ...

There is a saying “You miss 100% of the shots you don't take"

So with all due respect, i find your arguments and claims on your previous posts as total bs
i never said china should not try any of those things. I said china should be realistic about the difficulties, the real capabilities of other players, and it’s own chances of success in each of these endeavor, and not blunder into the hyper-nationalist trap of thinking all stars are aligned for the imminent arrival of irresistible eternal chinese hegemony, and dismiss all those who might not favor such an outcome as morons or degenerates unable to effectively resist this outcome.
 

j17wang

Senior Member
Registered Member
Basically you are advocating a genocidal colonialism which is what the British did.
Mass internment, mass executions, etc.

Americans could have probably even won without the mass executions. However, it would have to basically run a American colony, instead of a corrupt pseudo-democratic government.
Given enough time, money, and effort, sure, it could've worked, but it was never going to happen.

No this has never worked. There has not been a single instance in history where an American run-colony was able to rise to developed status in the world. (and if you think the asian tigers are examples, please go re-read your history).

America cannot export its system abroad, because it doesnt actually work outside the continental US, which it has held onto with static borders for over 170 years.
 

Mohsin77

Senior Member
Registered Member
it’s not an accidental victory. it is inelegantly but successfully putting an end to an ongoing defeat.

I love how you sneaked in the word "success" when describing America's failure in Afghanistan. Your whole argument is that America's defeat is worse for China than it is for America, right? Makes sense, thanks.

And following your recommendation, as a Muslim, I will now immediately become anti-Chinese and be best-friends with Israel.
 
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FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
I think humanitarian aid would go a long towards having better relations. When at hunger, and you give a person food to eat when he was most vulnerable, he will forever remember you.

Hopefully China can start providing some emergency humanitarian aid soon as Afghanistan's economy is in free fall

If you support the Taliban in the process of it coming to power, you have no brain.

But if you sanction Afghanistan just because the Taliban are the governing force, you have no heart.

Aid in the face of genocidal sanctions is good for Chinese interests, just and moral.
 

sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
Americans could have probably even won without the mass executions. However, it would have to basically run a American colony, instead of a corrupt pseudo-democratic government.
Given enough time, money, and effort, sure, it could've worked, but it was never going to happen.

At this point I'm not even sure they could have "won" or even wanted to "win" more so than having a platform to destabilize China and Russia.

The Soviet Union achieved more in Afghanistan than the US could, despite Mujhaideens receiving tons of foreing money and weapons, something the US didn't have to face with the Talibans.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
If you support the Taliban in the process of it coming to power, you have no brain.

But if you sanction Afghanistan just because the Taliban are the governing force, you have no heart.

Aid in the face of genocidal sanctions is good for Chinese interests, just and moral.
No need to support Taliban. I have explained in previous posts why China shouldnt do this (for now)

Giving humanitarian aid doednt mean supporting Taliban. It is aid to the Afghan people. Yes, the Taliban will score political points with this but it is more important for China to connect with the people of Afghanistan by giving humanitarian aid.
This is the sort of huge soft power generated by the humanitarian missions that the US is undertaking around the world.

I dont know how long Afghanistan's economy will last before it collapses on its own and setting up a huge refugee wave.

As such is on China's, and other neighboring countries' interest that Afghan people are at least properly fed
 

Richard Santos

Captain
Registered Member
I love how you sneaked in the word "success" when describing America's failure in Afghanistan. Your whole argument is that America's defeat is worse for China than it is for America, right? Makes sense, thanks.

And following your recommendation, as a Muslim, I will now immediately become anti-Chinese and be best-friends with Israel.

America’s defeat, in the sense of being unable to achieve anything, is not a variable. It has already occurred over 15 years ago. What is worse for China than America is America finally admitting to the irreversibility of the defeat and pulling out. Chinese position in the world would be better in 5 years If america remained in Afghanistan for another 5 years.

The optics of the manner of the pull out is certainly damaging in the short run. But the damage does not compare to the improvement in fundamental long term position vs China that the pull out facilitated.
 
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