China's strategy in Afghanistan.

LesAdieux

Junior Member
We already know how the Taliban will act. Only among things that matter to China - they persecuted Hazaras who are genetically related to Chinese, massacred Tajiks (a recognized Chinese ethnic group), blew up Buddhist statues, banned many products which have dominant Chinese market share, etc.

During the secular Afghan govenment era of the past 20 years, Chinese had opportunities to do business and gather information in Afghanistan. Chinese did not have this opportunity in the 1990's under Taliban control.

A secular Afghanistan would have been a major market for Chinese goods while providing raw materials. Taliban run Afghanistan will ban many Chinese products again and will be hard to do business in.

Taliban can be a good friend of China.

Tajik is east Iranian people, Taliban has been fighting with them for a long time, it has nothing to do with China. blast Buddha is not very kind, but most won't give a shit. are you trying to say that Afghanistan under US thumb is better for China?
 

Mohsin77

Senior Member
Registered Member
From Pakistan's perspective, the Taliban were always an interim solution to a threat-vector on our Western Flank. Afghanistan before the Taliban was hostile to Pakistan. Since Independence, they believed that some of Pakistan's territory belonged to them, even though there's no practical basis for their argument. The biggest ethnic group in Afghanistan are the Pashtuns (15 million), but most Pashtuns are actually Pakistani (43 million). The minority population was claiming ownership of the majority. It was kind of like the case of the Taiwan government claiming 'ownership' of Mainland China.

Following the Soviet withdrawal, Pakistan obviously didn't want a return to the status-quo, and ceased the opportunity to secure its Western flank. We're already dealing with a foe many times our size on our Eastern flank. So Pakistan promoted a friendly group in Afghanistan, which was groomed in Baluchistan, funded by the Saudis and the US. This was the genesis of the "Taliban" (i.e. "student movement.") These guys were at least disciplined and united, and so easily swept aside the chaotic warlords of Afghanistan and ruled over their land with an iron grip. Most of their ways were rooted in ancient culture, not religion. They didn't care much for pan-Islamism or anything. They wanted to enforce their traditional culture primarily, and their own version of 'sharia'. There's a much larger issue here about how 'sharia' is really just corruption of Islam, where each sect and their local 'scholars' take only those parts of Islam which they want, and disregard the rest, trying to conform Islam to their local traditions (specifically, those exact traditions which the Quran is completely against.)

In any case, things may be different this time, hopefully. A new "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan" was born on August 15. This marked the defacto end to a 20 year "War on Terror" (or as we Muslims saw it, another "Crusade"), took place on the following day of the 16th of August, 2021 (or the year 1443 in our Islamic Calendar.) The Taliban have shown signs that they are open to evolution, as evidenced by their recent statements, such the following:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

It should be noted that they just won a 20 year war, that took the lives of over 150,000 Afghans, and could have easily decided to chop of the heads of everyone who worked with the Americans and go back to their ultra-regressive ways. Which army would stop them? But they have chosen to take a higher path in victory. That's a very good sign. I hope they continue down this path and wish their latest iteration the best. Happy Birthday Afghanistan (version 4.0.) You earned it.
 
Last edited:

solarz

Brigadier
It should be noted that they just won a 20 year war and could have easily decided to chop of the heads of everyone who worked with the Americans and go back to their ultra-regressive ways. Which army would stop them? But they have chosen to take a higher path in victory. That's a very good sign. I hope they continue down this path and wish their latest iteration the best. Happy Birthday Afghanistan (version 4.0.) You earned it.

Hopefully they realized that if they don't modernize, anybody could come in and kick them back into the mountains.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Taliban can be a good friend of China.

Tajik is east Iranian people, Taliban has been fighting with them for a long time, it has nothing to do with China. blast Buddha is not very kind, but most won't give a shit. are you trying to say that Afghanistan under US thumb is better for China?
They won't be permanently under US thumb even with the puppet government. See how Iraq's puppet government gained independence and allied with Iran for the first time since the Persian Empire days, while just 20 years prior they were enemies.

Afghanistan's geographic location means that in the long run they will be forced into China or Russia's sphere of influence by economic pull - as long as economics is important. And since Russia's economy is weaker than China's and it doesn't share a direct border, Afghanistan being pulled into the Chinese economic orbit would be relatively easy.

I am not sure if conventional economic considerations are important to the Taliban.
 

