China's strategy in Afghanistan.

Richard Santos

Captain
Registered Member
Afghanistan is a small country but its position in US's hegemony is critical. A 20 year war that together with Iraq bankrupts US. The same kind of war killed USSR. If this war is a mere peripheral problem or inconsequential, then there is nothing existential.

If you define "existential" at the US territorial boundary, then China is just a peripheral problem. If you define "existential" as the US global hegemony, then Afghanistan is equally important as China, it is a milestone to contain China and Russia.

that is a stretch so epic songs will be written about it.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
that is a stretch so epic songs will be written about it.
US did not spend 20 years and 2 trillion USD on a peripheral problem. A successful puppet state in Afghanistan was crucial to their plan to dominate Central Asia and box Iran in from 2 sides, and eventually conquer Iran and control the Persian Gulf. Then they would have ultimate leverage over China's energy. It is too hard to go after China directly.

They failed because now Iraq is an Iranian ally and no matter what is the outcome in Afghanistan there won't be a puppet regime for them: VP Saleh already denounced Biden, the other side is Taliban.

They needed at least one to work: a puppet Iraq hostile to Iran or a stable puppet Afghanistan. both failed. their middle east was an colossal failure.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
They needed at least one to work: a puppet Iraq hostile to Iran or a stable puppet Afghanistan. both failed. their middle east was an colossal failure.
Not only did they fail to make them a puppet but instead, they managed to gift Iraq into Iran's hands, and they are now losing any influence they ever had in Afghanistan.

China is now wisely not recognising Taliban as it doesn't want to cut off relations with the pro-gov faction of Afghanistan. Better wait it out and push Taliban and Gov forces to negotiate and make a deal (which, China is doing right now)

China once again proves that the winning strategy is to actually not play at all and sit at the sides
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Not only did they fail to make them a puppet but instead, they managed to gift Iraq into Iran's hands, and they are now losing any influence they ever had in Afghanistan.

China is now wisely not recognising Taliban as it doesn't want to cut off relations with the pro-gov faction of Afghanistan. Better wait it out and push Taliban and Gov forces to negotiate and make a deal (which, China is doing right now)

China once again proves that the winning strategy is to actually not play at all and sit at the sides
It's actually amazing how big their failure was in Iraq, though it was a quiet failure. Iraq had threatened Iran since the Persian Empire days when they were facing off against the Ottomans then the British. Saddam Hussein was just the latest. This is literally the first time in 100 years that Iran's western border is secure.

They somehow didn't think that putting a democracy in place in a majority Shia country that suffered first under Saddam, then under occupation, then under ISIS terrorists, would probably make them turn to Iran.

In fact this failure is worse than Afghanistan, it just doesn't look as messy.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
It's actually amazing how big their failure was in Iraq, though it was a quiet failure. Iraq had threatened Iran since the Persian Empire days when they were facing off against the Ottomans then the British. Saddam Hussein was just the latest. This is literally the first time in 100 years that Iran's western border is secure.

They somehow didn't think that putting a democracy in place in a majority Shia country that suffered first under Saddam, then under occupation, then under ISIS terrorists, would probably make them turn to Iran.

In fact this failure is worse than Afghanistan, it just doesn't look as messy.
Agreed. I mean Iraq was actively using chemical attacks, nerve gas, against Iran lol
Thats how much they hated Iran.

And now as of magic, Iraq has fallen in love with Iran.
The US has for once acted as an empire of love and friendliness. Good job

As for Afghanistan we are still early stages. Lets wait to see if the US withdrawal happens without anyone messing up
 

Richard Santos

Captain
Registered Member
The one thing I'm wondering is how much control the Taliban is going to have over the media in Afghanistan. If the Americans can broadcast their propaganda at will, the Taliban is going to have a hard time ruling the cities.
last time the Taliban made it illegal to own TV, radio or computer, or a recorder with any records other than islamic call to prayer.
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
that is a stretch so epic songs will be written about it.
I only offered you two choices of definition because you have a track record of debating with ambiguous definitions. If you call the second choice "epic stretch", then you must answer the first choice. What should I take from your avoidance?
 
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taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
The one thing I'm wondering is how much control the Taliban is going to have over the media in Afghanistan. If the Americans can broadcast their propaganda at will, the Taliban is going to have a hard time ruling the cities.
Isn't it simple? Run it like any non western/democrazy country. I am sure there are enough capable people similar to their spokesperson who just gave an exclusive interview to CGTN. This may get somebody's nerve, but look at how Communist country and Iran etc. toke over the media in their early days in power.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
I think we're all asking a bunch of closely related questions that can be boiled down to a common core: Is the Taliban sane? The honest answer is that nobody knows yet. Priors would have us say no (leopards can't change their spots and all that), but the Taliban saw what their previous approach got them and should have no desire to go through anything like that again. There's no better answer at this time than "wait and see", unfortunately.
 
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