China's strategy in Afghanistan.

supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
At this point I'm not even sure they could have "won" or even wanted to "win" more so than having a platform to destabilize China and Russia.

The Soviet Union achieved more in Afghanistan than the US could, despite Mujhaideens receiving tons of foreing money and weapons, something the US didn't have to face with the Talibans.
Talk of a win was OP, not me.

That being said, totally disagree with what you say, at least as far as the original aims of the Afghan war.

It absolutely was 100% focused on securing America and crushing terrorism. Just look at all the compromises W. Bush made, rapprochement with Gadaffi, engagement with Assad, turning a blind eye to Dagestan and Chechnya, helping suppress ETIM. Only Iran, Iraq, and NK were untouchable. It was Obama that really screwed the pooch. He turned everyone back into enemies and surprise! Terrorists everywhere!
 

Richard Santos

Captain
Registered Member
Talk of a win was OP, not me.

That being said, totally disagree with what you say, at least as far as the original aims of the Afghan war.

It absolutely was 100% focused on securing America and crushing terrorism. Just look at all the compromises W. Bush made, rapprochement with Gadaffi, engagement with Assad, turning a blind eye to Dagestan and Chechnya, helping suppress ETIM. Only Iran, Iraq, and NK were untouchable. It was Obama that really screwed the pooch. He turned everyone back into enemies and surprise! Terrorists everywhere!

The initial entry into Afghanistan might have superficially conformed to what might be expected if crushing terrorism was the main aim, But in retrospect it is clear even at that time the Bush Administration was already opportunistically thinking of terrorism in terms of the cover and opportunity it provided for America to rampage through the Middle East reshaping it to facilitate direct American dominion over the middle of Euroasia.

But this was soon made manifest by the hasty shift of focus and weight of military effort from Afghanistan to Iraq when Taliban was not exactly even militarily totally defeated, because iraq was seen as a far bigger and more central prize that can be seized under the pretext of fighting terrorism. At the time the Bush administration did not even beat around the bushes, so to speak, in loudly hinting as soon as what it believed a rapid and inevitable total victory is achieved over Saddam Hussein, Iran, the next big prize, would be on the military invasion menu. Then Syria. This unraveled completely within a couple of years.

In the long run, the abject failure of that grand project in the Middle East would absolutely dwarve the impact of the failure in and later chaotic pull out from Afghanistan as far American influence goes. The only thing that saved America from the full effect of that failure was the unexpected diminution of importance of Mideastern oil and gas 7-8 years later.

Rather than harping on how big of a failure the recent events in Afghanistan betokens, The pullout from Afghanistan should instead be viewed as the final, long delayed, whimper that at long last wrapped up the thunder failure of the great American project to reshape the Middle East via invasion and regime change across the region that it embarked upon with such craven opportunism in the aftermath of 9/11.
 
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Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
America’s defeat, in the sense of being unable to achieve anything, is not a variable. It has already occurred over 15 years ago. What is worse for China than America is America finally admitting to the irreversibility of the defeat and pulling out. Chinese position in the world would be better in 5 years If america remained in Afghanistan for another 5 years.

The optics of the manner of the pull out is certainly damaging in the short run. But the damage does not compare to the improvement in fundamental long term position vs China that the pull out facilitated.

Actually I see plenty of opportunity that China has with Afghanistan. One that is playing out already, is Afghanistan will become a pariah state like Iran and Venezuela as the G7 does economic sanctions on it. The Taliban would have to play the China card here to keep its economy going, or once again, the country will be engulfed in another civil war. This will be another major opportunity for Russia too.

Also China can play its Pakistan and Iran cards with Afghanistan.
 

Mohsin77

Senior Member
Registered Member
America’s defeat, in the sense of being unable to achieve anything, is not a variable. It has already occurred over 15 years ago..........The optics of the manner of the pull out is certainly damaging in the short run.

You've done a lot more than just not achieve anything. You gave China 20 years to catch up, while you marched backwards.

"Optics" are the least of your problems. Case in point:

But the damage does not compare to the improvement in fundamental long term position vs China that the pull out facilitated.

You think your country and society is wiser today than it was 20 years ago? Is it better now at exploiting positional advantages?

Let me remind you, this happened just a few months ago:

Swarms of Trump supporters storm U.S. Capitol | Reuters.com
 
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Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Prophetic interview with Lee Kuan Yew about Afghanistan. "How on earth you are going build a state and when there is none before. They have been fighting with each other for so long. That is their problem why you want to make it your problem" Yup that is right. But they didn't listen unfortunately!