KenC

Junior Member
Registered Member
Don't blame everything on Taliban for the apparent oppression against women. Blame the US intervention to topple the Soviet backed Afghan government. Women were much freer then, with many wearing skirt and wore modern attires. Also, despite 20 years under American control of the country, the position of women hardly improved in Afghanistan. As someone said, it is more of tribal practice rather than strictly religious. Over the years, the Taliban probably has become less parochial and its attitude on women might change too.
 

LesAdieux

Junior Member
They won't be permanently under US thumb even with the puppet government. See how Iraq's puppet government gained independence and allied with Iran for the first time since the Persian Empire days, while just 20 years prior they were enemies.

Afghanistan's geographic location means that in the long run they will be forced into China or Russia's sphere of influence by economic pull - as long as economics is important. And since Russia's economy is weaker than China's and it doesn't share a direct border, Afghanistan being pulled into the Chinese economic orbit would be relatively easy.

I am not sure if conventional economic considerations are important to the Taliban.
Pakistan will be a good go between
 

Arnies

Junior Member
Registered Member
Taliban's main interests is a long peace and a pause after 40 years of war and focus on development and rebuilding. They wanna grow as a nation and progress forward into the next generations. This is what is on their minds and this is where you will see their focus remain. The gun war is over for them and is the development war and rebuilding war.. Technically their war has not ended yet meaning they will just transfer from real combat to the development arena. Their is desire to establish innovative defense industry.

Contracts china could win is in the construction area hence the country is mountainous we will need roads going thru mountains and logistical difficult road construction.

But aside from that there is some panic I sense everywhere perhaps it is the spamming media the war has now ended 3 days ago and the adrenaline is gone but IEA find themselves in a new war now which is called development Jihad and progress.. My early prediction is that you will be seeing Afghanistan making some great recovery that will amaze people in the next 15-20 years it will be completely visible by that time
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
We already know how the Taliban will act. Only among things that matter to China - they persecuted Hazaras who are genetically related to Chinese, massacred Tajiks (a recognized Chinese ethnic group), blew up Buddhist statues, banned many products which have dominant Chinese market share, etc.

During the secular Afghan govenment era of the past 20 years, Chinese had opportunities to do business and gather information in Afghanistan. Chinese did not have this opportunity in the 1990's under Taliban control.

A secular Afghanistan would have been a major market for Chinese goods while providing raw materials. Taliban run Afghanistan will ban many Chinese products again and will be hard to do business in.

You seem confused. I am not celebrating this or the Taliban. You also seem too sensitive about things out of China's power and jurisdiction. All the stuff you listed do not actually involve China. Banning many products which have dominant Chinese market share?? What are you? American?! lol Honestly this is really the pot calling the kettle black sometimes. You guys cannot see how you're behaving just like typical imperialist mindsets and enforcing your will and desire onto others? So what they don't use the kind of products you sell?! Did you forget the people who do buy those products have waged the biggest trade war in modern history on China? And you're here bitching about Taliban?

Please find some perspective. The Taliban holding power in Afghanistan simply mean for better or worse, we have no say in what happens in Afghanistan, not too different to how it was before and how it should be.

So with the Taliban victory can we say that the new Quad is DOA?
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

What has Quad resolve on Taliban got to do with Quad resolve on China? I don't think those two are equal or similar in any way.
 

Arnies

Junior Member
Registered Member
We need to start putting the work in and one thing we have to our favor is patience and consistency. So hopefully the target is to make 50 years progress in only 15 years and 75 years progress in only 20 years. Their will be developments in roads and buildings but the focus won't be likely building skycrappers just moderately good infrastructure but the biggest advancement and target will be the critical areas such as health care, local defense industry, education, tourism, economy..

We don't want spoilers during our development phase in the region or neighbourhood it doesn't align with our interests. Joining the Pakistani-Chinese nexus aligns with our regional interests and the BRI will be a welcomed project in IEA held Afghanistan.

IEA is like a newly hatched egg and it has to start growing naturally and hopefully it will happen at the speed of an actual duck
 

solarz

Brigadier
Please find some perspective. The Taliban holding power in Afghanistan simply mean for better or worse, we have no say in what happens in Afghanistan, not too different to how it was before and how it should be.

Actually, it means much more than that.

It means that Afghanistan will have a chance at stability, which means that it can join the BRI. Afghanistan as part of the BRI will give China easy access to two different ports, one in Iran and one in Pakistan.
 
Top