As the concerning effects of USA's withdrawal from Afghanistan grip the world, a 2009 interview featuring the late MM Lee Kuan Yew discussing the issue resurfaces. Find out what he had to say about US involvement in Afghanistan. Follow Mustsharenews.com for more videos like this.

 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
You can see in the coming months, that Western media will vilify the Taliban aka CNN and BBC, which is usually the first steps in justifying sanctions against the Taliban and the country in general. This is when the Taliban is trying a new course of portraying themselves as legitimate. Installing sanctions against Afghanistan is going to drive Afghanistan deeper into the China orbit and into BRI. This will also lead to Afghanistan seeking better relations with its Islamic neighbors, including Iran, Pakistan and former Soviet republics, which can solidify into a Central Asian (country)-stan economic and treaty bloc.
 

hullopilllw

Junior Member
Registered Member
Prophetic interview with Lee Kuan Yew about Afghanistan. "How on earth you are going build a state and when there is none before. They have been fighting with each other for so long. That is their problem why you want to make it your problem" Yup that is right. But they didn't listen unfortunately!

As the concerning effects of USA's withdrawal from Afghanistan grip the world, a 2009 interview featuring the late MM Lee Kuan Yew discussing the issue resurfaces. Find out what he had to say about US involvement in Afghanistan. Follow Mustsharenews.com for more videos like this.

But US is not there for the end purpose of nation building or to promote values. US' ultimate aim is for influence, economic interest and military power project, and to achieve that aim they have to establish a puppet government, through engineered democracy, which align Afghanistan national direction with US foreign policy objectives.

I had enough with the constant saying that US impose their values onto others for their own good, NO. The US use democracy as a means to subjugate nations into playing the servitute roles.
 

Jono

Junior Member
Registered Member
You can see in the coming months, that Western media will vilify the Taliban aka CNN and BBC, which is usually the first steps in justifying sanctions against the Taliban and the country in general. This is when the Taliban is trying a new course of portraying themselves as legitimate. Installing sanctions against Afghanistan is going to drive Afghanistan deeper into the China orbit and into BRI. This will also lead to Afghanistan seeking better relations with its Islamic neighbors, including Iran, Pakistan and former Soviet republics, which can solidify into a Central Asian (country)-stan economic and treaty bloc.
agree.
west has to vilify/demonize the new government of IEA to justify their political position. Unfortunately for the western leaders, Biden admitted openly that the Americans were in Afghanistan for American interests, building up was never their objective. Whatever righteous facade they were trying to put on was torn to shreds by Biden, hence their anger and frustration towards him.
fortunately for the oppressed countries of Venezuela, Iran and Afghanistan, China is now big and strong and MOTIVATED enough to provide support to them. Naturally they will look East for COVID vaccine, economic and infrastructure development. I expect the Shanghai Cooperation Organization will grow in number and in strength for collective benefits, like the RCEP signed by China with the ASEAN countries.
BRI is simply and purely a stroke of genius by Xi Jin Ping. It will shape the global geopolitical landscape in China's favour in the next 100 years, with or without American sabotage.
I am so happy to see China possessing such amazing and capable leaders.
Of course USA should be congratulated for having Biden at the helm..... ;)
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
But US is not there for the end purpose of nation building or to promote values. US' ultimate aim is for influence, economic interest and military power project, and to achieve that aim they have to establish a puppet government, through engineered democracy, which align Afghanistan national direction with US foreign policy objectives.

I had enough with the constant saying that US impose their values onto others for their own good, NO. The US use democracy as a means to subjugate nations into playing the servitute roles.
For all that you need a functioning state a puppet government for sure But what LKY said is basically you can't even create a functioning government when they keep fighting among themselves. No one said anything about US want to built democracy in Afghanistan . Please listen to the video before you comment!
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
I expect the Shanghai Cooperation Organization will grow in number and in strength for collective benefits, like the RCEP signed by China with the ASEAN countries.
Is SCO enough for China to unite the region economically? I doubt it.

What RCEP is for ASEAN region, SCO isn't for Central Asia. Here, China is being blocked by Russia as it considers this region in its sphere of influence.

Probably China will have to sit down with Russia and make concessions in order for it to form a (potential) unified economic block. Dont forget that Russia already has its Eurasian Economic Union (correct name?) for trading with Central Asia.

Its time for China to increased its interests there.
Russia is already punching way way above its weight, severely blocking/stopping China's influence from advancing in Central Asia
 
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